Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, looks ahead to the European Central Bank meeting this week and significant expectation of the first interest rate cut. This would mark a divergence from post covid monetary policy which has been led by the US Federal Reserve. Can data point from last week throw the decision into contention? 

Portfolio Manager’s George Bell and Matt Henderson on the last day of the month take a retrospective look at May in what was a positive month for both equity and bond markets. Resilience across developed market economies and business profitability paved way for breadth of regional equity market returns. Constructive themes for portfolios which outweighed political headlines. 

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation focuses on corporate earnings upgrades, the strength of the global consumer and the effect this is having on equity markets. As prices rise above inflation the US consumer is now taking their money elsewhere with expectations for companies such as McDonalds, Starbucks and Pepsi to offer promotions to retain market share. 

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, takes the opportunity to look at the key trends in equity markets and the benefits of global multi-asset exposures. With exceptional year to date figures in global equity markets, over the last week, AI enthusiasm has continued to support US equities.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, covers OPEC+ and their attempts to stabilise oil prices, the direction of US interest rates and the members of the European Central Bank’s comments which shed light on a potential cut in a decision taking place next week. Will we see a divergence of policy to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England?

Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Matt Henderson Portfolio Manager cover what has been a busy week for markets and economic data. They discuss the latest UK inflation data, which disappointed but continues to trend towards the Bank of England's target. Despite softer UK retail sales they unpick why consumer confidence is rising. Finally, they discuss Nvidia, the company at the vanguard of Artificial Intelligence, was in focus for investors as they reported their earnings results for the first quarter of the year.

The Nvidia share price increase has added approximately $140 billion in market capital as the company communicates that it can’t keep up with demand. Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, covers the market reaction to the figures but also on the forecasts Nvidia are making for Q2.

Today marks the lowest level of inflation in almost 3 years and the record fall in energy prices are a major factor. George Bell, Portfolio manager, breaks down the key factors that have resulted in the 2.3% reading and the market reaction. Will the strength of the UK service data continue to push back the decision on interest rates?

In an important week for UK data, Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, reviews comments made yesterday by Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor at the Bank of England. Of particular interest were the comments on the interaction of wage growth and consumer prices and how it factors into inflation targets. In addition to this the Deputy Governor appears to have changed position on rate cuts in light of the evolving data even though just earlier this month he voted to keep them unchanged. Will the vote swing in favour in June?

Today, Head of Asset Allocation, Kevin Kidney, talks through the imminent release of UK inflation data that is likely to confirm it is back to Bank of England targets and why it may even fall below it. Will the continuing decline of UK price pressures and inflation coming in at target encourage more consumer spending?