Unbiased: Where Crypto Meets Data | By CryptoQuant

Where are we really in this Bitcoin cycle? On this episode of Unbiased, hosts Ben Sizelove and Julio Moreno sit down with CryptoVizArt — on-chain analyst and author of the QFI Labs research newsletter — to break down a regime-based framework for reading Bitcoin's market cycles, and what it says about where price goes from here.

CryptoVizArt walks through why most on-chain and technical analysts rely on static, subjective pattern recognition — and how building a regime-detection model using True Market Mean and short-term holder cost basis solves that problem. He defines Bitcoin's six market regimes (bear market, capitulation, repair, advance, breakout, euphoria) and explains why this cycle's unusually shallow bear market (a 50% drawdown vs. 76–84% in the last three cycles) doesn't mean the recovery timeline is different too.

The conversation digs into the historical data: every past cycle took longer to reclaim its all-time high than it did to fall into the bear market in the first place — and based on that ratio, the current recovery may still have 200+ days to run. CryptoVizArt also unpacks the market cap vs. realized cap relationship (the "ignition, washout, plateau" pattern), uses long-term holder supply quantiles to map out where resistance is likely to bite, and shows how short-term holder MVRV has marked every local bottom this cycle. They close with his best advice for new retail investors trying to cut through conflicting analyst takes.

In this episode:

• Why most market analysis is just subjective pattern recognition — and how to fix that
• CryptoVizArt's six-regime framework: bear market, capitulation, repair, advance, breakout, euphoria
• True Market Mean and short-term holder cost basis as cycle anchors
• Why this cycle's 50% drawdown was shallower than the last three — and why that doesn't mean a shorter recovery
• The historical rule: recovery to all-time high always takes longer than the fall into the bear market
• Market cap vs. realized cap: the ignition, washout and plateau pattern
• Mapping resistance using long-term holder supply quantiles
• Short-term MVRV as a bottom and support indicator
• CryptoVizArt's advice for new retail investors

Guest: CryptoVizArt, on-chain analyst, QFI Labs research Hosts: Ben Sizelove & Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant

CryptoVizArt X: https://x.com/cryptovizart 
QFI Labs (Substack): https://substack.com/@qfilabs
QFI Labs: https://qfilabs.ai/

Referenced Reports:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-219817304
https://substack.com/home/post/p-217747449

CryptoQuant Chart (discussed in this episode) Bitcoin: Trader On-chain Realized Price Bands:
https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/630646ec267b2b05b12f51ca?e=66b14e05ff31777909881300

CryptoQuant Website: https://cryptoquant.com 
X: https://x.com/cryptoquant_com 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/crypto-quant/
Telegram: https://t.me/cryptoquant_official

Hosts Julio Moreno on X: https://x.com/jjcmoreno 
Ben Sizelove on X: https://x.com/BenSizelove

Is the Bitcoin bottom already in, or is there one more leg down? On this episode of Unbiased, hosts Ben Sizelove and Julio Moreno sit down with David Puell — creator of the Puell Multiple and MVRV Ratio, now Research Associate at ARK Invest — to break down the recent short-squeeze rally, whether it fits the pattern of past Bitcoin cycle bottoms, and what on-chain data says about where the market goes from here.

David explains why this cycle's bottom looked atypical — a shallower drawdown and no full reversion to realized price — the on-chain markers that did confirm capitulation (SOPR, supply in loss vs. profit), and why September's historical seasonality could still mean one more correction before the next leg up. The conversation moves into how spot Bitcoin ETFs have reshaped on-chain analysis, why long-term holder supply metrics still hold up despite the new investor base, and Julio's framework for estimating Bitcoin demand — a side of on-chain research most people ignore.

The back half covers Bitcoin's biggest emerging tail risk: quantum computing. David unpacks the first post-quantum Bitcoin transaction, the new "Shrinks" BIP proposal, and Blockstream's move into lattice-based cryptography — plus the unresolved debate over Satoshi's ~1.1–2.6M dormant coins and what happens to them (the "hourglass" vs. Nick Carter's "salvage" solution). They close on macro's role in Bitcoin's price, ARK's long-term Bitcoin valuation framework, and David's advice for new investors trying to make sense of on-chain data.

