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- Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 15: Inside the Loop — Uncertainty in War and the Markets (Part Two)
The conclusion of our two-part special. The trend followers are joined again by Mark "Moose" McGrath to walk the final four strategic ideas from the old military thinkers, asking the same question at each: does the answer hold on both sides of the door, for warfare and for trend following alike?
Part One was about the condition we all work under. Part Two is about the craft — what you actually do with it. How you win when your chance finally comes, when to let go, how you survive a blow, and the kind of mind that holds it all together.
A smaller room this time. Mike Melissinos and Ben Ford couldn't join us, so Jerry carries the trend following side and Moose heads up the strategists' side on his own.
In this episode- ⚔️ The Orthodox and the Unorthodox — Jerry on 1993, the year one coffee trade carried everything, and the client who said "no commodities" and then asked why he broke even. Moose on Boyd harnessing Sun Tzu, Cheng and Qi, and why surprise is an output, not an input.
- 🏔️ The Culminating Point — Why Clausewitz is "the John Maynard Keynes of warfighting." Jerry on cocoa, and why the only correct answer to "where did you get out?" is "I didn't." Moose on James Hunt versus Niki Lauda, 1976, and what happens when you check out after the win.
- 🛡️ Defence in Depth — Jerry on why the trend follower is thankfully no expert, and why the wide net is offence as much as defence. Moose on variety, rapidity, harmony and initiative — and why Marines aren't really built for defence at all.
- 🧠 The Strategist's Mind — Rich on the trade that broke his predicting habit: a small supplier, a bullish earnings report, and the one contract clause he never read. Moose on figure and ground. Adam on type one and type two errors. Jerry on why no book replaces a mentor.
🐢 A note on what's next: this may be our last episode for a while. We're taking a well-earned break as we consider changing the format and bringing you something rather different. Nothing is decided yet — we'll keep you posted on when, or if, the show returns in a new shape. Fifteen episodes in, thank you for turning up.
🎙️ Guest- Mark "Moose" McGrath / No Way Out podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcast
📚 Books- Complex Adaptive Markets → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FKZP8FQJ
- The Fractals of Finance (foreword by Jerry Parker) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
- The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (with Adam Havryliv) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FT1NCXP4
Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
#TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Uncertainty
1 hr 37 min - Turtle Talk Episode 14: Inside the Loop — Uncertainty in War and the Markets (Part One)
A special two-part episode. The trend followers are joined by two Marines, Mark "Moose" McGrath and Ben Ford, to walk eight strategic ideas from the old military thinkers and ask one question at each: does the answer hold on both sides of the door, for warfare and for trend following alike?
The thread under all of it: in war, the Marine has to predict, because nothing tells him where the enemy will be. The trend follower never predicts, because the price already gives him the crowd's answer in one live number. Prediction on one side, following on the other.
Part One covers the first four ideas. Part Two arrives next month.
In this episode- ⚔️ Meet the room — Moose McGrath (US Marine, AGLX, No Way Out podcast), Ben Ford (UK Royal Marine turned software builder, ex-AHL and Aspect), with Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, Adam Havryliv and Mike Melissinos.
- 🔧 Friction — Jerry on the 1992 British election and a 3am scramble to liquidate. Moose on the Marine Corps text Warfighting. Ben on rehearsing what goes wrong before it does.
- 🌫️ The Fog — "For Want of a Nail," ripples on a pond, the hurricane, and whether price is real consensus or just the last thing the crowd shouted.
- 🔄 The Loop — Why the OODA loop is not four boxes. Jerry on the cocoa trade, Moose on orientation, Ben on getting his knee down on a motorbike, and the shadow image of trend following.
- 🥁 Tempo — Mike on the three-year bond short where doing nothing was the whole trade. Why speed means nothing if your direction is wrong.
🐢 Next month, Part Two: the orthodox and the unorthodox, the culminating point, defence in depth, and the strategist's mind. Subscribe so you don't miss it.
🎙️ Guests- Mark "Moose" McGrath / No Way Out podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcast
- Ben Ford: Commando Development
📚 Books- Complex Adaptive Markets → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FKZP8FQJ
- The Fractals of Finance (foreword by Jerry Parker) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
- The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (with Adam Havryliv) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FT1NCXP4
📩 Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
#TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Markets
1 hr 34 min - Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 13: The Punk Rocker of Trend Following: Mike Melissinos.
Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 13 of Turtle Talk, with a very special guest: Mike Melissinos, founder of Melissinos Trading and one of the genuinely uncompromising classic trend followers you can count on one hand. Same system, same rules since 2011, no watering it down for institutional palatability.
Rich and Adam are fresh back from Malaysia, and April delivered one of the wildest months in memory. A tariff shock, a ceasefire reversal, the Strait closing, and energy and metals whipping in opposite directions. Classic trend following held its nerve and came out on top.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes, April 2026 Review The Classic Trend Index finished April up 6.7%, the highest return against the peer benchmarks and a strong reversal from a slightly negative prior month. Rich digs into the VAMI chart, the widening separation since January 2020, and his "smooth world to rough world" thesis: why amplified convexity rewards those who keep their outliers intact, and why smoothing the equity curve costs you the very trades that define the strategy. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-april-2026/
📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry makes the case for the strong Australian dollar and the underused world of currency crosses, recalling the Mark versus Franc monster trend of the 90s. Mike brings SanDisk, up over 4,000% in a year, a genuine 40-bagger and poster child of the AI storage trade. Adam ties the AI and RAM thematic across Asia, with Taiwan up around 100%, Japan around 50%, and the Samsung-heavy Korean index up roughly 300%.
🎙️ Spotlight: The Mike Melissinos Story The main event. From public accounting and a quiet summer at Bear Stearns in 2007, to discovering trend following as the GFC unraveled, to launching his firm in 2011 into one of the toughest regimes the strategy has ever seen. We go deep on Ed Seykota and the Trading Tribe, the "trend following blues," surviving a 50% plus drawdown, and the hard-won discipline of feeling nothing when the performance finally arrives.
🔍 Coming Soon: Myth Busters and the Cutback Rule We ran out of clock, so Mike is coming back to finish the job. Next time: two Myth Busters, one from Jerry and one from Mike, plus a Shell Mail question on the cutback rule.
🐢 Connect with Mike Melissinos [email protected] https://melissinostrading.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmelissinos/
📚 The Books Complex Adaptive Markets: How Living Systems Shape Finance. The theoretical foundation for why markets adapt. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FKZP8FQJ
The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets. Why trend following works, with a foreword by Jerry Parker. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide: A Field Manual for Hunting Outliers. Co-authored with Adam Havryliv. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FT1NCXP4
All three available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle.
📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
Subscribe so you don't miss Mike's return for Myth Busters and the cutback rule.
Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
1 hr 47 min - Turtle Talk Episode 12 – Just the Turtles: February Review, Energy Breakouts & Myth Busting
Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 12 of Turtle Talk — no guests this month, just the three turtles going deep.
February was another outstanding month for classic trend followers, but March has thrown a few spanners in the works. The guys unpack what's really driving performance, where the next big opportunities might be hiding, and take aim at some of the most persistent myths in the trend following space.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – February 2026 Review All trend following benchmarks delivered strong February results. Classic Trend Index up 5.3% for the month, 14.6% over the last quarter, and 10.5% year to date — continuing to separate from the pack. A discussion on log-scale charting and what the February results really tell us (and don't tell us) about what comes next. 👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com
📈 What's Moved the Needle Jerry spotlights aluminium and bean oil — two markets showing that the opportunity set extends well beyond precious metals. Adam dives into the dramatic divergence between European and US natural gas, and the explosive breakout in Brent crude toward $114. A timely reminder that correlation is fragile when supply chains are under stress.
🐢 Turtle Tidbits – Deep Dives Two meaty topics from Jerry and Adam:
- Jerry on diversification: Why the classic trend follower's goal isn't to smooth volatility — it's to maximise the chance of catching outliers. The case for trading more markets, not fewer, even when they appear correlated.
