Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why wheat markets rallied ahead of USDA's report—and why renewed conflict in the Black Sea may be the bigger story for commodity markets.

In this July 10 update, Arlan covers:

• Why wheat prices surged despite a generally favorable U.S. weather outlook

• How Ukraine's attacks in the Sea of Azov are disrupting Russian exports

• Why the Kerch Strait has become a key geopolitical risk

• What renewed Black Sea tensions could mean for global wheat trade

• Why traders are beginning to add risk premium back into wheat markets

• How Russia's fuel infrastructure and exports continue to face pressure

• Why corn and soybean prices remain capped by improving weather forecasts

• What to watch in USDA's latest crop report

• The key market risks heading into next week

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