Trade Splaining

Washington switched off its biggest Russia sanctions law two days before it was due to start, with very little in the way of explanation. According to the New York Times, Trump waived the Graham sanctions on October 16, ahead of an October 18 start date. The law would have allowed tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas. In episode 95, Robert Skidmore and I (no guest this week, just the two of us) try to work out who is actually running the sanctions playbook, and what it means for any company trying to guess which way trade policy is heading.

The Hormuz fuel shock keeps leaking into everything else. Diesel is expensive, Ryanair's Michael O'Leary is predicting the biggest airfare increases in history, and the AI boom is pushing up trade, power demand and possibly a bubble. At the same time, government borrowing costs in the US, France and Japan have hit multi-decade highs, and the IMF is openly worried about a disorderly jump in bond yields. Trade policy, energy, AI and debt all seem to be pulling on the same thread, and nobody is quite sure which way it unravels.

What Went Wrong This Week

This Week in Local News

Plus: why 95 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (americium, element number 95, created in 1944 at the University of Chicago's Metallurgical Laboratory as part of the Manhattan Project and still found in most household smoke detectors; the European Space Agency's search for americium-241 as a substitute for scarce plutonium-238 in deep-space probes; the WTO replacing GATT in 1995; Toy Story, Amazon and eBay; and I-95, with ports including Savannah, Baltimore and a personal favorite, Newark). Also, listener feedback: no, we do not use Auto-Tune.

This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years, whether you need French or German for work, more confidence in everyday life, or preparation for the FIDE exam required for permit renewals or Swiss citizenship. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email [email protected] and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com.

🎧 Listen to episode 95 on your favorite podcast app: [link]. If you like it, please subscribe and follow us.

Globalization is apparently back, according to DHL, a company with absolutely no stake in the matter. Its latest globalization tracker has globalization at a record high in 2025 and goods trade growing in the first half of 2026 at its fastest pace in 15 years (Covid rebound aside). Meanwhile, US-China trade is down to 1.6% of world goods trade, from a peak of 3.5% a decade ago. Trade isn’t disappearing, it’s rerouting. In episode 94, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that means, then sit down with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, to ask what happens when tariffs, sanctions, chip bans and subsidies stop being separate policies and start being one toolkit he calls economic statecraft.

That fits uncomfortably well with Michael’s argument. The WTO-era system, he says, only works if everyone is on the same geopolitical page, and that page is gone. What replaces it is a world where governments need an answer to a deceptively simple question - what is GDP for? - and where China’s neo-mercantilist model leaves everyone else choosing whether to integrate with it or against it. Elsewhere in the episode: how forced-labor tariffs are speeding up a global supply-chain crackdown, and why America’s job machine looks better in the headline numbers than in workers’ lives.

What Went Wrong This Month

Our guest: Michael Every

Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank, where he looks across assets, disciplines and geographies for the bank’s economics and markets division in Singapore. He has more than two decades of experience as an economist and strategist. Before Rabobank, he was director at Silk Roads Associates in Bangkok, senior economist and fixed income strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in London and Sydney, and an economist at Dun & Bradstreet in London. He holds a master’s degree in economics with distinction from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai.

In our conversation, we cover:

Rabobank clients can find Michael’s research on Rabobank Knowledge. Everyone else can find him on LinkedIn and on X at @themichaelevery.

Plus: why 94 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (plutonium, Chapter 94 of the Harmonized System covering furniture and prefabricated buildings, the Section 232 furniture tariffs turning one, and 1994’s trade milestones: NAFTA, the Marrakesh Agreement and the Channel Tunnel), Rob’s grievances about blocked airplane toilets and the difference between Mayday and Pan-Pan, a “Get Off My Lawn” segment on Gen Z, GameStop and millennials, bedbugs grounding a plane in Rome, and Skyguide’s job cuts.

This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email [confirm address with Active Languages] and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com.

🎧 Listen to episode 94 on your favorite podcast app or find us at www.tradesplaining.com.

The headlines say the tariff war is still raging. According to Richard Baldwin, Washington has spent the past year quietly backing away from it, one exemption and carve-out at a time. In episode 93, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that retreat means for a global trading system that increasingly seems to be organising itself around the US rather than through it. Then we sit down with Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Bank Syz, to ask how investors should think about geopolitics, industrial policy and capital flows in what he calls the era of "slowbalization."

