True Potential Morning Markets

Central banks are monitoring price inflation before looking to change monetary policy. Matt Henderson, Portfolio manager, discusses how inflation data could influence the US interest rates and how the UK’s fourth quarter GDP and unemployment report may influence the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision in the coming week.

Our expert Investment Management team review: Jerome Powell’s recent testimony, suggesting that we are not far from seeing interest rate cuts. With commentary on the US economy exceeding market expectations for employment, how could interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve affect your investments?

With 5 months of consecutive increases in the Halifax house price index, the data suggests relative stability in the housing sector. Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, discusses the Halifax UK house price data, falling mortgage rates and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the UK.

With expectations for inflation to decline and growth to climb across major Western economies, market volatility has fallen as a result. Kevin Kidney, Investment Director, talks through how improving market stability and the fall in the correlations between equity and bond prices has enabled multi-asset portfolios to perform well.

China’s annual budget has set an ambitious growth target of 5% amidst the nations economy facing a number of potential headwinds. Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, talks through the key announcements and the market reaction as well as the fiscal dynamics at play in China.

The European Central Bank meeting takes places later this week and Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer discusses the positive comments for inflation and the revised set of economic projections expected. The market will be focusing on the National People’s Conference in China and any social or economic policy that could boost the economy.

Global equities are up 4.3% over February with Japan being the best performing region, Jeff Casson and Matt Henderson discuss the market reaction to headline and core inflation, the rise in personal income and India’s exceptional GDP growth in emerging markets.

The French inflation data has been released and Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, digs into the key components that have brought inflation in France down to its lowest level in over two years.

Prospects for global growth continue to improve, as falling inflation eases pressure on disposable incomes. Investment Director Kevin Kidney looks at the positive economic signals coming from the US as GDP continues to grow above trend as well as an expected pushback to interest rate cuts in the UK and US.

Over the last 30 years, Japan has averaged almost zero inflation, however, since Covid, inflation has been creeping back into their economy. Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at this mornings inflation report and discusses whether the Bank of Japan can finally move away from their unorthodox monetary policy of negative interest rates.