Thriller "A Bitcoin Zine"

Bitcoin, Stock-to-flow Model:

Stock-to-flow Ratio:

Stock-to-flow Ratio for a commodity is defined as it’s years of inventory relative to annual supply. While the economic utility of a consumable good is created when it is destroyed or used up, the utility of investment assets lies in their possession and later resale. Industrial commodities therefore have low stock-to-flow ratios, this is to say, inventories usually only cover consumption demand for a few months. If there were no inventories at all, supply would have to correspond exactly to production and demand exactly to consumption. However, if there are…

US: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speech

Jerome Powell isn't sounding too dovish, once again saying the economy is performing well and is in a "good place." The Federal Reserve chair described today's employment report for August, where payroll growth slowed, as consistent with a strong labor market. Powell also said the consumer sector remains strong but that manufacturing is moving sideways to down. And the chair did cite risks to the outlook, including slowing global growth and low inflation. He said trade uncertainty is hampering business investment which has been a focal point for the Fed this year and was cited as a major factor in its July decision to cut rates for the first time this cycle. Whether the Fed cuts rates again at the FOMC later this month is less than certain, though Powell did say that the Fed is watching risks carefully and will act as appropriate. On the question of a possible recession, Powell said the Fed is not expecting nor forecasting one.

Digital Economy Report 2019

The rapid spread of digital technologies is transforming many economic and social activities. However, widening digital divides threaten to leave developing countries, and especially least developed countries, even further behind. A smart embrace of new technologies, enhanced partnerships and greater intellectual leadership are needed to redefine digital development strategies and the future contours of globalization.

This first edition of the Digital Economy Report – previously known as the Information Economy Report − examines the implications of the emerging digital economy for developing countries in terms of value creation and capture. It highlights the two main drivers of value creation in the digital era − digital data and platformization – and explores how current trends of wealth concentration could be replaced by trajectories leading to more equitable sharing of the gains from digitalization.

A and China leading the world

The report highlighted the dominance of the two superpowers, saying that the US and China accounted for “75 percent of all patents related to blockchain technologies, 50 percent of global spending on the “Internet of Things” (IoT), and more than 75 percent of the world market for public cloud computing.”

Not only that, but the two nations hold 90 percent of the market capitalization value of the world’s 70 largest digital platform companies. This is due to the major internet companies, like Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook heralding from the US and Tencent as well as Alibaba from China.

The aggressive expansion of these companies is no doubt a deciding factor in the dominance of the US and China. In terms of digital currencies, Facebook is the most notable in its currency move. Most of these companies have looked towards blockchain too, like Alibaba and Baidu.

Bitcoin Trading at Record Inverse Correlation With Yuan

Bloomberg has reported that the 30-day inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the yuan has reached a record low, implying that the trade war has forced Chinese investors to adopt BTC.

Today Car discusses what many economists believe that international demand for dollars (in the form of our debt such as Treasury Bills) allows the United States to maintain huge trade deficits, without fear of major US currency devaluation. But what were seeing now in this next downtown could be a paradigm shift. Quantitative easing and low — even negative — interest rates, which have become a way for central banks to prop up asset markets across the globe are at great risk.

According to Ray Dalio:

More specifically, central bank policies will push short-term and long-term real and…

Car reports on the Economic Policy Symposium 2019 that took place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Some of the world’s most powerful bankers and economic thinkers spent three days holed up at Jackson Lake Lodge, as they do each summer for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium. We discuss the views on Federal Reserve policy, the outlook for the U.S. economy, threats to the central bank's independence and what this all means for Bitcoin.

Dollar Cost Averaging Into Bitcoin

https://dcabtc.com/

CPI Inflation Calculator - Bureau of Labor Statistics<…

Car discusses the latest BlackRock Investment Institute MACRO AND MARKET PERSPECTIVES for AUGUST 2019 Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-macro-perspectives-august-2019.pdf

He specifically dives into the the portion of the report where they discuss Monetary Financing.

They also mention Cryptocurrencies as not playing a role in the next downturn.

For example, policy innovations in the next downturn will likely need to take inequality more directly into account to be politically palatable. Not all asset purchase programs are born equal when it comes to their impact on inequality. Policy responses that put money more directly in the hands of citizens might be more attractive. The rise of central bank-issued electronic money (not cryptocurrencies) might achieve these objectives in ways that were not previously possible. But this is also a slippery slope. A drift away from central bank independence – where the overall monetary policy stance is dominated by short-term political considerations – could quickly open the door to uncontrolled fiscal spending. The risk is real. This slippery slope leads to arguments that monetary policy can finance fiscal deficits – and that there is only a tenuous link between inflation and money-financed deficits, as some proponents “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) claim. The key is that coordination does not require giving up central bank independence. Instead, policy frameworks need to evolve to acknowledge that it is not the response itself that needs to be independent. The policy response in times of crisis will have to involve elements of both fiscal and monetary policy. But the contribution of monetary and fiscal authorities to the response can still be cleanly separated. The approach described on the next page provides a concrete example of how this can be done.

He also discusses the Big Four – a group of huge financial holding companies that control many sectors of the economy in the US and abroad. BlackRock being one of them. Other members of the Big Four also include: the Vanguard Group; State Street Corporation; and FMR Corporation (Fidelity). FMR Corporation as you know is extremely bullish on Bitcoin.

