Trade Matters

Our latest mid-year Trade Confidence Index (TCI) survey results, reflect the pervasive sense of confusion and turmoil being felt by Canadian businesses, exporter or not. The overall index dropped for a second consecutive time, down nearly eight points, to 69.1, a level well-below its historical average of 73.2.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/exporter-trade-confidence-gloomy.html

The cultural sector contributed more than $57 billion to Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 and supported nearly 673,000 jobs across the country. However, there is still untapped potential. There are anywhere between 2,400 and 7,800 Canadian cultural goods and services producers who could sell abroad, but aren’t yet engaging in international export activity. Together, they could generate up to $6.4 billion in annual export revenues.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/canada-cultural-sector-export-potential.html

Are the 2000s shaping up to be the millennium of tail risks? The 9/11 terrorist attacks, a near-collapse of the global financial system, a resurgence of populism in developed economies, a pandemic-induced shutdown of global industry, war in Europe. And we’re only getting started.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/instability-triggers-in-plain-sight.html

2022 was supposed to be different, to be welcomed with cautious optimism. We envisioned a global economy firmly on its recovery trajectory, and risk stabilizing, albeit at a higher level. Instead, the first quarter of this year has been dominated by the conflict in Ukraine, with shockwaves felt far and wide.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/ukraine-conflict-increases-country-risk.html

The war in Ukraine threatens energy supplies to Europe, has upended confidence and thrown into question the continent’s ability to restore growth and stability.

Across the pond, inflationary pressures far outweigh fears of a growth slowdown, for now at least, and questions abound about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to orchestrate a soft landing. However, a large, admittedly less visible segment of the global economy, faces concerns of a more existential nature.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/less-visible-victims-of-war.html

Since the onset of the pandemic, global supply chains have gained a newfound prominence in pop culture. Gone are the days when only a small group of professionals worried about supply chain logistics.

This week, we look beyond the current disruptions caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine and delve into the broader supply chain vulnerabilities facing Canadian companies, including the implications across key sectors.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/supply-chain-vulnerabilities.html

Canada is often touted as being one of the best places to live, work and start a business—and in a lot of ways, it lives up to that image. A closer look at our business and economic competitiveness, however, reveals a slightly different reality. What do commercial competitiveness indicators tell us about Canada’s strengths and weaknesses, and possible strategies to help realize the full potential of this great country?

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/canada-competitive-business-environment.html

Tight employment conditions are forcing businesses to up the ante, in their efforts to attract the critical talent to meet growing customer demand, putting upward pressure on salaries, wages and benefits. Where have all the workers gone? And what does this apparent shortage tell us about future labour market dynamics?

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/tight-labour-conditions.html

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine is inflicting widespread casualties that’s resulting in a humanitarian catastrophe. The economic fallout of this crisis is having reverberations around the world. EDC Economics continues to monitor developments—including the duration, intensity, and location of conflict, the terms of any negotiated settlement, as well as ongoing sanctions and trade restrictions taken by both Russia and the West—as we update our forecasts.

To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/economic-fallout-ukraine.html