Total Money Management

Steve and Tom are flying without Jacob this week, covering the week ending 16 October 2026.

They open with the French supermarket chain whose freezers went from minus five to fifty degrees, blamed on a cyber attack and actually caused by software nobody bothered to update, then the Norwegian army’s Hertz hire cars and what the data trail says about how little of modern life we actually control. From there: French borrowing costs at their highest since 2002 with debt near 300 percent of GDP and no eurozone bailout coming, why Australia’s government debt is among the lowest in the developed world and what that means for an economy leaning on private borrowing, unemployment ticking up to 4.6 percent, and an ASX that has gone precisely nowhere all year.

The second half is the one to stay for. Steve walks through John Templeton’s dynamic allocation framework: more in stocks when markets are cheap, less as they get expensive, and what that implies with the CAPE sitting at 42. Plus why ugly and cheap usually beats comfortable and expensive, why rebalancing needs a cash buffer, and the Brazil trade that took four years to go nowhere.

There are charts this week, so grab the document in the show notes.

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This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Reports of a plague in Russia, Europe and China in a trade standoff, and the Middle East pulling in more players. Then the question we get most: how do you invest when the CAPE is 42? Steve, Tom and Jacob look at Australia's recession risk, government deficits and falling Gold Coast rents. They finish on timeframe, volatility and action, and why buy and hold is not the only way to be long term.In this episode:Reports of a pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia, and France in the headlines againEurope asking China to cut car exports, and what comes nextThe Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan pact and the HouthisWhy Steve thinks Australia is heading toward a recessionProperty, investor equity and falling rents on the Gold CoastHow to think about investing when the CAPE is 42Using simple rules, like the 200-day moving average, to think about drawdownsNext week: Templeton's market-cycle diagram and a deeper dive into short, medium and long-term strategiesWork with us:The Three Wells framework: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/The-Three-Wells-CCThe TMM Wealth Journey, 12 months of portfolio building: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Direct-Landing-PageSignals & Noise Premium, the full weekly issue and Weekly Video Review, $9.99 per week: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkoutFree investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-typesLeave a review to help us grow.This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Views expressed are opinions on current events, not recommendations. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Reports of a plague in Russia, Europe and China in a trade standoff, and the Middle East pulling in more players. Then the question we get most: how do you invest when the CAPE is 42? Steve, Tom and Jacob look at Australia's recession risk, government deficits and falling Gold Coast rents. They finish on timeframe, volatility and action, and why buy and hold is not the only way to be long term.

In this episode:

• Reports of a pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia, and France in the headlines again
• Europe asking China to cut car exports, and what comes next
• The Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan pact and the Houthis
• Why Steve thinks Australia is heading toward a recession
• Property, investor equity and falling rents on the Gold Coast
• How to think about investing when the CAPE is 42
• Using simple rules, like the 200-day moving average, to think about drawdowns
• Next week: Templeton's market-cycle diagram and a deeper dive into short, medium and long-term strategies

Work with us:

• The Three Wells framework: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/The-Three-Wells-CC
• The TMM Wealth Journey, 12 months of portfolio building: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Direct-Landing-Page
• Signals & Noise Premium, the full weekly issue and Weekly Video Review, $9.99 per week: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkout
• Free investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types

Leave a review to help us grow.

This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Views expressed are opinions on current events, not recommendations. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

The RBA has raised rates again, property owners are weighing whether to sell, and a listener is rebalancing heifers. Against that backdrop, Jacob and Steve go through a risk hierarchy special.

They start with how the industry defines risk (volatility and age-based risk tolerance) and ask whether that definition holds up. From there they work through Bessembinder's research: a tiny share of US stocks has created most of the wealth since 1926, and the odds of consistently picking those winners are very low. They also cover ergodicity and Nassim Taleb's casino example, why a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover, how the CAPE ratio and valuations shape how much you put into any market, and why defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and energy have historically been steadier than growth.

The theme throughout: building knowledge around not losing money, rather than chasing the win.

In this episode:

• The RBA rate rise and what it means for property
• How the industry defines risk, and why it is questionable
• Bessembinder's studies on stock picking
• Ergodicity and why the path matters
• Sector rotation and defensive sectors
• The barbell approach to speculation

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Is Australia exposed to a diesel supply shock? Why does Greenland matter to the US military? And are AI companies actually making money? In this week's Signals & Noise (week ending 25 September), we cover the Donroe Doctrine, oil price swings and Strait of Hormuz rumours, rising memory chip costs, and why the AI business model faces a compute problem.

We also look at why markets spend roughly 75% of the time in a drawdown, what that means for cash and rebalancing, and why the S&P 500 is close to setting the longest secular bull market on record on 20 October.

