Tian Talks

A wonderful conversation with one of the greatest investors of all time - Howard Marks. 

The consensus believes that inflation is transitory. To be above average, the investor must bet against the consensus, correctly. This video outlines some possible reasons why the consensus bet could be wrong.

Will the high prices of homes, and other commodities become more permanent? If they do not, expect a market crash. If prices maintain, it is unlikely that incomes will keep up, though, rent will likely rise.

War is intrinsically bad for an economy. But large-scale wars seem more and more likely. So how do you position yourself during war?

The carbon tax is annoying, but other forms of income taxes are more annoying. If both cannot be abolished, it would only make sense to move from one tax to another.   Although there is already a rebate for a carbon tax in many countries, It would be much easier just to reduce provincial/state income taxes or the federal income tax, if the carbon tax is implemented nationwide.

Interest rates are low. So low that they cannot go much lower. This episode outlines where monetary policy and fiscal policy could be headed in the next recession. 

Undoubtedly, Technology has boosted productivity in many fields. Much unskilled labor is being replaced by technology. But will active investing also be replaced by robots computers?

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/investing-without-people.pdf

An Interview with the Leader and Founder of the People's Party of Canada, Maxime Bernier, on issues facing the Canadian economy, and how to fix them.  

In some areas we agree, others we disagree.    

We talk about unpopular topics such as debts and deficits, inflation and other forms of taxation, monetary policy, and more.

Many today, now including the Fed, fear that inflation may not be so transitory. But today's inflation is not what should be feared. Tomorrow's monetary inflation is the real scare. I also go deeper into problems within the repo market.