If the Bakkt blueprint works as planned, a panoply of new Bitcoin funds would tap the pent-up demand for the cryptocurrency, making it a safe and easy choice for everyday investors—notably millennials getting their first 401(k)s. Wall Street could then tap Bitcoin’s popularity as an alternative to stocks and bonds to generate giant trading volumes. And that flood of institutional buying and selling, in turn, would take the terror out of Bitcoin by smoothing its wild swings in price.

Cracking the 401(k) and IRA market for cryptocurrency would be a huge win for Bakkt. But…

Today we are talking Bitcoin and the Next Recession. This is not to scare you but to give you different scenarios on what could occur during the next global financial crisis like in 2008 (type level financial crisis.)

Go back and listen to Thriller Coin Talk: The End of Central Banking where I discusses why the world’s monetary system is being destroyed.

Well according to Barron’s

The chatter surrounding the timing of the next recession is only getting louder, with two-thirds of economists now predicting that we will see some sort of economic downturn by the end of 2020. As we prepare for what many consider to be the inevitable, I’m frequently asked by investors and colleagues: “How will a future recession impact the cryptocurrency industry?”

This new, decentralized asset class was born at the tail end of the housing crisis, and has yet to experience the full force of a recession or even lengthy bear market. What I can say with certainty, however, is that few industries will have more to learn and more to teach: because not all 2,000 cryptocurrencies are alike and, as such, not all 2,000 cryptocurrencies will respond the same way to market pressure.

I think we have to look at some key factors by zooming out.

1st) I think, short-term, definitely Bitcoin is going to go down. People need to withdraw that money. Also as the market trades down, people get more fearful and they'll be selling more Bitcoin and move it over to fiat to withdraw. In plain speak its a domino effect. Retail investors get more fearful and then as Bitcoin falls in value, people will wonder if Bitcoin is or isn't a store of value. Which continues to more and more selling. Rinse and Repeat.

2nd) Today is a Trial Run of sorts, it truly is…which is good (I promise keep reading.) Because it will really depend on how big this next global recession will be and how the Bitcoin market will react. Which today was a precursor, a sort of announcement to the world, “Hey look were heading towards a global recession.”

Starting this morning…BTC began to fall sharply from $10,862 to as low as $9,888 before traders bought the price back up above $10,000. It marks the worst single-day loss since July 16, approximately 30 days ago.

3rd) Pay attention to Miners and what they do. Mining will be incredibly interesting to watch and how that impacts the Bitcoin/crypto ecosystem. We need a set of miners that are able to operate at lower costs and what happens when other miners are unable to mine in this global recession? Does that increases the chances of a 51% attack? Which could lead to another major drop in price and sentiment.

4th) What happens to exchanges? Think about it…suddenly there's a major global recession and retail investors and holders of last resort are pulling money and everyone's pulling money…at the same time from multiple exchanges? Do we really know what the deposit ratio is for Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase? Do they know? What happens if everyone suddenly pulls at the same time from some of the biggest exchanges? Can we cover it all? Will we be paid in Tether or USDC?

5th) Finally Bitcoin needs this challenge. Yes that’s right I said it. We need this challenge. Bitcoin / Crypto as an industry needs to survive this next recession, this is not being talked about in the industry and is not really being considered, we need to have these conversations now…to prepare.

Show Note Promises:

The packet of slides sent to clients early this week, from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. technical analyst Sheba Jafari. Interesting, she brightly predicated last years fall under 5K in February.

To view the full document check out the link below. https://www.scribd.com/document/421604963/…

By October 2019, the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to decide whether to approve two bitcoin ETF applications. Filed by Bitwise Asset Management and VanEck, these ETFs would give investors a simpler way to gain exposure to bitcoin cryptocurrency. Approval doesn’t mean immediate launch—that could take time. But if approved and launched, should you invest in it?

How big can the ETF market become?

In 2017 was a record year for the global ETF market. Assets invested in ETFs and other exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached a new all-time high of $4.8 Trillion. “So far, assets in global ETFs have doubled every five years,” says Bryon Lake, head of international ETFs at JP Morgan Asset Management. “So can we reach $10 Trillion in assets in 2022, compared to the current $5trn? It’s a stretch but it’s entirely possible.”

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission again delayed a decision on approving three Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, dealing another blow to those in the cryptocurrencies community holding on to the belief that a favorable decision was imminent. The regulator postponed until October a ruling on whether listing rules can change to allow the two funds to start trading. Decisions for both the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust, which wants to track the 10 largest digital tokens, and the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust.

Car discusses Bitcoin accumulation and breaks down his take on how it should be done.

He also discusses Bitcoin in coin analysis, and the effect of the Bitcoin ETF on the 19th of August.

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The term “Black Swan Event” describes certain events in history so profoundly unexpected and massive in scale, that they fundamentally changed the course of history. There are good Black Swans and bad Black swan. One black swan event was perhaps the genesis of bitcoin’s birth: The subprime mortgage crisis which almost brought down the entire banking industry.

Economic storm clouds have long been gathering on the horizon, and lightning struck this week with the Dow erasing two months of gains, and the Chinese yuan falling to a level not seen since 2008. With Bitcoin surging, is the digital currency turning into a safe-haven asset?

Bitcoin is now the 11th largest money in the world, and it obtained this with only a nine-page paper created anonymously fueled by a grassroots movement. Millions of people have chosen a bank with no CEO, office or marketing department and it should absolutely blow your mind and scare you at the same time.