PIIE Senior Fellow Chad P. Bown and Soumaya Keynes of The Economist focus this week on the costs of increased uncertainty generated by President Trump’s threat to rip up US trade agreements as well as the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union. Professor Nuno Limão of the University of Maryland joins to discuss his recent research on how trade agreements reduce investment uncertainty and provides insight from Portugal’s 1986 entry to the European Community, China’s 2001 entry to the WTO, and lessons for policymakers today.

Trade Talks Episode 6: Uncertainty and Trade Deals--Not Good

Audio recordings of Peterson Perspectives interviews with Peterson Institute for International Economics research staff, analyzing current economic and political events.

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The Napoleonic Blockade offered an opportunity for economists to see whether temporary protection from imports can help industrial development. Réka Juhász (Columbia University) joins to discuss her research into whether French regions better protected from trade with the British during the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) did better in mechanized cotton spinning – the era’s frontier industry – than more exposed regions.

Trade Talks Episode 121: Can Infant Industry Protection Work? Evidence from Napoleon

Nick Bloom (Stanford University) joins to discuss the increase in trade policy uncertainty under President Trump and implications for investment and economic growth. They describe new ways of measuring policy uncertainty – including the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, as well as surveys – and recent evidence of its impact, including on the US stock market.

Trade Talks Episode 119: Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

Two former USTR negotiators join to explain the details of the new US-China trade agreement. Agriculture negotiator Darci Vetter (Edelman, 3:50) describes China’s new commitments toward US farm products, and foreign investment negotiator Lauren Mandell (WilmerHale, 18:30) explains changes to China’s legal system, protection of intellectual property, as well as the agreement’s dispute settlement provisions. Finally, Simon Rabinovitch (The Economist, 37:15) joins to provide the reaction from China.

Trade Talks Episode 118: Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

New evidence reveals a side effect of President Trump’s import tariffs. The research shows that, through US supply chain linkages, the new US tariffs on imported inputs are directly contributing to the recent slowdown in US exports of outputs. Kyle Handley (University of Michigan) joins to discuss the potential causes and consequences of these results.

Trade Talks Episode 117: Trump's Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

The WTO is failing to meet a 2020 deadline set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals to negotiate limits to fisheries subsidies. To figure out why, we went to Geneva and spoke with Alice Tipping (International Institute for Sustainable Development) and Mukesh Bhatnagar (Centre for WTO Studies). We describe difficulties on getting a deal to restrain subsidies which lead to overcapacity and overfishing, as well as eliminating subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.

Trade Talks Episode 6: Uncertainty and Trade Deals--Not Good

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