Trade policy, energy security and investment strategy are no longer separate conversations. Canada and the EU are building a deeper partnership, Germany is weighing a tougher economic-security approach to China, and an energy squeeze is heading into winter that looks a lot like 2022. Meanwhile, our guest points out that global equities were hitting record highs despite all the scary headlines. The awkward question for anyone with a portfolio, a supply chain or a heating bill is how those pieces fit together.

What Went Wrong This Week

Our guest: Charles-Henry Monchau

Charles-Henry Monchau is Chief Investment Officer and ExCo member at Bank Syz. Before that, he was CIO of Dubai Investments and head of asset allocation for EMEA at Deutsche Bank, with senior roles across Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. He holds an executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in finance from HEC, is a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charterholder, and is a top voice on LinkedIn with more than 280,000 followers.

In our conversation, we cover:

You can find Syz's investment insights on the Syz Group website and LinkedIn page.

Plus: why 93 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (neptunium, the end of the GATT Uruguay Round on 15 December 1993, chapter 93 of the Harmonized System, and CERN putting the World Wide Web software into the public domain), Gen Z's "Get Off My Lawn" segment, hobby-maxing as a recession indicator, AI-generated sloths on Vespas, and the return of the river otter to Geneva.

This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email [email protected] and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com.

🎧 Listen to episode 93 on your favorite podcast app: [link]. If you like it, please subscribe and follow us.

What actually happens when the internet stops working? Not the brief flicker-of-wifi kind, but a real digital pandemic - solar storms, satellite collisions, and heat waves taking out the servers holding your bank account, your health records and your group chats hostage.

That's the world ITU Deputy Secretary-General Tomas Lamanauskas has been mapping in the International Telecommunication Union's new Digital Risk Report, and it turns out digital resilience is now squarely a trade and infrastructure story, not just an IT problem. Ardian and Rob talk to Lamanauskas about why the ITU is borrowing pandemic language to describe outages, the mechanics of Kessler Syndrome (yes, the Gravity/Armageddon scenario), why submarine cables need their own 42-expert international advisory board, and why "analog skills" - like knowing how to function without WhatsApp for an afternoon - are suddenly a policy conversation.

Before the interview, Ardian and Rob run through this month's "What Went Wrong": why the FT thinks Swiss manufacturing faces a harder question than tariffs alone - namely, what "Swiss made" actually means once companies like Bernina start moving production to Thailand while keeping the engineering at home. They also cover Switzerland's newly upgraded free trade agreement with China, which pushes Swiss duty-free access to the Chinese market from roughly 50% to 99.8%, and the US-Canada trade collapse that the Wall Street Journal has dubbed "the stupidest trade war ever" - 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and cars, retaliatory tariffs starting September 8th, and China's opportunistic pitch to Ottawa as the more predictable trading partner.

Plus: listener feedback on sustainable aviation fuel and greenwashing, Silicon Valley's new favorite recession indicator (limited-edition AI-branded Tudor watches), and a bridge in France that gives oversized vehicles a very unwanted haircut.

Listen to episode 92 of Trade Splaining wherever you get your podcasts, and let us know what you think at [email protected].

Everyone weaponized trade policy at once this month, and the targets weren't always the obvious ones. Trump's latest tariff threats landed on the EU in retaliation for European fines on tech firms, which makes this a regulatory fight dressed up as a trade fight - and means every EU competition decision is now a potential tariff-triggering event. Add a threatened 100% tariff on generic drugs, and the low-cost end of the US supply chain starts looking fragile.

Meanwhile the bill from the Iran war is arriving late but arriving. Strategic reserves are thinning, diesel and jet fuel are tight, and the Houthis are now vowing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which puts the other oil export route in play alongside Hormuz. The New York Times Peter S. Goodman takes the diesel crisis all the way down to Bangladeshi smallholder farmers who need it to pump water, which is a useful corrective to the European trucking angle. Heat is doing macro damage too: Europe's grids were built for a different climate, and retrofitting Switzerland alone for cooling carries a price tag in the hundreds of billions of francs.

Then there's China, which is quietly running the export control playbook it spent five years complaining about. Beijing is tightening controls on outbound investment by companies and citizens, Huawei has engineered its way around US export controls with chip stacking and other workarounds, and the emerging assessment is that China came through the trade war in better shape than most of us assumed. Ardian and Rob get into whether export controls actually do anything beyond forcing innovation, whether the "Chinese model is collapsing" story is analysis or politics, and what it means for an export machine if the rest of the world eventually can't afford to buy.

