Markets are relatively calm in the wake of events in the Middle East. This may seem peculiar, but markets rarely price in extreme tail risks. Iran indicated it considers the matter concluded. US President Biden has urged restraint. Signs from the Israeli war cabinet suggest a response, but there is no idea of scale. The G7 has been as effective as the G7 ever is, talking about sanctions against Iran without agreeing on action.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tensions and ignoring tail risks'

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Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets.  Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas.  Host: Daniel Cassidy

CIO First Take: April CPI data & Market response

Yesterday’s US consumer price data was less weird—no 4% monthly increases in rent in Detroit (as in March). The detail showed for almost every business sector, there is deflation somewhere in the United States. For the benefit of non-economists (like the Chair of the Federal Reserve) this is not remotely consistent with sticky prices.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A dose of normality'

Following a brief Springtime hiatus, we catch-up with Burkhard to hear about his recent travels and the connections that can be drawn from the picturesque landscapes of Europe to the European economic landscape.  Burkhard also shares takeaways from a recent conversation with IMF-Head Kristina Georgieva, where they discuss the ingredients for a successful economy (tune in to find out!).

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 5)

Federal Reserve Chair Powell wants further inflation declines before the Fed cuts rates. US inflation is already at or near target for the prices over which the Fed has control. Last month’s consumer price inflation did surprise to the upside, mainly because of rents in the city of Detroit.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tensions and ignoring tail risks'

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