2022 was a down year for markets, which is a bad sign for the economy. Investors, unlike pundits and politicians, have skin in the game.
So, if they are wrong, they suffer real economic consequences. Markets are better forecasters than economic experts—yes: better than people like me.
When risk-sensitive investments are down much more than safer ones, this is a serious recession signal. The S&P is down roughly 20 percent. Stocks are down more than bonds. Risky bonds are down more than safe ones. Large tech companies are down about twice as much as the S&P.
Consumer discretionary companies—like vacations, jewelry, eating out—are down much more than consumer staples—like groceries, cleaning supplies, and toothpaste. Investors are betting on necessities.
When the best performers of the year are recession hedges, inflation hedges, and tax shelters, it says a lot about where things are headed. For America, it’s not good.
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