If House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi seems desperate in her partisan maneuvering these days, it’s because the House that she now leads looks like a lock for the GOP in 2022.
The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in the midterms following their inauguration. President Obama’s Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. In 2018, President Trump’s Republicans lost 40.
Redistricting will take place over the course of the next 18 months—throwing a wrench into the gears of prediction models, but one that favors Republicans.
But the GOP has the advantage here: The Brennan Center reports that Republicans will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats.
Yes, gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity.
The bottom line is this: the Democrats’ meager nine-seat House majority is likely to evaporate in the midterms.
Look for California’s Kevin McCarthy to be House speaker in 2023.
It can’t come soon enough.
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