Thriller "A Bitcoin Zine"

The People’s Bank of China is poised to become the first major central bank to issue a digital version of its currency, the yuan, seeking to keep up with -- and control of -- a rapidly digitizing economy. PBoC’s official website, the word “Bitcoin” is not mentioned even once, although China is one of the top players in the crypto industry. The principles and technologies on the basis of which it is planned to create a state digital currency are also not explained. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, though, dealing in the digital yuan won’t have any presumption of total anonymity, and its value will be as stable as the physical yuan.

The What…

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has spoken about its commitment towards creating a digital version of the yuan.

According to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) deputy director Mu Changchun, head of the institution’s digital currency research institute, it will provide no scope for speculating on its value and it will not have the backing of a basket of currencies.

Mu recently said that China’s new national digital currency would operate on a two-tier system, with the PBoC on top, and commercial banks allowed on the second tier of the centralized system.

Mu made it clear that China is not launching a war on cash by introducing its own digital currency. Rather, Beijing intends for the new currency to complement the paper yuan.

The How…

In 2013 China invoked a prohibition of financial institutions from handling bitcoin transactions.

In 2014 China creates a special group for cryptocurrency research.

In 2015 China begins active studying of cryptocurrency-related regulatory experience from other countries.

In 2016 China first official announcement that it will create a national cryptocurrency.

In 2017 China creates a research institute setup to further facilitate the development of its national cryptocurrency. They also ban local cryptocurrency exchanges.

In 2019 PBoC moves forward with the creation of its national cryptocurrency on the heels of Libra, currency wars, trading disagreements with U.S. sanctions.

In 2020 - March The Bank of China was alleged to have completed the development of the currency’s basic functions and to have already moved on to drafting laws for its implementation. Screenshots of a purported pilot version of a wallet app for China’s forthcoming digital yuan are circulating on social media. According to Ling Zhang, the app is available for download in four cities selected for the initial trial — Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiongan. She highlights the inclusion of Xiongan, a new metropolis located on the outskirts of Beijing, which has been the site of a so-dubbed “smart city brain project.” The Xiongan New Area will have enhanced intelligent infrastructure that spans satellite information services, sensor recognition, a 5G network, super-computing and big data facilities. The city has already attracted the country's tech giants Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com and Baidu, with President Xi Jinping visiting on more than one occasion. PBoC digital currency is likely to be tested in these four regions that these locations were likely chosen because they are considered “tier 1 or 2” cities and “are home to tech talent,” especially Shenzhen, deemed the Silicon Valley of China.

BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.

In 2020 - April China appears to have been accelerating the development of the digital yuan, according to the BIS Bulletin (shown above) notwithstanding the COVID-19 crisis. China is reportedly working with private industry…

Today we discuss The Road to 20K

As you see on the TradingShot chart there are two key trend-lines on each of the previous 3 bitcoin cycles:The one in red displays the resistance trend-line of lower highs that start from the peak (all time high) of each cycle and ends once bitcoin breaks above it with a sustainable series candle closings. This trend-line contains the bear cycle in it as well as part (or most) of the accumulation phase.

The one in green displays the the support trend-line of higher lows that start from the time…

According to Ross Ulbricht, best-known for creating & operating the darknet market website Silk Road, Bitcoin’s price is headed downward. Using the Elliot Wave Theory for his analysis, Ulbricht believes that there might be more loss ahead, taking the price significantly lower.

Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the infamous Silk Road dark market, pointed out that Bitcoin’s price may be headed lower.

According to the popular Elliot Wave Theory, the price for the primary cryptocurrency could decrease to as low as $1,200. However, it’s worth pointing out that this is the bottom range of his…

What a Digital Dollar looks like…

We are on the cusp of a new monetary era. Central bankers around the world are increasingly worried that privately controlled digital currencies will relegate them to the sidelines of monetary affairs. To avoid this fate, central banks have been studying, and in some cases actively pursuing, issuing digital currencies of their own: so-called central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Today’s tech giants have the scale and consumer reach, not to mention the incentive, to create their own digital moneys that threaten to compete with or even displace the public moneys that central banks issue and manage.

The Peoples Bank of China is reportedly poised to launch its CBDC as soon as this year. If it succeeds, other major central banks are sure to follow. The stakes are especially high for the United States because a successful digital currency—whether controlled by a private company or by China—could imperil the U.S. dollar’s status as the dominant global currency, a source of “exorbitant privilege” for Americans.

Congress should authorize the Federal Reserve to implement a broadly accessible, U.S. dollar-based CBDC by giving the general public—individuals, businesses, and institutions—the option to hold accounts at the central bank, which we call FedAccounts. FedAccounts would offer all the functionality of ordinary bank accounts with the exception of overdraft coverage. They would also have all the special features that banks currently enjoy on their central bank accounts, as well as some additional, complementary features. The FedAccount program would put government-issued digital or “account” money on par with government-issued physical currency, transforming digital dollars into a resource that anyone can use.

