Top Traders Unplugged

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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00:00 – Why trend following isn't crash insurance
01:05 – Can investment flows create lasting market edges?
02:33 – Philippe Jordan and the evolution of CFM
08:06 – What scientific models miss during extreme market crises
13:56 – Why CFM moved beyond traditional trend following
16:28 – Scientific rigor and the growing power of technology
20:51 – Why investment culture matters as much as technology
25:05 – How AI agents are transforming quantitative research
28:29 – Balancing model robustness with diversification
33:13 – The case for systematic investing beyond equity returns
42:08 – Alternative markets and the search for genuine diversification
50:48 – Knowing when human judgment should override the models
55:07 – How CFM has reinvented trend following
58:36 – What investors should realistically expect from trend following
01:02:23 – The long-term reality of trend following returns

The post Why Trend Following Isn’t Crash Insurance ft. Philippe Jordan appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

00:00 – Introduction and why the bond market matters again
02:13 – How the AI boom changed the market regime
06:41 – Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?
10:38 – An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?
17:18 – What happens if earnings start to mean revert
22:15 – When the stock market starts driving the economy
28:55 – Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities
38:39 – Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?
42:21 – Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap
45:30 – What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market
52:44 – How to prepare for a market you can’t time
58:20 – Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds
01:02:20 – Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating
01:05:54 – Why currency volatility could matter much more

The post How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on X.

Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.

00:00 – Why investors tend to get into strategies too late
00:53 – Introducing Patrick Welton
02:36 – From medicine to professional trading
04:33 – Commodities Corporation and lessons from Paul Tudor Jones
11:17 – How managing outside money changes everything
15:26 – Why volatility targeting became important for managed futures
19:53 – Should managers give investors what they actually want?
25:33 – The four S’s of building a trading system
30:53 – Replication and whether cheaper really means better
34:59 – Where trend following returns actually come from
41:15 – Why short-term trading requires a different kind of edge
45:21 – Have multi-strategy funds changed trend following?
49:52 – The biggest misconceptions about trend following
55:09 – How do you know when a strategy has reached capacity?
58:27 – Market regimes, robustness and the importance of staying the course

The post Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow Danielle on X.

00:00 – Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters
02:25 – Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve
05:13 – The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers
07:52 – Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing?
10:00 – Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy
17:53 – Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s
23:02 – Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability
29:27 – Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook
37:34 – Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt?
43:06 – Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention
45:56 – Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence?
49:59 – Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle?
51:22 – Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future

The post Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

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Follow Lyn on X.

00:00:03 – Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting
00:01:28 – Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion
00:02:23 – Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance
00:05:31 – Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics
00:06:20 – Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion
00:13:42 – Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege
00:18:29 – Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation
00:24:25 – Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences
00:30:20 – What happens if dollar dominance weakens
00:34:16 – Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s
00:41:47 – Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law
00:44:17 – AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses
00:56:08 – Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets
01:03:34 – Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto
01:09:42 – Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook

The post Fiscal Dominance, Dollar Power, and the Politics Driving Markets ft. Lyn Alden appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on X.

01:40 – Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career
03:01 – From tennis to trading and early market exposure
06:10 – Opening range breakout and early momentum edge
08:04 – Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time
14:21 – The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets
17:53 – Are markets changing or just the participants
20:34 – Liquidity events and large player behavior
24:14 – The role and limits of technical analysis
32:44 – Model decay and adapting systematic strategies
39:17 – Execution as a primary source of edge
40:40 – AI, automation, and the future of trading
51:18 – Effort vs result and the meaning of volume
56:56 – Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?

The post Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow Neil on X.

01:28 – Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now
03:37 – What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works
10:26 – “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?
16:42 – Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat
20:17 – Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error
26:43 – Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change
33:31 – The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals
39:39 – Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history
45:28 – Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate
48:12 – Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges
52:43 – Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question

The post The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow Ben on X.

00:00 – Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting
02:18 – Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins
04:11 – Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game
06:15 – Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis
08:18 – Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal
11:16 – Mapping meaning and truthy stories
15:00 – LLMs as operating systems, not oracles
18:01 – Giving money back and when models stop working
21:16 – Applying narrative tools beyond markets
24:10 – Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations
30:43 – Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care
33:29 – Dormant stories and volatility discovery
34:26 – The sell America narrative and capital flows
40:05 – Common knowledge and reflexivity
45:44 – Regime change, multipolarity, and narrative dominance

The post Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on X.

00:00 – Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda
04:09 – From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence
09:32 – Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation
14:48 – Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification
19:55 – Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression
25:21 – What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha
30:44 – Trend as a systematic return stream and why BlackRock entered the ETF trend space
35:58 – Breadth, capacity and why market selection matters more than cocoa
41:12 – Defensive alpha explained using a credit lens on equities and crisis behaviour
46:27 – Execution, implementation alpha and using BlackRock’s liquidity river
51:39 – Constraints of wrappers, leverage limits and designing strategies for ETFs
56:54 – Growth of liquid alternatives, 50 30 20 and replacing the old 60 40 mindset
01:02:10 – Equity concentration, big tech, AI and the need for uncorrelated return streams
01:07:32 – Whole portfolio thinking, total portfolio approach and final takeaways

The post What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.

IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Cem on X.

Follow David on X.

00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.
00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.
00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.
00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.
00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.
00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.
00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.
00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.
00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.
00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.
00:37:48 – Euro FX vol: the paradox of cheap risk.
00:44:07 – Demographics and the quiet mathematics of decline.
00:47:46 – The “Hunger Games” for global savings begins.
00:52:57 – Lessons from 1997: FX and gold vol as survival trades.
00:56:11 – The anti-fiat portfolio—Bitcoin, gold, and long vol.
01:01:13 – Closing reflection on resilience as freedom.

The post The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.