- Adam on Trend Following vs. Passive Long Equity: Equity valuations are flashing red across every metric. With energy prices exploding and a potential regime shift underway, Adam makes the case for why the next several years could be very painful for passive index investors — and very rewarding for trend followers.
🔍 Myth Busters Jerry tackles two of the biggest misconceptions in the space:
- The diversification myth: For classic trend followers, diversification isn't about lowering volatility — it's about outlier hunting across as many markets as possible.
- The ATR myth: Richard Dennis used ATR to normalise position sizing on entry. The idea of continuously resizing winning positions to smooth the equity curve? That came later — and it costs you the very outliers that define classic trend following.
📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich's book is available now on Amazon in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover. Search Fractals of Finance or Rich Brennan. If you've read it, a short review goes a long way. 👉 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
📩 Send your Shell Mail questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
No episode in April — Rich and Adam are heading to the Malay Archipelago. Back in May, refreshed and ready.
Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
1 hr 37 min - Turtle Talk Podcast - Episode 11: FX Arbitrage, Regime Change, and the Return of Classic Trend
Join Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv for Episode 11 of Turtle Talk with special guest Sanjeev Lakhanpal, co-founder of Horizon3 Investment Management.
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – January 2026 All seven benchmarks rallied in unison. Classic Trend and BTOP50 shared the lead at +5.0%, with dispersion compressing to just 1.1%. Classic Trend surpasses 140% cumulative since January 2020 with a 15.5% CAGR.
👉 Full report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/
📈 What's Moved the Needle Metals dominate as Jerry walks through gold, silver, platinum, palladium and tin — including the brutal end-of-January sell-off. A passionate debate on vol-weighting vs loose pants, why cutting winners to improve Sharpe is a trap, and why one trade doesn't define a system. Adam brings cocoa's bear trend and Bitcoin's breakdown. Mulvaney's extraordinary January (+26%, reportedly 72% intra-month) sparks a discussion on convexity and why you can't replicate his CAGR by leveraging a smooth equity curve.
🎙 Spotlight – Sanjeev Lakhanpal (Horizon3 Investment Management) Sanj shares his journey from physics to AHL's trading desk running billions, working with David Beach — "the greatest trader no one's written a book about" — and the six-year quest to automate Beach's pattern recognition. He explains how Digital Signal Processing extracts diversified signals from price data and then reveals Horizon3's new FX Swap Arbitrage program: a market-neutral strategy exploiting structural swap rate differentials between brokers, averaging over 2% monthly with no losing months. He explains why the opportunity won't be arbitraged away and how it creates a 20-25% return cushion beneath the CTA.
Contact Sanj: [email protected] | www.h3im.com
📬 Shell Mail Two questions from Lee: handling opposing signals under US FIFO rules (net at the portfolio level), and managing multi-currency balances as a global investor — including Adam's advice: go live where your profits are.
📘 The Fractals of Finance Rich shares why he wrote this book — a lifetime searching for certainty, finding trend following, and discovering the geometry beneath markets. With a foreword by Jerry Parker. Available in Kindle, paperback, and hardcover.
👉 Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK
🌐 Resources Report: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-january-2026/ Horizon3: www.h3im.com | [email protected] Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK Questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
1 hr 30 min - Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 010: Stocks, Outliers, and the Geometry of Trend
Join Rich Brennan and Jerry Parker for Episode 10 of Turtle Talk, joined by special guest Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management.
No Adam this month, but a deep, wide-ranging conversation covering classic trend following, equity outliers, diversification myths, and why individual stocks may offer the cleanest expression of trend.
