Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House’s approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill, and reflects on the enduring lessons from Liz Truss’s chaotic spell as UK Prime Minister.

Also on the show:

• Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory dissect the UK macro outlook and what's gone wrong with the official data.
• Hamad Hussain from our Commodities team explains why structural forces are setting gold up for new record highs later this year.

Analysis and events referenced in this podcast

Data: Tariff Impact Model
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/tariff-impact-model

Read: Trump threat of 50% tariffs
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-rapid-response/trump-threat-50-tariffs

Data: Global Trade Stress Monitor
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/global-trade-stress-monitor

Markets Drop-In: Europe’s outperformance vs the state of US exceptionalism
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-europes-outperformance-vs-state-us-exceptionalism

Read: Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg up
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/gold-prices-take-breather-next-leg

Commodities Drop-In: OPEC+ talks, gold’s pullback, metals and tariffs and more
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-opec-talks-golds-pullback-metals-and-tariffs-and-more