Market Update – August 21, 2025

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Tuesday brought a wave of strength across the markets — from major indices to crypto and key tech names — all closing strong as traders prepare for NVIDIA’s earnings after the bell on Wednesday. In today’s video update, I walk through the charts, highlight the standouts, and share the levels I’m watching next.

Click to watch and get ready for what’s shaping up to be a big week.

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The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.

Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.

Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.

The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

A comprehensive review of today's market activity, focusing on the impact of Trump's tariff comments and subsequent market recovery.

Market Overview:

* Sharp gap down due to Trump's comments about imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico

* Strong recovery after news of Trump's friendly call with Mexico's President and one-month delay on tariffs

* $SPY closed at 597.77, near the 50-day moving average

* Bitcoin showed significant recovery from 91,178 to over 101,460

* $PLTR reported strong after-hours results, stock jumping from 83 to 97

Notable Technical Levels:

* SPY has potential resistance near $603 (8-day moving average)

* Potential support at $590.49 (today's pivot low)

* Dollar testing 21-day moving average as support

* Bitcoin could see resistance at $108-109k level

Upcoming Events:

* Earnings: $GOOGL, $AMD, $AMGN (Tuesday)

* $QCOM, $ARM, $MSTR (Wednesday)

* $AMZN (Thursday)

* Economic Data: JOLTS (Tuesday), ADP employment (Wednesday), Jobless claims (Thursday), Non-farm payrolls (Friday)

Action Points:

* Monitor $SPY's reaction to the 50-day moving average resistance

* Watch for potential continuation of $DIA leadership

* Keep expectations tempered due to typically weak February performance in post-election years

* Visit these links for more information from Jeffrey Hirsch and Ryan Detrick. Follow them both on X while you’re there.

* https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1886221160209363356

* https://x.com/AlmanacTrader/status/1885391355569905923

* Track Bitcoin's behavior around the 108-109k resistance level

The market continues to show increased volatility and uncertainty as February approaches, with mixed signals from different sectors and asset classes. Traders should remain vigilant, as multiple high-impact earnings reports and economic data releases are scheduled for the week ahead.

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Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.

The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets, focusing on quick gains with less time commitment required from subscribers.

The Inner Circle

The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.

Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.

Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.

The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.trading-adventures.com

Analyzing the stock futures roadmap and a lightning round trip through a list of names from the watch list.

Market Overview

* Stock indices gapped lower but rallied into close, with 3 out of 4 finishing green

* Performance: SPY +0.16%, IWM +0.19%, QQQ -0.32%, DIA +0.87%

* Bitcoin is trading at $94,200, up from $89,000, showing resilience at support levels

Key Events

* PPI data release tomorrow

* CPI data on Wednesday

* Bank earnings on Wednesday

* Inauguration Day next week

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Technical Analysis

* SPY resistance level around 587, with multiple technical factors converging there

* QQQ resistance at 513 (8-day and 50-day moving averages) and 517 (anchored VWAP)

* The dollar showing continued strength, acting as a headwind for stocks

Notable Stock Movements

* Apple showed strength after testing August pivot low VWAP

* Palantir (PLTR) closed at $64.98, showing strength in after-hours trading

* Nike showing potential reversal after 6 days of decline

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

Looking For More?

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EpicTrades Options Newsletter

Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.

The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets, focusing on quick gains with less time commitment required from subscribers.

The Inner Circle

The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.

Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.

Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.

The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

The Markets

The falling Dollar and rising Bonds scenario is working out well. Revisit the Monday Market Update to read more about why it matters.

We’ll dig into the details of why this matters. But first, a special offer and Thanks to all of you - the readers.

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The Charts

Last Friday, US Dollar futures put in a potential topping candle after hitting the bull flag measured move price objective. This week, that topping candle is confirmed as prices move sharply lower. $DXY $DX1!

Meanwhile, $TLT Treasury bonds continue to climb, moving out of the quagmire near $90 and back over the 8-day MA, the 21-day MA, and a pivot area near $93. Next, it will need to deal with the 50 and 200-day MAs near $93.50.

These factors - falling dollar and falling rates/rising bonds - combined with seasonality and the average December market performance in a strong year like this one should provide a significant tailwind for stocks.

Here’s how the stock index charts and Bitcoin are holding up.

SPY

QQQ

IWM

DIA

BTCUSD

Once again, thank you all for making this a fun, successful, and, most of all, useful endeavor. I truly hope you’re enjoying the charts and articles. And I’m grateful for your support.

Let’s finish 2024 with a bang!

Get 33% off an annual subscription when you gift a friend or family member a monthly subscription.🎁

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The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Looking For More?

Elevate Your Trading Adventure Even Further With These Offerings.

EpicTrades Options Newsletter

Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.

The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets, focusing on quick gains with less time commitment required from subscribers.

The Inner Circle

The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.

Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.

Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

The Market

Good afternoon, everyone.

In this early Monday Market Update, we will examine the current state of stock index futures, focusing on key levels and potential support/resistance areas while highlighting the importance of Friday's pivot lows and the need for prices to surpass certain levels for a rally to strengthen.

In short — do we hold the inside days at the close? And if so, do we get upside follow-through tomorrow?

Also, NVDA reports earnings Wednesday evening after the market closes. We’ll be back with a deeper look at the stock chart and earnings expectations in another article tomorrow.

Finally, all charts from the video are posted below.

Correction: In this video segment looking at Amazon, I mistakenly referred to the VWAP as anchored to the post-election day move when it’s actually anchored to the beginning of the month.

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The Charts

Gallery view - click a chart to enlarge and then scroll left to right to view the others.

The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Looking For More?

Elevate Your Trading Adventure Even Further With These Offerings.

EpicTrades Options Newsletter

Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.

The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets, focusing on quick gains with less time commitment required from subscribers.

The Inner Circle

The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.

Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.

Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Consolidation

Prices are consolidating and testing the 8-day moving averages in many cases after the substantial rally — a move we anticipated in Monday’s Market Update article.

As we look at the completion of day four higher, are there signs that this move could slow down?

There were. And it has.

Now, we can examine the first support levels and see what holds.

More in the video.

I am pleased to announce the launch of reader-supported subscriptions to Trading-Adventures.com. For just $15 a month, you can further support this work and enhance your Trading Adventure.

* Go deeper than the indexes to analyze market moves beneath the surface.

* More charts, more analysis, and more education to improve your trading and enhance your success.

Subscribe now to support this Trading Adventure and take a significant step forward on your own. It's all available for less than a cup of coffee each week.

Been here a while and enjoy the freebies? No worries. Free subscribers will continue to receive the Market Update articles twice a week.

And you can help in other ways.

* Share Trading Adventures

* Forward this email to friends, family, coworkers, and fellow traders

Thank you for considering a paid subscription to Trading Adventures. I look forward to supporting you on your trading journey!

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Looking For More?

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EpicTrades Options Newsletter

Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.

The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets, focusing on quick gains with less time commitment required from subscribers.

The Inner Circle

The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.

Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.

Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.

The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe