While mortgage rates are starting the week lower compared to the last, they are still near their highest levels in 20 years. But home values don’t seem to be dropping as a result. Housing inventory remains low and as long as that remains the case, we can expect a continued “stalemate” between lending rates and home prices.
If you want to be optimistic, there is some evidence that the worst is over. Mortgage News Daily is reporting that “the balance of recent Fed comments suggest the Fed is done hiking rates unless inflation flares up in an unexpected way. As of Friday 10/20/23, the market saw next year's Fed Funds Rate about a quarter of a point lower.”
The 10yr Treasury at 5% is an important psychological level as it becomes an attractive entry point for bond buyers, which puts resistance/a ceiling at 5% and could help prevent higher mortgage rates for borrowers. We all wish we had a magic 8-ball and could predict the future, but the FED’s future actions will be driven by economic data.
The next FED rate announcement is on November 1st which means we are now in the scheduled “blackout” period and shouldn’t expect drastic movement until next week. Of course, “shouldn’t” is not the same as “won’t” and we continue to watch the charts.
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