👉 FREE MASTERCLASS: How to Build an Antifragile Portfolio | Wednesday 30 September, 7pm Brisbane time
Register here: https://totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile

This podcast is general information and education only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Gold Coast broker Joel from Sunshine Finance joins Steve and Jacob to talk about the risks he sees on the lending front line, from property developments to private credit offers promising big returns.

Joel comes from a construction background and says no before he says yes. He explains why commercial and asset finance rates move differently to home loans, why property development is riskier than it looks, and why any promised return needs a hard look at where it actually comes from. He also covers inflated loan applications, dealer finance where the repayments don't match the advertised rate, and what brokers without the right accreditations can mean for clients.

We finish on what it all says about the cycle: rising fuel and living costs, stressed builders, and why cash flow and value matter more when markets get harder.

Find Joel on Instagram: Joel.sunshinefinancebrokers

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Masterclass link: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile

25 years since 9/11, and the Middle East is heating up again. Steve and Jacob break down the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iran's economic squeeze, and oil pushing toward $100 a barrel, then dig into why avoiding big drawdowns matters more than chasing the top, with CAPE sitting at 42 and Taleb's black swan lens applied to markets.

Free live masterclass, How to Build an Antifragile Portfolio, Wed 30 Sept, 7pm AEST. Link in bio.

Total Money Management, AFSL 568642. General information and education only, not financial advice. Does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Seek advice from a licensed advisor.

FREE WEBINAR LINK:

https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile?cid=7c7b1153-bccd-4fad-aef2-c3812804fe4a

This week Steve, Tom and Jacob open with three headlines that are more connected than they look: Iran calling for resolution under the weight of sanctions and inflation, the link between immigration and wage suppression in Australia, and house prices falling across every capital city except Darwin.

The CoreLogic numbers for August tell the story. Sydney down 4.7% for the quarter, Melbourne down 3.9%, and commentators now calling for falls of 10%. The quarterly picture is negative almost everywhere, and the annual gains in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are shrinking fast.

From there the conversation turns to one of the most misunderstood positions in investing: holding cash. Most investors feel like they are losing by sitting in cash, but it is the opposite. Cash equals options. It is exactly how Warren Buffett was able to extract a 10% preferred dividend and warrants at $8 from Bank of America during the GFC. That deal was only available to the person with the money when nobody else had any. Buffett made $500 million on the dividends alone.

We also walk through why buy and hold fails when you measure returns across a full market cycle, from low point to low point. The secular bull from 1982 to 2000 delivered 666%. The bear market that followed wiped out 59% of it. Once you add fees, inflation and tax, the full cycle return was close to zero.

And then the part that changes how most people think about property versus stocks: rebalancing. You cannot rebalance a house. If it falls 20%, you sit and hope. With a diversified stock portfolio you can harvest winners and add to losers, and the maths show that rebalancing turns a flat market into a positive return. We walk through the example with two assets, one up 25% and one down 20%, and show how the rebalanced portfolio gains over 5% while the buy-and-hold portfolio gains nothing.

This is why we think stocks are a better long-term investment. Property will have its day, but over time the ability to rebalance between uncorrelated assets leads to higher compound returns.

New episode out every Monday. If you are finding these useful, a follow on Spotify or a subscribe on YouTube genuinely helps us grow.

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Steve, Tom and Jacob
Total Money Management

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

150 episodes. Over three years of cutting through the noise together. To mark it, Steve, Tom and Jacob run through this week's biggest stories: new US sanctions on Iran and what they mean for oil, why Australia's fuel security is more fragile than the export numbers suggest, the real story behind US bond yields, and the US-Canada tariff standoff.

They also dig into why private credit keeps making headlines and what a major builder collapse says about the sector.

Then it's Watch Your Edge: why the stock market is such an expensive place to find out about yourself, how the Enneagram helps TMM coach clients through volatility, and why "trying harder" is often the worst response to a market that's moved against you.

Thanks for three years of listening. Here's to the next 150.

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This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

This week Steve, Jacob and Tom cover the shifting global order, why America is pulling back from being the world's policeman, and what that means for trade, tariffs and geopolitics. They also break down new bank lending data out of China, the risks building up in private credit and AI infrastructure financing, and why they remain cautious on the sector despite the hype.

Closer to home, the guys dig into the Australian property market: why investor loans have dried up, what the end of negative gearing incentives on new builds really means, and why immigration is a lazy explanation for price growth. They finish with a reminder on why blanket statements about "average returns" in property and super are misleading, and why understanding the assumptions behind a forecast matters more than the number itself.

Topics covered:

• The renegotiation of the global order and what it means for investors
• China's new bank loans and the state capitalism model
• Private credit, AI infrastructure debt and where the risk is building
• Australian property: investor loans, negative gearing and interest rates
• Why "average return" statistics can be misleading

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.