Which leads to Europe. The EU is talking tougher on Chinese overcapacity and subsidies, but China can retaliate faster through rare earths and critical inputs. Brussels keeps signing rules-based agreements - Mercosur, Switzerland, the post-Brexit deal - covering tariffs, services, labour and environmental standards, digital rules and investment protection, while US deals go transactional and bilateral. The awkward part: Europe hasn't actually used any of those agreements against subsidized Chinese manufacturing yet.

Plus: TS correspondent Michelle returns from six months inside the Walmart employees subreddit with a report on drone cages in the parking lot, stolen Zebra scanners, and Walmart's two podcasts. There's a global whey protein shortage, a Geneva perch bumper crop, a man who allegedly stole a Sea-Doo in Canada and livestreamed his illegal border crossing, and an Air Canada pilot who spent 17 years in the cockpit without a licence.

🎧 Listen at www.tradesplaining.com or wherever you get your podcasts

In Episode 90 of Trade Splaining, Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore are back to unpack how geopolitics, energy markets and global shipping disruptions are finding their way into the everyday economy — from oil prices and port congestion to pain au chocolat, ice cream cones and Aperol Spritzes.

We start with the Strait of Hormuz, where fears of an oil price shock ran into a more complicated reality. China’s role as a “swing importer,” existing oil supply gluts, demand destruction, rerouting and refinery adaptation all helped explain why markets did not quite melt down — even as the risks around energy security and logistics remain very real.

Then we follow the supply chain into breakfast and dessert. Why is a pain au chocolat more expensive? Why can an ice cream cone cost $8? The answer is not one input but many — wheat, butter, cocoa, diesel, refrigeration, labour, packaging and energy all moving in uncomfortable directions at once. Globalization, it turns out, is now coming for your snack budget.

This episode also features a conversation with Jan Hoffmann, Global Lead for Maritime Transport and Ports at the World Bank, on the latest Container Port Performance Index. Jan explains what the CPPI actually measures, why port rankings can get political, how rerouting through the Red Sea, Hormuz and beyond affects port performance, and why the global shipping map is changing in ways that are more about friend-shoring than near-shoring.

We also get into MSC vs Maersk, port ownership, shipping line-linked terminal operators, the geopolitics of port concessions, and — naturally — Jan’s ongoing haircut index and his Washington, DC kebab recommendation.

Plus: Gen Z’s anti-AI nostalgia, the World Cup heat dome, Bosnia’s unofficial theme song, Geneva’s Aperol Spritz problem, and why 320 kilos of meth is probably over the “personal use” threshold.

Listen now for a trade, shipping and geopolitics episode that connects the Strait of Hormuz, China’s energy leverage, port performance, global inflation and your next overpriced ice cream cone.

Trade has a funny way of showing up in your life. Sometimes it is tariffs, oil prices and semiconductor supply chains. Other times, it is your package sitting at the border while someone tries to decide whether “gift” and “zero value” is a legally persuasive customs strategy.

In this episode of Trade Splaining, Rob and Ardian look at why global trade is still proving surprisingly resilient - even as geopolitics, shipping disruptions and rising trade costs keep trying to ruin the party. Goods trade grew strongly in early 2026, helped in part by US demand for AI-related products like servers, semiconductors and data center equipment. But that momentum is running straight into familiar risks: the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, shipping uncertainty and the growing reality that trade may still find a way, but it might cost more and arrive later.

The episode also looks at Europe’s attempt to become a more serious geopolitical actor in supply chains, with the EU preparing stronger emergency powers over semiconductor production and critical chip orders. Rob and Ardian also revisit the eternal zombie file of Brexit, asking whether “Bre-entry” - Britain eventually rejoining or moving closer to the EU - is still political fantasy, strategic inevitability, or simply the trade policy sequel nobody asked for but everyone keeps watching.

The main interview features Carlos Grau Tanner, Director General of the Global Express Association, the Geneva-based association representing DHL, FedEx and UPS on global policy issues including trade, customs, aviation, air transport, security and postal regulation.

