Episode 2 of Unbiased brings on TXMC Trades — analyst, trader, and creator behind the Alpha Beta Soup YouTube channel — for a wide-ranging conversation on where macro and crypto markets actually stand.

TXMC has been in markets long enough to call his own recession prediction wrong and update his framework accordingly. That intellectual honesty runs through the whole conversation: he's buying Bitcoin at current levels not because he knows where the bottom is, but because the Mayer Multiple and realized price proximity put the risk/reward firmly in his favor. He's not calling a vertical recovery either — he expects a long base to form.

We push on the four-year cycle (he finds it amusing more than predictive), treasury companies (structurally skeptical — every one he's looked at has negative operating income), and Ethereum (the stablecoin market cap crossover is the chart he can't shake).

His final take for new investors: understand Bitcoin properly before touching anything else. Not because altcoins can't move — but because without understanding what makes Bitcoin distinct, everything else looks like a cheaper version of the same thing. It isn't.

Honest takes, no pumping, no agenda. That's the show.

Subscribe wherever you listen.

Links:
TXMC on X: https://x.com/txmctrades
Alpha Beta Soup (YouTube): https://www.youtube.com/@AlphaBetaSoup
Julio Moreno on X: https://x.com/jjcmoreno
Ben Sizelove on X: https://x.com/BenSizelove
CryptoQuant: https://cryptoquant.com
CryptoQuant Research: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/research

In the debut episode of the CryptoQuant Unbiased podcast, host Ben Sizelove brings together Julio Moreno (Head of Research, CryptoQuant) and Jamie Coutts (Chief Crypto Analyst, Real Vision) for a wide-ranging macro and on-chain breakdown of where Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand today.

Topics include why global liquidity is expanding but Bitcoin has still underperformed, how the transmission mechanism has shifted from central banks to the Treasury, and what drove the depth and speed of the Q4 2024 drawdown. Jamie and Julio break down why the M2/Bitcoin correlation broke down, whether the February 2025 low was a genuine capitulation, and what on-chain metrics like MVRV Z-score and SOPR say about current positioning. They also get into ETF and MicroStrategy demand as structural market changes, the four-year cycle, weekly RSI divergences, the altcoin landscape, and practical advice for sizing a crypto portfolio.

Follow the guests: 

Jamie Coutts — x.com/Jamie1Coutts | realvision.com 

Julio Moreno — x.com/jjcmoreno 

Ben Sizelove — x.com/BenSizelove

CryptoQuant: cryptoquant.com 

Research & Reports: cryptoquant.com/research 

CryptoQuant MCP: mcp.cryptoquant.com