Is the threat of more Quantitative easing putting downward pressure on USD? What's holding #silver up at these levels? Where'd the 3% rally in the IPC/BMV index at #MexDer come from? Bitcoin 17k. I have no idea. Lumber keeps rambling higher. SHFE/INE is opening up #copper futures to international traders this week.   #China #shorts

Marco is an independent analyst and trader who learned his trading game working at a few banks in NYC. We get into his background, talk about how he does his research and get his thoughts on the non-farm payrolls number that came out today, Friday, October 2, 2020.  

The interview comes to abrupt end do to technical difficulties but there's good insight here and I hope you enjoy.  

Find Marco on Twitter here: @MarcoMNYC

Find me on Twitter her: @patrickrooney

Today I spoke with Darin Newsom, President of Darin Newsom Analytics Inc. 

Darin has been in the ags game long enough to learn a great deal about what really matters when it comes to commodity futures.  We talked about the value in studying market technical analysis vs. market fundamentals. We covered how to read the market based off futures prices and particularly futures spreads. The information is all in there.   

We looked at the value in Commitment of Traders reports.  

We discussed the impact of fluctuations in the the Dollar and how that impacts commodity prices.  

Darin gave us three instrument to watch in the coming week.  

December 2020 Corn - particularly the Dec/Mar spread 

December Cattle 

December Gold

This is s brief chat about trading futures in China. Earlier today, Chinese  authorities announced there're relaxing requirements from institutional investors to trade securities and futures on China. This is a very, very big deal. China has numerous markets that are extremely interesting and Trading Technologies (TT) already supports a few.   As of now, TT supports the following futures products in China: Sour Crude @ INE Rubber @ INE Fuel Oil @ INE PTA @ ZCE Iron Ore @ DCE

Great chat with my buddy @olivetrader2 as he shares his experience trading volatility in Treasuries, gold, FX and grains.   Olive entered the industry trading rough rice futures and he's glad to have entered markets with considerably more liquidity. He talks about some of the correlations he watches, his delta neutral trading, delta hedging, inflation and the lack of vol in Treasuries. We spoke a bit about how negative rates killed the once vibrant JGB market in Japan and hope that we don't see the same here in the U.S.   We're both looking for inflation to pick and commodity inflation in particular. Keep an eye on grains...we both sense a long-term bottom is in the works.

Supply, supply, supply, where are you? Back on March 2 of this year, I published an article on LinkedIn and voiced my concern for inflation. My concern was that if the world goes through a lengthy shutdown, we will come out of it with rapid inflation.  My fear was, as is, that if manufacturing is throttled and governments throw money at the people, when the economy reopens we will have excess cash cash chasing too few goods.

I mention a handful of examples in the podcast and explain why you can expect some serious pricing problems by the end of this year and certainly into 2021.

Here's a link to the article I published on March 2, 2020 where I lay out my concerns. 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/were-building-stuff-here-everywhere-enough-patrick-rooney

Ben Wolke started his career on the floor of the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) in 2006 and now trades a variety of futures and cryptocurrencies. He shares his experience of getting involved with trading and evolving into the trader that he is today.  

Ben and I spoke about MGEX, its popular wheat product and few attempts at creating markets in some gulf shrimp futures and motion picture futures.   We also spoke of the current markets that keep him busy including gold, silver and bitcoin.  You may find Ben on Twitter at @BenWolke and you’re welcome to ask any questions here.