The EU is experiencing cracks in their foundation that could even threaten their existence over the next several years. China moving to super-money creation to avoid a depression while building aggressively their military and taking a direct move against the U.S. It seems the BRICS+ countries in the near term continue to move counter to U.S. positions while the U.S. shores up its own military while continuing to issue record amounts of new and refinanced debt. This year is shaping up as a year of substantial change for pretty much everyone on the globe involved in market defined economies and world trade. Investment risks continue to grow!

U.S. Government propped-up housing market, pricewise, starting its fall off a cliff. Good news coming for future first-time home buyers but not so good for us existing homeowners. Covid emergency bailouts artificially kept prices high and false signaled a healthy economy...now coming to an end. Many trends converging to create a significantly negative financial environment but certain investment categories should benefit.

Serious stresses in the ECB and the EU, recent and revised data show a serious U.S. recession in place, new political leadership to favor a recession earlier than later, increasing interest rates and serious banking issues to emerge, increasing layoffs and contraction of U.S. work force in process, preparations for war, some positive long term forces but many negative short term ones, and increasing bi-polarization of the global economies.

Many threats we warned about last year are coming to a head now! Be prepared!!

This year promises to be the most challenging and risky since the Global Financial Crisis! Europe is becoming more unstable politically at a time when vast amounts of government debts have to be financed/refinanced. The following negative trends are reasserting themselves: return to high inflation in the U.S., growing distance between Western World and BRICS+ countries as well as emerging conflicts between U.S. and European leadership. Like the 1970's gold and many commodities on price uptrends indicating increasing global instability and shortages. In particular, the U.S. is seriously challenged to find new rare earth materials to support the aviation, defense, battery, and IT industries as China controls 90%+ of these materials globally while restricting or disallowing their shipments to the U.S.

U.S. has to refinance historical amounts of debt requiring Federal Reserve reinstating high money creation. Long term interest rates heading higher but home prices staying historically high. For the stock market consider avoiding interest rate and consumer industries regardless of tariffs and think about U.S. raw materials producers and hi-tech equipment manufacturers. Reconsider traditional U.S. energy producers. Stay financially conservative by avoid new debt.

For 2025's economic issues carried forward from 2024!

China moves into a depression economy as real estate losses cost one year of total GNP. The U.S. new leadership transition is itself smoother so far than anticipated but few substantive changes will have traction in 2025/2026, the UK and EU are facing increasing economic/political risks, and, maybe most importantly U.S. inflation is again growing bringing with it higher and higher long term interest rates. Real economic growth and creation of new jobs will be a most serious global issue although the US is relatively better prepared.

Happy New Year! As we’re off and running into 2025 we are already faced with a lot of global issues occurring during the transition of power in the U.S. In fact, it seems as though we are finding a global reset has kicked off the new year.

Federal supremacy vs. state's rights (sanctuary cities/states, DEI, tariffs, and more).

A new round of money creation and inflation is around the corner in both the West and China. U.S. unemployment continues its trend upward with recent government inflation measures also moving again upward. Many multi-month trends indicate that we are in a serious recession despite government arguments to the contrary.

The continuing disappearance of the American "Middle Class" in light of continuing high inflation rates, expanding war risks, and increasing divisiveness across our country. We've been in this situation before (and worse) including the country dividing election of 1828 (Andrew Jackson's election), the Panic of 1837, and the Great Depression of the 1930's. Many long term trends are locked in already as in the prior periods mentioned but, hopefully, this time we can avoid a major war and a depression. We have to realize that even in an ultimate recovery the rest of this year and 2025 is "dialed in".

A lot of volatility ahead as new leadership assumes power in the U.S. Pre-election negative trends are pretty much not reversible regardless on new economic policies which will take time to approve and start implementation. Unlike past global economic challenges, all global powerhouses are in downturns (U.S., China, Germany, U.K., Russia, etc.) as the BRICS+ countries continue to challenge the West including Japan and S. Korea. U.S. needs to finance $Trillions of government and real estate related debt, during our period of rising long term interest rates, may precipitate another international finance and/or banking industry crisis.