Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

The Napoleonic Blockade offered an opportunity for economists to see whether temporary protection from imports can help industrial development. Réka Juhász (Columbia University) joins to discuss her research into whether French regions better protected from trade with the British during the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) did better in mechanized cotton spinning – the era’s frontier industry – than more exposed regions.

Nick Bloom (Stanford University) joins to discuss the increase in trade policy uncertainty under President Trump and implications for investment and economic growth. They describe new ways of measuring policy uncertainty – including the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, as well as surveys – and recent evidence of its impact, including on the US stock market.

Two former USTR negotiators join to explain the details of the new US-China trade agreement. Agriculture negotiator Darci Vetter (Edelman, 3:50) describes China’s new commitments toward US farm products, and foreign investment negotiator Lauren Mandell (WilmerHale, 18:30) explains changes to China’s legal system, protection of intellectual property, as well as the agreement’s dispute settlement provisions. Finally, Simon Rabinovitch (The Economist, 37:15) joins to provide the reaction from China.

New evidence reveals a side effect of President Trump’s import tariffs. The research shows that, through US supply chain linkages, the new US tariffs on imported inputs are directly contributing to the recent slowdown in US exports of outputs. Kyle Handley (University of Michigan) joins to discuss the potential causes and consequences of these results.

The WTO is failing to meet a 2020 deadline set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals to negotiate limits to fisheries subsidies. To figure out why, we went to Geneva and spoke with Alice Tipping (International Institute for Sustainable Development) and Mukesh Bhatnagar (Centre for WTO Studies). We describe difficulties on getting a deal to restrain subsidies which lead to overcapacity and overfishing, as well as eliminating subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.

Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 elections for the US House of Representatives. Emily Blanchard (Tuck School of Business) joins to discuss new research that investigates how Trump’s trade war affected the 2018 election. The evidence suggests the combination of the trade war and attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act may have cost the Republicans as many as 15 House seats.

Trump’s US Trade Representative provides a fact sheet and more detail on the first stage of the deal announced December 13 to address the administration’s trade war with China. The fact sheet previews an eventual 86-page legal agreement that would include additional Chinese commitments on intellectual property rights protection, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, dispute resolution, and expanding trade. Bown and Keynes also discuss what the Trump administration has agreed to do with all of the new tariffs it has imposed on China, as well as what is not in the phase one deal.

USMCA gets one step closer after Congressional Democrats, organized labor, the Trump administration, and Mexico strike a deal. Megan Cassella (Politico, 2:18) explains how the four-way negotiations led to the December 10 announcement of additional tweaks to the new North American trade agreement, including on biologics. Simon Lester (Cato Institute, 14:13) and Kathleen Claussen (University of Miami, 20:00) also join to discuss changes to dispute settlement and the enforcement of rules regarding labor.

Government subsidies are a key battle area in today’s trade disputes between countries, including the US and China. But finding and measuring those subsidies is increasingly hard. Ken Ash uses the aluminum sector to describe the OECD’s new approach to tracking them down. He also previews a new OECD report on subsidies to semiconductors, and the role of government-sponsored equity injections.

Stephen Vaughn, formerly the Trump administration’s USTR General Counsel, joins in a wide-ranging conversation about the Trump administration’s trade policy. They discuss critiques of the pre-Trump approach (3:04), as well as Trump’s approach on China (6:00), the European Union (18:30), the WTO Appellate Body (22:50), and more.