In this episode:📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025 Review
Classic Trend continues to separate from the pack, reaching new high-water marks while much of the CTA universe still lags prior peaks. We unpack dispersion, convexity, and why classic designs thrive when genuine trends emerge.👉 Full report:
https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/📈 What’s Moved the Needle
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and livestock trends take centre stage as multi-sigma moves remind traders where returns are actually made. The discussion cuts through daily noise to focus on long-horizon positioning, unrealised profits, and why parabolic moves signal fragility, not opportunity.🎙 Spotlight Conversation – Cole Wilcox (Longboard Asset Management)
A deep dive into equity trend following at the individual stock level. Cole explains:Why most stock market returns come from a tiny minority of companies
Why indices dilute trend signals
How trend following stocks differs structurally from futures-based CTAs
Why long-duration trends, not activity, drive compounding
The case for absolute momentum over cross-sectional rotation
A rare, first-principles discussion on outliers, capitalism, and why trend following belongs inside equities.
Learn more about Cole’s work:
https://longboardfunds.com/📘 Feature Highlight – The Fractals of Finance
Rich introduces his latest book, The Fractals of Finance, now available on Amazon, with a foreword by Jerry Parker.The book explores why markets are fractal, why averages mislead, and why trend following works because of structure, not prediction.
👉 Available now on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK🌐 Episode Resources
Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – December 2025
https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-december-2025/Longboard Asset Management
https://longboardfunds.com/The Fractals of Finance (Amazon)
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK📩 Send questions for future episodes:
https://www.aussieturtles.com/contactClosing Thought
Markets are producing moves no backtest prepared us for. Outliers are no longer rare. Systems matter. Process matters. And survival still comes before prediction.Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you.
1 hr 6 min - Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Geometry of Trend
Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for a packed end of year episode of Turtle Talk. No guests this time, just the three of us digging into markets, exploring deep structural ideas, and sharing fresh insights from the worlds of trend following, diversification, and outlier hunting. This one is full of charts, data, lived experience, and a few laughs along the way.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – October 2025 Review
Classic Trend Index edges back into positive territory for the year. We walk through the latest numbers, the recovery from the mid year drawdown, and why outlier oriented programs continue to pull away from their higher Sharpe peers.📈 What’s Moved the Needle
Violent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in the Japanese bond market. Jerry, Adam, and Rich break down the charts and discuss why trading through the noise requires loose pants, strong rules, and zero emotion.🐢 Extended Turtle Tidbits
A four part deep dive featuring:• Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles, including calm world vs rough world dynamics and the geometry of compounding• One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis, and what history reveals about market structure, drawdowns, and fat tails• Diversification for Outlier Hunting, and why classic trend followers play a different game• Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch, and what truly drives long term robustness💬 Shell Mail (Q&A)
Listener questions on stability, fragility, valuation extremes, diversification, and how to think about trend following when markets appear to be defying gravity.🌐 Episode Resources
Classic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.comAussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.comATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.comSend your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contactAs our final episode for 2025, we want to thank every listener, supporter, and fellow trend follower who has joined us this year. From the three of us at Aussie Turtles, we wish you a very happy Christmas and a great New Year. We look forward to seeing you again when Turtle Talk returns in January.
#TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles #SystematicTrading #JerryParker #CTA #MarketStructure
1 hr 39 min - Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 008: Battle of the Trends, Pyramids, and Outlier Hunting
Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for another deep dive into the world of systematic trend following. No guests this month – just the three of us exploring markets, myth-busting, and celebrating the launch of our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025 Review
Trend followers surge back to strength as Classic Trend Index posts another standout month. We unpack what’s driving performance across the CTA landscape.📈 What’s Moved the Needle
Gold, Silver, and Platinum shake up the metals space while U.S. equities continue their relentless climb. Jerry shares how short-side stock trends and broad diversification keep portfolios robust.🔍 MythBusters – Did the Turtles Pyramid?
Jerry sets the record straight on one of the most persistent Turtle myths, explaining why spacing isn’t pyramiding and how disciplined risk sizing separates longevity from luck.💡 Feature Spotlight – The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide
Jerry flips the script and interviews Rich and Adam about their new book, the philosophy behind Outlier Hunting, and why mindset comes before mechanics in systematic trading.💬 Shell Mail (Q&A)
Listener questions on volatility targeting, fragility in trends, and how to think about robustness when markets compress.🌐 Episode Resources:
Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025: https://classictrendindex.com
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (book): https://www.aussieturtles.com
📩 Send your questions for the next episode: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
#TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #Fractals #CTAPerformance #ClassicTrendIndex #VolatilityCompression
1 hr 46 min - 🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast: Episode 007 – Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival
Join Rich, Adam, and Jerry as they dive deep into the structures that shape systematic trend following. No guests this month — just the three of us tackling big themes, fresh charts, and audience questions that get right to the heart of Outlier Hunting.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August review: classic trend bounces back, but what lies beneath the numbers?
