True Potential Morning Markets

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, and Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, discuss recovering equity markets and returning economic certainty with the UK budget published and US government re-opened. Expectations are for inflation to be a major focus for the UK and US moving in to 2026 as it’s election year in both countries.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, explores the how AI-related technology stocks are influencing equity market volatility. In the US, a softening jobs market is increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December or January, while economic growth remains solid at an estimated 4%. The spotlight turns to the UK on Wednesday as Chancellor Reeves delivers the Autumn Budget, outlining plans to tackle the gap in fiscal headroom.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, and Sam Elliot, Investment Analyst, discuss the recent fall in global equity markets and the contributing factors, providing context on longer term performance . They also cover the US jobs data which saw 120,000 jobs added, doubling market expectations, and presenting a potential challenge to interest rate cut expectations in December.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses the UK governments decision to make a U-turn on income tax increases. UK markets took the news negatively and with the Autumn budget less than two weeks away, the pressure is on Prime Minister Kier Starmer.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, and Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discuss the direction of the UK economy ahead of the UK budget at the end of November. Elsewhere, the US government shutdown has ended and the cost will begin to become apparent next month as US statistics agencies resume publishing data.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses the new developments in the ongoing US government shutdown and how that has affected markets, as well as the remaining challenges ahead before it can end. There will also be updates from the Federal Reserve later this week which is facing difficulties on it’s interest rate trajectory due to the lack of tier one US data.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, and Lexi Herriott, Investment Analyst, discuss the motivations behind the Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates at 4%. The team also cover the strong US corporate profits as well as the health of the jobs market.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses US equities, which have reached another all-time high last week following the trade agreement between the US & China and Q3 earnings reports that have exceeded expectations. This week the focus will shift to the UK and the latest interest rate decision from the Bank of England, with the market consensus for it to remain unchanged at 4%.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, and Sam Elliot, Investment Analyst, focus back on the US and the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%, taking it below 4% for the first time since late 2022.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, discusses the recovery in global equities, US inflation data and the progress in the US-China trade deal. We also hear about the reasoning behind the 5% drop in gold prices seen last week, and performance of the UK gilt market.