The technology behind the digital dollar would be HyperLedger DLT, being designed to be fungible, meaning regardless of what central bank might end up minting its currency using the technology, every token will have the same value as the underlying asset, regardless of whether the token had been previously used for some nefarious purpose and will comply with the ERC-1155 token standard.

When it comes to money and payments, integration and interoperability are demonstrably better than fragmentation and balkanization. On top of that, distributed ledger technology, however ingenious its conception, remains extremely slow and inefficient compared to centralized ledger systems. For central banks, these cryptocurrency design features are a needless distraction.

The FedAccount system would be seamlessly interoperable with the existing system of money and payments and would rely on low-cost, reliable systems and technologies that the Federal Reserve has used successfully for decades. It would not charge interchange fees on debit card transactions, FedAccounts would reduce or eliminate an implicit tax on retailers and consumers.

The Digital Dollar effects on Bitcoin

Important to keep in mind. Bitcoin has the lead and will continue to have the lead in the digital currency space. The creation of the Digital Dollar at its core and infrastructure level isn’t really a challenge for Bitcoin. Bitcoin wins hands down.

China’s digital yuan has been in the works since 2014. The launch date, however, still remains unknown but is expected later this year. Industry insiders told The Global Times that China should accelerate the launch of its digital currency amid the coronavirus pandemic and economic slowdown. This will be Bitcoin first major test.

People’s Bank of China Digital Yuan, United States of America Digital Dollar, Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Currency Wars are upon us.

What happens to cash when the digital dollar is created, does it become worthless. Will we continue on using the same fiat money system that hyper inflates the digital dollar as well.

Currency devaluation, or debasement, has always been synony…

Today we discuss Bitcoin in April.

Charts by TradingShot

Bitcoin is currently on its 3rd straight bullish 1 week candle. We are rising for 3 weeks in a row. This move is happening straight after the $3900 flash crash and is taking a lot of traders by surprise. But should it? Will get back to this in a second but first lets dive into Bitcoin Fractals and why they are more important now in an uncertain market.

Fractals are not only abundant in nature, they are also the building blocks of trends. They are simple yet important…

This week, we have seen an unprecedented amount of liquidity of economic stimulus stabilize the economy, putting an end to weeks of free fall caused by the corona pandemic.

All the major US equities were up by around 9% to 12% this week—on Tuesday, the Dow Jones had its best day since 1938. Bitcoin had its least volatile week since its price cut in half on March 13. Bitcoin’s market value rose from $3,867 to $7,000 in the 13 days to March 25, this week Bitcoin has consistently hovered around the $6,500 mark. But the major question is What are miners doing?

Throughout…

The Rundown - Digital Dollar

People’s Bank of China Digital Yuan

USD Held World Wide

How many Satoshi’s are there in 21 Million?

2,100,000,000,000,000

After bitcoin becomes too expensive for the average person to deal with it in whole bitcoins (already the case for some people), we will begin dealing, speaking, and thinking in smaller units like millibitcoin and microbitcoin, but the most elemental bitcoin unit is the satoshi.

How many satoshis are there (or at maximum)? This many:

2,100,000,000,000,000

Which is found by multiplying the maximum 21 million bitcoin by the number of satoshis per bitcoin, which is 100 million.

How do you pronounce that huge number? Like this:

"Two quadrillion one hundred trillion."

5 Good Minutes

QE Infinity

The United States Federal Reserve has suggested it could print unlimited money. Here's what that means for Bitcoin. Traditional markets are in dire straits. The S&P 500 has dropped to levels not seen since 2017, and the Dow Jones has fallen to levels not seen since 2016. In response, the Fed is doing all it can to try to stop the carnage, promising $1 trillion in daily repo operations (loans to banks) and further quantitative easing—putting more money into the system.

The Hard Truth

What I think is really going on…

Fed Enlists BlackRock In Its Massive Debt-Buying Programs

The Federal Reserve tapped BlackRock Inc. to shepherd several debt-buying programs on behalf of the U.S. central bank as it works to revive an economy reeling from the spread of coronavirus.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, will serve as an investment adviser and manage assets for three separate programs, the New York Fed said Tuesday. Those include two new facilities the central bank announced Monday to provide liquidity to corporate borrowers, as well as purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities.

The Fed’s move to tap BlackRock carries echoes of the last U.S. financial crisis. In the fallout from the 2008 meltdown and its subsequent bailouts, the central bank turned to the asset manager to run portfolios of mortgage assets from Bear Stearns Cos. and insurer American International Group Inc.

Bitcoin Hash Rate..turn on the fog lights.

