Happy New Year! As we’re off and running into 2025 we are already faced with a lot of global issues occurring during the transition of power in the U.S. In fact, it seems as though we are finding a global reset has kicked off the new year.

Federal supremacy vs. state's rights (sanctuary cities/states, DEI, tariffs, and more).

A new round of money creation and inflation is around the corner in both the West and China. U.S. unemployment continues its trend upward with recent government inflation measures also moving again upward. Many multi-month trends indicate that we are in a serious recession despite government arguments to the contrary.

The continuing disappearance of the American "Middle Class" in light of continuing high inflation rates, expanding war risks, and increasing divisiveness across our country. We've been in this situation before (and worse) including the country dividing election of 1828 (Andrew Jackson's election), the Panic of 1837, and the Great Depression of the 1930's. Many long term trends are locked in already as in the prior periods mentioned but, hopefully, this time we can avoid a major war and a depression. We have to realize that even in an ultimate recovery the rest of this year and 2025 is "dialed in".

A lot of volatility ahead as new leadership assumes power in the U.S. Pre-election negative trends are pretty much not reversible regardless on new economic policies which will take time to approve and start implementation. Unlike past global economic challenges, all global powerhouses are in downturns (U.S., China, Germany, U.K., Russia, etc.) as the BRICS+ countries continue to challenge the West including Japan and S. Korea. U.S. needs to finance $Trillions of government and real estate related debt, during our period of rising long term interest rates, may precipitate another international finance and/or banking industry crisis.

This week, we’ll talk about the implications of the BRICS+ meeting, increasing long term interest rates, and the continuing vast amount of dollars coming into the U.S. stock and bond markets.

Historically, in war times, money moves out of higher geographical risk areas into U.S. dollar investments. It’s hard to predict the ebb and flow of global investment movements but, historically, when this trend ends it ends abruptly. My question is how these flows will change after the election. In the meantime, and quite independently of dollar investment flows, the global economy is either in recession or stagflation...neither which is good for job prospects nor long term stock valuations.

The foreign ownership trends of money flows into and out of the U.S. long term interest rates can be expected to continue up despite the Fed reducing short term interest rates. Higher inflation is expected in the years ahead which, by itself, keeps long term interest rates growing especially as the multiple war zones continue to impact shipping and insurance costs.

Most of the leading Western countries going into or well into recessions while Russia and China organize BRICS+ against the dollar and economic leadership.

The implications of chronic under-reporting U.S. employment and inflation in the context of increasing long term interest rates and out of control federal spending. Stay tuned for the outcome later this month of the Russia hosted BRICS+ summit including China's plan for settlements of global trade outside of the dollar systems. Prepare for China and Russia export controls on uranium and rare earth materials impacting not only electric power generation but production of telecommunications, transportation, and military equipment.

The rapid progress of BRICS+ to replace the dollar, growing role of gold, a new round of money creation, and, once again, higher inflation expectations.

Keep a close eye of the BRICS+ news releases and the upcoming meeting in Russia in late October. Many liberal policies being reversed/replaced in Europe including a ramp up in immigrant deportations (rising civil unrest), and, overall more out of control government spending. Now is the time to prudently plan for a war time economy or at least one with more supply chain disruptions.

BRICS+ progress to dethrone the U.S. dollar and concurrent set of U.S. economic and political threats to stability.

Is the October BRICS+ meeting introducing a new gold-backed currency? The global political/economic environment is rapidly deteriorating and so are the related issues we are facing. Protecting ourselves for a most volatile Fall with lower risk investments should be a top priority now.

Major government revision of 'number of employed' reported in process for release. Economy weakened quite significantly this summer with threat of Japan 'Carrytrade' still overhanging the U.S. bond and stock markets. Challenge by BRICS+ to the U.S. gaining global momentum with U.S. electioneering a strong negative for U.S. global engagement.