Peterson Perspectives: Interviews on Current Issues

Anand Menon (The UK in a Changing Europe) joins Keynes and Bown to provide an update on political developments, as well as the shifting timeline, for Britain to depart from the European Union with or without a trade agreement. They also discuss shortages, contingency planning, and the expected initial economic impact if no deal were to arrive.

Kadee Russ (University of California Davis) joins Keynes and Bown to discuss her research on why Korea’s trade surplus grew so widely after the Korea-US (KORUS) Free Trade Agreement went into effect in 2012. They explain the role of trade diversion, or US imports from South Korea displacing imports previously coming in from other countries like China and Mexico. They also discuss contributions due to differences in US and South Korean rates of economic growth, and the right way to think about trade deficits.

Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Peterson Institute for International Economics) joins Keynes and Bown to explain the growth of Germany’s trade and current account surplus, and the puzzle behind why it has not gone away. They discuss the role of the Europe Union, the value of the Euro, ways German policymakers could tackle the surplus, as well as worries over the return of economic nationalism.

Sophie Richardson (Human Rights Watch) joins Keynes and Bown in a wide-ranging conversation about human rights in China. They begin with basic human rights before turning to recent Chinese government efforts to surveil, detain and politically re-educate hundreds of thousands of Uighurs – the minority Turkic and Muslim community – in Xinjiang province. They also describe the concerns driving the Hong Kong protests, how countries and the United Nations Human Rights Council could hold the Chinese government accountable, as well as linkages between external efforts to improve human rights and the connection between the Chinese and the rest of the world’s economies.

Keynes and Bown discuss the Trump administration’s announcement to impose new tariffs totaling $300 billion of Chinese imports split across September 1 and December 15, 2019. Each tariff list targets a different set of consumer goods for the first time, and yet their rollout also avoids import surges associated with peak American shopping seasons. They also describe new evidence of heightening concerns of conditions in the US and global economy.

Former United States Trade Representative Michael Froman* joins Keynes and Bown to discuss the Obama administration’s approach toward China and the World Trade Organization. On China, they describe the challenge of relying on allies and US companies when using WTO dispute settlement, the utility of the US-China bilateral investment treaty negotiations, and the links between trade and national security. On the WTO, they discuss the deals that were agreed, the decision to end the Doha Round of negotiations, and the Obama administration’s frustrations with the Appellate Body.

Keynes and Bown are joined by Dukgeun Ahn (Seoul National University) to discuss Japan’s threat to limit South Korean access to inputs needed to make display panels and semiconductors for smartphones. The current dispute traces back to failures to resolve private reparations claims over World War II atrocities. They explain new economic threats to regional supply chains, Japan’s national security justification for its decision, the role of the WTO and a legal decision over the Fukushima nuclear accident, and even implications for the CPTPP.

Ben Hyman (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) joins to discuss the problem of workers hurt by increased competition arising through trade. They explain the US Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program and new evidence on whether it helps workers stay in the labor market, retrain, and keep earning wages by remaining attached to jobs.

Former Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Pangestu joins Keynes and Bown in a wide-ranging conversation about trade policy and negotiations in Asia. They chat about Indonesia’s episodes of trade liberalization, corruption, and the benefits of losing a WTO dispute. They discuss her experience negotiating ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) free trade agreements with both India and China, as well as the birth of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) idea. They also explain how Indonesia is caught between China and the United States in the ongoing trade war, and the negotiations Indonesia now faces with the Trump administration under the Generalized System of Preferences.

Gordon Hanson (University of California San Diego) joins Keynes and Bown to explain the migration and humanitarian crisis at the heart of President Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on imports from Mexico. They discuss the history of undocumented migration arising since the 1960s, as well as how it has been impacted by changes in US and Mexican economic conditions and immigration policies. They also describe how the crisis has been affected by rising violence in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Mexico, as well as the unintended consequences of US and Mexican migration and asylum policies.