Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges. 

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:30 - Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko

06:10 - Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira

09:18 - Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto

10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park

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It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:23 - Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore

04:50 - Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski

08:22 - Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle

10:22 - Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park

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We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.

The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week. 

SHOW NOTES:

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci

04:45 - Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov

08:15 - Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen

05:11 - Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira

09:36 - Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov

16:10 - Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

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After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:00 - Lauren Murphy vs Eduarda Moura

05:04 - Chris Curtis vs Max Griffin

07:37 - Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

09:50 - Calvin Kattar vs Steve Garcia

12:15 - Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim

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It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only — let’s break down UFC 317 the right way.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:16 - Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshev

10:53 - Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van

21:29 - Beniel Dariush vs Renato Moicano

29:20 - Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

36:52 - Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make sense.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:04 - Recap

01:46 - This Week: UFC Baku

03:12 - Ismail Naurdiev vs Jun Yong Park

09:03 - Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes

18:10 - Jamaal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’m breaking down UFC Atlanta, headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley, with a strong co-main event featuring Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick. The model found a few surprise underdogs this week—and I’ll walk you through where the value lies and which favorites might be worth fading. As always: sharp analysis, data-backed predictions, and no fluff. Let’s bet smarter for UFC Atlanta.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:00 - Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jamey-Lyn Horth

12:19 - Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos

23:34 - Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick

33:30 - Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers. 

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Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Ariane Lipski da Silva vs Cong Wang

13:51 - Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

24:21 - Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland

27:00 - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison

34:52 - Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.

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Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Kurt Holobough vs Jordan Leavitt

07:52 - Allan Nascimento vs Jafel Filho

13:23 - Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson

20:27 - Matuesz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein

27:38 - Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs Maycee Barber