Turtle Talk

Turtle Talk Episode 14: Inside the Loop — Uncertainty in War and the Markets (Part One)

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A special two-part episode. The trend followers are joined by two Marines, Mark "Moose" McGrath and Ben Ford, to walk eight strategic ideas from the old military thinkers and ask one question at each: does the answer hold on both sides of the door, for warfare and for trend following alike?

The thread under all of it: in war, the Marine has to predict, because nothing tells him where the enemy will be. The trend follower never predicts, because the price already gives him the crowd's answer in one live number. Prediction on one side, following on the other.

Part One covers the first four ideas. Part Two arrives next month.

In this episode
  • ⚔️ Meet the room — Moose McGrath (US Marine, AGLX, No Way Out podcast), Ben Ford (UK Royal Marine turned software builder, ex-AHL and Aspect), with Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, Adam Havryliv and Mike Melissinos.
  • 🔧 Friction — Jerry on the 1992 British election and a 3am scramble to liquidate. Moose on the Marine Corps text Warfighting. Ben on rehearsing what goes wrong before it does.
  • 🌫️ The Fog — "For Want of a Nail," ripples on a pond, the hurricane, and whether price is real consensus or just the last thing the crowd shouted.
  • 🔄 The Loop — Why the OODA loop is not four boxes. Jerry on the cocoa trade, Moose on orientation, Ben on getting his knee down on a motorbike, and the shadow image of trend following.
  • 🥁 Tempo — Mike on the three-year bond short where doing nothing was the whole trade. Why speed means nothing if your direction is wrong.

    • 🐢 Next month, Part Two: the orthodox and the unorthodox, the culminating point, defence in depth, and the strategist's mind. Subscribe so you don't miss it.

    🎙️ Guests
    • Mark "Moose" McGrath / No Way Out podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcast
    • Ben Ford: Commando Development
      • 📚 Books
      • Complex Adaptive Markets → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FKZP8FQJ
      • The Fractals of Finance (foreword by Jerry Parker) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
      • The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (with Adam Havryliv) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FT1NCXP4

        • 📩 Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact

        Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.

        #TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Markets

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        Turtle TalkBy Aussie Turtles