As we look to the week ahead, Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, discusses China’s senior leadership meeting at a time where economic improvement is required, with shortfalls in retail and most notably property investment. In the Eurozone, we have several data releases this week but no expectations for any policy changes. In the UK, the Bank of England have key considerations on employment, retail activity and a  focus on services inflation - which has remained stickier than many expected. In the US, the key message from the Federal Reserve is a reluctance to reduce policy restraint too soon so as not to unduly weaken economic activity and employment.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Sam Elliott, Investment Analyst cover the US inflation report which came in below expectations. They discuss the market reaction and what this means for US interest rate cuts. Furthermore, they discuss Q2 corporate earnings from the US consumer and banking sector. They finish by discussing the recent data on the UK economy which shows economic activity remains on a stronger footing despite interest rates at elevated levels.

UK growth is exceeding analyst expectations, integral to this has been the service sector supported by wage growth which is outpacing the rate of inflation. These aspects present challenges in themselves and George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at recent comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, in which he states that monetary policy needs to be restrictive to squeeze the persistent components out of the system. Will the Bank of England cut rates in August or hold?

Today, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, covers comments from Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in which he expressed reassurance on the US economy despite the cooling of data we have seen. What was notable and drove equity markets was the expression of concern in keeping interest rates too high for too long and the detrimental impact that could have on economic growth. Do you think market expectations of interest rate cuts will materialise?

Today, Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at US equities which have astonishingly hit all time highs for the 35th time this year. Equities have been supported by corporate earnings expectations, softer inflation data and the ongoing enthusiasm for AI. Looking forward, investors will be paying close attention to the upcoming corporate earnings season for Q2. This week, US companies kick-off reporting with the financial sector in focus, with particularly attention on bank heavyweights JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

As we look to the week ahead, Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, looks at the recent US employment data which highlights a loss of momentum in the economy. Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is scheduled with Senate & House Banking Committees with a focus on the improving inflationary and employment backdrop to keep the prospect of the September rate cut on the table. Moving over to France, the Eurozone’s second largest economy, we see further uncertainty introduced into the markets after the final round of voting.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy and Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, discuss the PMI survey data from Europe, the UK and US and the broad theme across all regions of manufacturing being weaker than services. We then move over to the US where there are signs of the economy starting to cool and how the data points to a normalisation of labour markets. But how have asset markets in the US have reacted to the labour data?

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, breaks down the figures from the Institute for Supply Management who provide a report on the US’ purchasing and supply executives. Despite a lower than expected performance in recent months it is backed by historically strong figures and investors are digesting the softer economic data positively as they believe it increases the chances of an interest rate cut in September. Do you believe this could be a step towards an interest rate cut?

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the latest European inflation figures and while headline inflation continues to fall, core inflation remains sticky and unchanged at 2.9% driven by the divergence between goods and services. Moving over to the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made positive comments about disinflation re-establishing itself after a Q1 bump. However the Fed want further evidence from future reports before looking to reduce interest rates in the US as they wish to avoid starting another inflation cycle.

After a period of exceptional strength in the US economy, new survey data suggests that the US economy may now be slowing from prior elevated levels. Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the recent construction and manufacturing figures which appear to support this cooling trend. In addition, with the imminent release of labour market data how may the path of interest rates evolve?