Bitcoin’s average block time spikes to 13 minutes for the first time since late 2018. Bitcoin has been consistently processing blocks more slowly as of late. For the past few days, the block time on the network has been more than 13 minutes. Blocks times are slowing down on Bitcoin’s network. Although block times have a tendency to stay stable, this is the first such spike since late 2018. The spike in late 2018 can be attributed to the drastic decline in Bitcoin’s price around that time. If you can recall, Bitcoin…

First we need to acknowledge that Bitcoin wasn't sold because it stopped working or because it was 51% attacked. It hasn't lost its market share either in speculative interest. People are still purchasing Bitcoin at its current price of $5K. Soon USD will be pumping again especially when lower interest rates and more stimulus kick-in this week from the FED. But make no mistake this is an orchestrated crash of all markets. The stops in supply chain and industries is creating this Recession possibly turning into a Depression especially with all the panic and hysteria going on in the mainstream news.

So what happened…

It just happened to be caught in a temporary selling frenzy that affected other assets as well. This is the both positive and negative affects of institutional investors entering the industry. Thus, the recent selling is really not due to any breakdown in Bitcoin fundamentals. When this ordeal is finally over, we can expect Bitcoin to get back to where it was before along with equities. But of course, due to Stock to Flow Bitcoin will continue climbing with greater impetus than equities over the longer term.

Coin Analysis: Bitcoin

What are the ramifications of the crash…

Bitcoin & Crypto industry is going to go through a world of hurt. Look for Project layoffs soon to occur, mass liquidation of alt-coins is imminent. Now is not a time to buy alts for speculation. Also expect some companies in the industry not to make it out alive. Further drops in price will likely occur in the Bitcoin market pre and post halvening.

Will need to watch the Miners the next few weeks as hash rates continue to increase and the price of Bitcoin drops. Profitable mining becomes a major problem very soon at these levels.

$4800 becomes the key resistance level…heres why.

If we break $4800 the next free fall is to $2800. This is still a possibility. The Energy Value model states that if all miners were to stop mining Bitcoin tomorrow, the power input would be zero and Bitcoin would be worthless.

The power required to fuel Bitcoin mining is driven by two parts, the hash rate to solve the SHA-256 algorithm and the energy efficiency of the mining hardware itself. In its early years, Bitcoin was mined on very electrically inefficient CPUs and GPUs.

The current era ASICs have energy efficiencies over 100,000 times greater than the average Bitcoin mining hardware of 2009. This means that a higher relative portion of the average miner’s electrical bill today is efficiently converted into hashing power.

To estimate a historic profile of Bitcoin mining hardware Energy Efficiency, the efficiency rates for 150 Bitcoin hardware models from Cambridge (ASICs only), BitcoinWiki (FPGAs) and Bitcoin.it (ASICs, CPUs and GPUs) were collated. All ASICs, FPGAs and Intel, AMD and Nvidia hardware were considered where Energy Efficiency (J/GH) was provided and where an estimated hardware release date was found. Common models were grouped and the average energy efficiency for that model calculated on an equal weight basis.

The daily energy efficiency of the Bitcoin network was then calculated as the equally weighted average of all hardware which was within 2 years of its release for CPUs/GPUs/FPGAs and within 1.5 years of its release for ASICs. This difference in depreciable lifespan was chosen because:

The hardware within model groups for CPUs and GPUs generally span several years

Bitcoin mining was generally less competitive in its early years

Other research also suggests a 1.5 year depreciation lifespa…

An Analysis on Bitcoin

Above is Bitcoin's current 2018-2020 and former 2014-2016 bull run cycle before the two Halving events (2nd and 3rd). The main goal is to now determine Pre-Pump Halving price and what levels we will be at around at the Halving and after.

Listen to the previous Thriller Insider for some more clarity on the Current Bull Cycle

Lets look at the numbers and 57.13% Bitcoin Theory…

Bitcoin always peaks at 57.13% higher than its last high in the same bull run give or take (+/- 5%).

Looking just at the current first half of this bull run, the first peak was $5,642; increase that by 57.13% and you get $8,865 (actual was $9,008), increase that by 57.13% and you get $13,930 (actual was $13,796), increase that by 57.13% and you get $21,888.

You can also confirm this theory from the last bull run. The first peak was at $314. If you apply 57.13% increase progressively, you get:

Projected Price using 57.13% Theory: $495 - $778 - $1,223 - $1,922 - $3,020 - $4,746 - $7,458 - $11,719 - $18,414.

Actual Price: $495 - $778 - $1,191 - $1,873 - $3,000 - $4,974 - $7,776 - $11,517 - $18,353.

The last bull run one was an anomaly at $20,089. Thinking this was just a pop off the top because of rush of the retail market buying in after $18,353.

Applying the 57.13% Bitcoin Theory to the rest of this run are as follows give or take (+/- 5%):

Projected: $21,888 - $34,393 - $54,042 - $84,916 - $133,429 $209,657 - $329,434.

But of course we may not make it through all those stages because buying will exhaust at some point (important to keep that in mind.)

Using the 57.13% Bitcoin Theory my safest guess would be the following give or take (+/- 5%):

$21,888 by December 2020

$34,393 by February 2021

$54,042 by May 2021

$84,916 by August 2021

$133,429 by October - December 2021.

This will go right inline with our previous research that Bitcoin will be jumping & dropping 10K levels after the halving.