Trade Policy Decoded

In this episode of TPD, Peter and Pru talk to David Latina, Australia’s Anti-Dumping Commissioner, about the work of the ADC. The episode delves into the basics of the ADC’s purpose, operations and how business can access ADC services. The discussion explores how the ADC balances various competing interests, especially importers vs domestic interests, the recourse aggrieved parties have to legislated appeal mechanisms, and where the interests of consumers fit in the ADCs work. Pru, Peter and David also look at how the ADC’s mandate is expanding to enable it to better assist Australian businesses impacted by shifts in trade flows caused by new tariffs and ongoing industry policies.

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In this week’s instalment of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter host special guest Professor Elizabeth Thurbon to discuss the importance of Green Energy to Australia and newly emerging concepts in Green Energy Statecraft. Having opened and Directed UNSW’s Green Energy Statecraft Project, Professor Thurbon has explored these concepts in depth and provides potential methods that Australia may be able to use in pursuing the frontiers of a green transition. Talking with Peter and Pru, she outlines the national security objectives which would be achieved through pursuing this statecraft, what it would mean for Australia’s trade flows, and how such initiatives might work in a changing international system.Find more analysis on the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠IIT ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn Page and ⁠⁠ACITI ⁠website!

In this first episode for 2026, Peter and Pru look at the key developments likely to impact trade policy in the coming year. They break these down into three areas. The first is US domestic factors likely to constrain President Trump’s trade unilateralism. These include US inflation, US bond and stock market fluctuations, the US Supreme Court’s decision on the President’s use of IEEPA powers to impose tariffs, and US Congressional elections in November. Pru and Peter then look at Canadian Prime Minister Carney’s invitation to middle powers to work together to counter the impact of trade unilateralism by the major powers. Pru and Peter explore the scope for middle power cooperation as well as the difficulties in achieving it. Peter and Pru then turn to China and the potential for China’s domestic economic developments and international actions to impact global trade. They finish with a quick look at how Australia is placed and what the Australian Government is doing to navigate the country through the quagmire.

Looking back on the year that has been, this episode looks at the key trade policy developments in 2025 – a year dominated by radical shifts in US trade policy.

Peter and Pru review some US trade data points to try and identify the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on trade and the extent to which what was predicted came to pass. They then turn to China’s response – the impact of US tariffs on China’s trade, Chinese leverage and the risks and opportunities the new trade context has created.

 Peter and Pru then delve into how other countries have responded and point to the lack of any joint action from countries seeking to push back against the US.

Australia’s response has focused on balancing our relationship with both the US and China while progressing domestic initiatives to bolster resilience. The discussion wraps up with a look at potential new US trade complaints about a number of Australian domestic policies in 2026.

From everyone at TPD – we wish you all a very Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year full of many more great TPD episodes!

Recorded on 11 December 2025.

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In this instalment of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru host Cherelle Murphy, EY Regional Chief Economist, Oceania, and Luke Branson, EY Partner and Oceania Global Trade Leader. Cherelle and Luke provide some awesome insights into the real-world impacts of the current trade disruption as well as the tools they are using to forecast impacts. The discussion begins with an outline of EY’s recent modelling and report on the impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy. It then traverses the challenges of modelling the multiple factors impacted by the tariffs, how business is managing the impacts and the non-tariff costs of tariff chaos, as well as how the Australian Government could best help Australian business manage tariff-created risk. A fascinating discussion even if we say so ourselves!

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In this instalment of Trade Policy Decoded Pru and Peter dive into the future of EU-Australia relations and how this field is evolving in today’s changing geopolitical landscapes.

Based off of their recent discussions in Bologna, Italy, Trade Policy Decoded brings back insights from forum discussions in mapping possible trajectories for relationships between Australia and the European Union. From this, shared interests and key objectives for both regions are identified and explored within the context of current global trade dynamics.

As a group of countries that value the rule of law and the strengthening of democratic institutions, there is certainly good reason for deeper cooperation and coordination in EU-Australia relations. But what are the methods and avenues that exist for deepening these relationships? And what can the EU and Australia do to overcome existing obstacles preventing future cooperation? These questions and more are explored throughout this episode.

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In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru talk to Australia’s Ambassador to the WTO, James Baxter, on a range of issues facing the organisation and WTO member responses to President Trump’s trade policies.

They canvas WTO member outreach via the Public Forum and key themes discussed at this year’s Forum, critical challenges facing the WTO, the WTO reform agenda, scope for securing new outcomes at the 14th Ministerial Conference in 2026, and the ongoing and important work Australia’s diplomats undertake in promoting Australia’s trade interests.

These topics and more are explored in this instalment of Trade Policy Decoded.

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Standing in Iraq beneath a banner reading ‘Mission Accomplished’, former President George W. Bush proclaimed that ‘major combat operations in Iraq have ended … the United States and our allies have prevailed’. This was 6-weeks after the U.S. bypassed the UN to unilaterally invade the country. It proved to be a dubious claim.

In this edition of Trade Policy Decoded, Pru and Peter look at what kind of ‘Mission Accomplished’ the Trump Administration’s reciprocal tariffs are trying to achieve, and what ‘victory’ looks like to those on the inside of recent trade policy manoeuvres.

In doing this, Trade Policy Decoded surveys recent US commentary by Peter Navarro, Jamieson Greer, Richard Baldwin, Adam Posen and Michael Froman. While Navarro and Greer depict President Trump’s tariffs as a response to a world perceived to be exploiting America, Baldwin identifies grievance as driving US trade policy. Posen highlights the costs of the US moving away from the rules-based system, while Froman envisions a variable geometry of trade rules and coalitions to replace the WTO – or perhaps more of the same but without the US.

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The PC’s Trade and Assistance Review (TAR) has measured the costs of tariffs, industry policy and other trade measures on the Australian economy for over 50 years.  The TAR’s importance has only increased with the trade chaos caused by President Trump and the revival of industry policy in Australia and elsewhere. In this episode of TPD, Pru and Peter speak to special guest Alex Robson, Deputy Chair of the Australian Productivity Commission, about the role of the PC and the key findings in this year’s TAR.

They traverse the PC’s assessment of the impact of US tariffs, its advice Australia remove nuisance tariffs, the challenges of modelling uncertainty, and how the PC’s economic assessments sit with national security and climate policy objectives. It ends with Alex very firmly keeping his PC hat on and providing his views on the upcoming Australian Government’s Productivity Roundtables.

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In this episode of Trade Policy Decoded, Peter and Pru catch up on the latest developments coming out of the United States with a special focus on the Optimum Tariff Theory.

The theory can certainly paint a rosy picture for the future of the US economy, but does it hold up against current data? And how might international trading partners react to the creation of such a policy?

In answering this question, Peter and Pru decipher some of the key data and indicators which can speak to the performance of the US economy through recent reorientations in trade policy. They also discuss recent developments in the world of diplomacy and trade-negotiations, tracking bilateral talks taking place between the US and economies in Europe and Asia, highlighting the potential outcomes and difficulties which an ‘Optimum tariff Theory’ might encounter.

In wrapping up this episode, Trade Policy Decoded also traces Australia’s position in all of this, and what recent meetings with Beijing and missed meetings with Washington could mean for Australia’s trade strategy and policy moving forward.

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