True Potential Morning Markets

Last week ended with the customary release of the US jobs report. The detail in the report was better than expected, with a 199k increase in payrolls for November and the unemployment rate falling to 3.7% in November.

From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, will the average hourly earnings increase of 4.0% year on year influence the interest rate decision this week?

Oil prices drop due to lower demand and higher supply, with the US now producing more oil than they did pre-covid. For every day consumers, this translates to lower petrol prices, and could put downward pressure on headline inflation.

In today’s Morning Markets Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, focuses in on UK sovereign bonds. He dissects why they have shown strong returns for investors in recent weeks and how changing expectations of interest rates in the UK, US and Europe influencing their prices.

Yesterday's job opening data demonstrated a cooling in demand for workers, coupled with evidence of moderating inflation in the US markets are implying interest rates are high enough to bring inflation to the Fed's 2.0% target in 2024. Portfolio Manager, George Bell is here to provide context.

November was a remarkable month for asset class returns within diversified portfolios. The US, Europe, UK, Japan, and most emerging markets participated in this asset price rally.  However, China did not, and Investment Director Kevin Kidney joins us to explain why.

Chief Investment Officer Jeff Casson kicks off this week’s Morning Markets with a look back at the key trends that dictated last week’s performance, focusing on the recent rise in equity and bond markets. He also looks ahead to upcoming economic announcements from the US, Europe and China that will likely shape this week’s movements.

November was a very encouraging month for equity and bond markets. Portfolio Manager George Bell takes us through the key components driving returns. 

Yesterday’s inflation figures from Germany have reinforced the latest trends we have been seeing across Europe, that inflation across the continent is coming down. 12 months ago inflation in the country was at 11.6% as Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at how higher interest rates have played a key role in reducing this figure.

A number of senior officials from the Bank of England and European Central Bank attempt to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts as early as Spring next year. However, the more interesting interventions have come from US policymakers with Governor Bowman and Governor Waller pushing for interest rate rises.

Andrew Bailey was in Newcastle upon Tyne yesterday discussing the economic and monetary policy backdrop for the UK. Our Chief Investment Officer Jeff Casson joins us this morning to digest Bailey's visit, plus the impact Thanksgiving and Black Friday has had on the U.S. markets, and what that could mean for your investments this week.