📈 What’s Moved the Needle – JGBs, Copper (US & LME), Gold, Silver, and Live Cattle take center stage.🔍 Turtle Tidbits – Five heavyweight topics:Are markets fractal and are outliers inevitable?
Expectancy vs Path Dependence – what really matters for survival?
The Cut Back Rule – Jerry explains why it’s essential.
Loose Pants – Jerry’s metaphor for risk and flexibility.
High-Vol Trend Following – unpacking Seeking Alpha’s case for why it might be the most valuable alternative investment.
💌 Shell Mail (Listener Q&A) – Audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend following, and quantifying fat-tailed events.
🎙️ Plus: Rich defends path dependence, Adam challenges mandate mixing, and Jerry sharpens his myth-busting sword.
📚 Special Announcement:
Our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is being released next week! It’s the flagship collection of philosophy, process, and practice behind the Aussie Turtles® approach. Stay tuned @ https://www.aussieturtles.com/ for launch details.🌐 Episode resources and reports discussed:
Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August 2025: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-august-2025/
Fractals, Diversification and the Myth of Dilution: https://atstradingsolutions.com/fractals-diversification-and-the-myth-of-dilution/
Are Markets Fractal? The Case for Maximum Diversification: https://atstradingsolutions.com/are-markets-fractal-the-case-for-maximum-diversification/
Expectancy vs Survival: Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently: https://atstradingsolutions.com/expectancy-vs-survival-why-the-outlier-hunter-thinks-differently/
Beyond Expectancy: Protecting the Path of the Outlier Hunter: https://atstradingsolutions.com/beyond-expectancy-protecting-the-path-of-the-outlier-hunter/
High-Vol Trend Following – Most Valuable Alternative Investment: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823294-high-vol-trend-following-most-valuable-alternative-investment
📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in:
🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact#TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #Fractals #JerryParker #Expectancy #CTAperformance
1 hr 29 min - Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 006: The NYC Getaway: Outlier Hunting
This month’s Turtle Talk is a little different — Rich and Adam join Jerry Parker at his New York getaway for a face-to-face deep dive into the philosophy and practice of outlier hunting. Recorded on Labor Day, the trio reflect on market adventures, harbor cruises, and the heart of classic trend following.
In this special episode, we skip the usual segments and go straight to the foundations:
🌍 Maximum Diversification – why spreading the net across hundreds of markets is essential for catching rare outliers.
📉 Volatility vs. Lifting Power – compounding drag, step-ups in equity curves, and why chasing smoothness can backfire.
🎯 Closed Trade Equity & Weak Compounding – why conservative sizing preserves robustness and avoids randomness.
🔍 Dynamic Position Sizing Debate – why selling into strength risks type-two errors and dilutes true outlier returns.
🐂 The Cattle Year – feeder cattle, cocoa, and how small markets often deliver oversized contributions.
💬 Classic vs. Modern Trend – Buffett, Munger, and the tension between concentrated conviction and wide diversification.
🎙️ Expect candid debate, laughs, and plenty of lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry unpack what it really means to maximize CAGR through pure outlier hunting
📚 Coming Soon: The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide – philosophy, process, and practice in one volume.
1 hr 1 min
About Turtle Talk
From the publisher's feed
Welcome to “Turtle Talk”, where timeless trend-following meets market outliers. Join our hosts Adam and Rich including the renowned original Turtle Trader Jerry Parker as we explore core principles, current debates, and expert insights to help traders navigate financial markets.
Tune in for in-depth discussions and practical advice on trend following and Outlier Hunting.