This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers. 

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Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Cong Wang

13:51 - Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

24:21 - Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland

27:00 - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison

34:52 - Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley