True Potential Morning Markets

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, take focus on the UK this week and discuss the surprising inflation data which came in above expectations. This data puts the Bank of England in a difficult position when trying to justify addition interest rate cuts but next months Monetary Policy Committee will provide updated projections. We’ve also had data on UK employment and the somewhat contradictory picture being painted from survey and payroll data.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, discusses the UK’s surprise inflation figure which came in at 3.6%, and how this is inhibiting the Bank of England’s capacity to cut interest rates. Across the Atlantic, US inflation figures came in yesterday at just below 3%, President Trump is stepping up pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to cut interest and Sebastian lays out the key reasons.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses the escalating tariff rhetoric from President Trump as the EU and Mexico now face 30% tariffs if no trade agreement is reached by August 1st. As we look to the week ahead, key economic data such as the US inflation report will be the highlight, with investors keeping a keen eye on any tariff impacts.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, and Sam Elliot, Investment Analyst, discuss the extension of President Trump’s tariff deadline, as well as the letters sent to countries stating new tariff rates should no agreement be reached before August 1st. They also cover the market reaction to this week's tariff developments and the recent economic trajectory of the UK.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, discusses the current state of the UK’s fiscal predicament and the position Chancellor Rachel Reeves finds herself in as she meets resistance from Labour MP’s in her efforts to restore public finances. Regardless of sticky inflation, around 3%, the direction of travel is clear for the Bank of England and interest rate cuts are still likely in the coming months.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses the major legislative victory for President Trump with the passing of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and what that could mean in the short and long term for the US economy. This week however, investor attention will be focused on tariffs, as the postponement of reciprocal tariffs comes to an end and global trading partners decide on whether they can come to a deal with Trump.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, discuss the rise in global equities, the imminent tariff deadline, as well as the US non-farm payroll data which surprised to the upside.

With the first US earnings announcements coming in since the tariffs, we also look at the impact of policy so far.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, discusses the significant drop in the value of the US dollar this year and the challenge to its status as the global reserve currency.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses the strong global equity performance, with US equities reaching a new all-time high after the recent trade agreement with China. Despite geopolitical and tariff tensions easing, the US inflation report came in hotter than expected, and the attention will now turn to the employment data, which will play a key role in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions moving forward.

George Bell and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Managers, discuss positive returns for assets markets, how conflict has impacted oil prices, as well as US trade deals with China, and corporate earnings and inflation.