Carlos explains how express delivery works behind the scenes, why customs rules matter more than most people realize, and how the explosion in low-value e-commerce parcels is putting real pressure on border agencies. As more countries move away from de minimis thresholds, governments may collect more duties and taxes - but they also risk making customs procedures far more complex than they need to be.

The conversation gets into why a $20 parcel should not necessarily be treated like a container full of high-value goods, how simplified customs regimes could reduce friction, and why better data from platforms, payment systems and logistics operators could help customs authorities target risk without slowing everything down.

Carlos also explains why trade fragmentation is changing the global logistics map. As companies rethink where they produce, sell and distribute, express carriers need flexible air traffic rights and modern cargo rules that allow them to adapt to shifting trade lanes. In other words: if trade patterns are changing, the rules governing cargo aircraft need to change with them.

Plus: customs suspicion around gifts, why your grandmother’s sweater might need a declared value, whether kebab can be shipped internationally, Geneva’s kebab data set, Swiss cows facing cross-border restrictions, and the sad passing of Lazare, the local dog who almost made it to the world record books.

Listen now for a conversation on global trade, customs, e-commerce, logistics, supply chains and why the boring stuff at the border is becoming some of the most important stuff in the world economy.

Oil shocks used to feel like something that happened in markets, headlines and awkward economist panels. Not anymore.

In this episode of Trade Splaining, we look at how the latest energy shock is moving from oil markets into the parts of the economy people actually feel - airfares, airline schedules, fuel tanks, EV demand, government energy policy and, potentially, your next holiday. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer just a geopolitics story. It is becoming a consumer story, a transport story and a very expensive reminder that energy security still runs through some very narrow places.

This week, Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), joins the show to explain why aviation is facing what she calls a double energy crisis: an oil crisis and a refining crisis. Airlines do not fly on crude oil - they fly on jet fuel. And when jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines face immediate pressure on costs, routes, pricing and survival.

Marie breaks down why sustainable aviation fuel is not as simple as “just make greener jet fuel,” why refineries are far more interconnected than most people realise, and why the future of flying depends on much bigger questions around energy systems, investment, infrastructure and political timelines. In other words: aviation may be only a small slice of refined fuel output, but when the system starts creaking, everyone notices.

Also in this episode: Trump and Xi apparently make trade nice again - details pending, napkins possibly missing - Europe’s airlines brace for higher costs, EVs get a crisis-driven boost, Swatch and Audemars Piguet release expensive pendant-shaped plastic, Switzerland accidentally gets a king, and Italy battles the real menace of our time: marauding peacocks.

Marie Owens Thomsen is Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), where she is also responsible for environmental and sustainability activities and serves on IATA’s Management Committee. She previously worked at Lombard Odier as Head of Global Trends and Sustainability and has held senior roles across investment banking, private banking and international economics.

Trade Splaining, IATA, Marie Owens Thomsen, aviation, airfares, jet fuel, oil shock, Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, airline industry, global trade, energy security, transport, geopolitics, supply chains, renewable energy, refining crisis, airlines, EV demand, global economy.

Episode 87 - USMCA Uncertainty, Trade Fragmentation & the Future of Supply Chains

Global trade is shifting - and not everyone agrees on where it’s heading.

In this episode, we break down the growing uncertainty around USMCA, the rise of trade fragmentation, and what it means when the system moves away from efficiency toward resilience.

We also sit down with Will Petty, Global Head of Product Development at A.P. Moller - Maersk Trade & Customs Consulting, to understand how companies are actually responding on the ground - from navigating tariffs to rethinking supply chains and compliance.

Key topics include:

With Will Petty (Maersk), we discuss:

Plus:

Episode 86 – Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT)

🎧 Listen: t.ly/K4Jnc

Has the global trading system fundamentally broken — or is it proving more resilient than expected?

In Episode 86 of Trade Splaining, we sit down with Peter Foster, World Trade Editor at the Financial Times, to unpack the real outcomes of WTO Ministerial Conference 14 (MC14) and what they reveal about the future of global trade.

MC14: What actually happened

Is the WTO still relevant?

Rise of regional and plurilateral deals

Trade policy chaos

The big paradox: trade resilience

Even in a more fragmented and politically charged world, global trade continues to function — not because the system is strong, but because the incentives to keep it going are still stronger.

00:00 – Intro & episode 86 (Radon edition)

Twitter/X: @TradeSplaining