In this episode:

• Why this Bitcoin bottom didn't follow the historical playbook
• On-chain markers confirming seller capitulation (SOPR, realized price, supply in loss)
• September seasonality and the case for one more correction
• How spot Bitcoin ETFs changed on-chain analysis and long-term holder metrics
• Estimating Bitcoin demand, not just supply
• The first post-quantum Bitcoin transaction and the Shrinks BIP proposal
• Blockstream's lattice-based cryptography research
• Satoshi's dormant coins: the hourglass vs. salvage debate
• Macro's role in Bitcoin's price and ARK's long-term valuation framework
• David's advice for new on-chain investors

Guest: David Puell, Research Analyst, ARK Invest — creator of the Puell Multiple and MVRV Ratio Hosts: Ben Sizelove & Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant

📊 Bitcoin Demand Dashboard (CryptoQuant): https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/66c366531dad4a62a5d42c79

Links: CryptoQuant: https://cryptoquant.com CryptoQuant on X: https://x.com/cryptoquant_com David Puell on X: https://x.com/dpuellARK ARK Invest: https://ark-invest.com

#Bitcoin #OnChainAnalysis #CryptoQuant #ARKInvest #BitcoinCycle #QuantumComputing #BTC

In the third episode of the CryptoQuant Unbiased podcast, host Ben Sizelove and Julio Moreno sit down with Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, for a data-driven breakdown of where Bitcoin stands right now — and why this cycle looks nothing like the last one.

Charles argues Bitcoin is carrying two structural drags that didn't exist in prior bear markets: an unpriced quantum computing threat he estimates at a 30% discount to fair value, and 200+ digital asset treasuries (DATs) building leverage on an unsustainable model. Combined with the AI trade pulling capital out of risk markets, it explains why Bitcoin's "value zone" today isn't the obvious buy that 2022 was.

They get into why the four-year cycle may be coincidence this time rather than a driver, how institutional flows from ETFs and treasuries replaced miners as the real supply and demand signal, and why classic on-chain tops like MVRV and the Mayer Multiple never triggered this cycle. Charles also breaks down MicroStrategy's 12% guaranteed yield and why he sees the DAT model heading for consolidation the way the 1929 investment trusts did — plus the quantum roadmap catalyst that could reprice Bitcoin 20–30% overnight, and his framework for the average investor.

Follow the guests:
 Charles Edwards — x.com/caprioleio | capriole.com
Julio Moreno — x.com/jjcmoreno
Ben Sizelove — x.com/BenSizelove

CryptoQuant: cryptoquant.com
Research & Reports: cryptoquant.com/research

Episode 2 of Unbiased brings on TXMC Trades — analyst, trader, and creator behind the Alpha Beta Soup YouTube channel — for a wide-ranging conversation on where macro and crypto markets actually stand.

TXMC has been in markets long enough to call his own recession prediction wrong and update his framework accordingly. That intellectual honesty runs through the whole conversation: he's buying Bitcoin at current levels not because he knows where the bottom is, but because the Mayer Multiple and realized price proximity put the risk/reward firmly in his favor. He's not calling a vertical recovery either — he expects a long base to form.

We push on the four-year cycle (he finds it amusing more than predictive), treasury companies (structurally skeptical — every one he's looked at has negative operating income), and Ethereum (the stablecoin market cap crossover is the chart he can't shake).

His final take for new investors: understand Bitcoin properly before touching anything else. Not because altcoins can't move — but because without understanding what makes Bitcoin distinct, everything else looks like a cheaper version of the same thing. It isn't.

Honest takes, no pumping, no agenda. That's the show.

Subscribe wherever you listen.

Links:
TXMC on X: https://x.com/txmctrades
Alpha Beta Soup (YouTube): https://www.youtube.com/@AlphaBetaSoup
Julio Moreno on X: https://x.com/jjcmoreno
Ben Sizelove on X: https://x.com/BenSizelove
CryptoQuant: https://cryptoquant.com
CryptoQuant Research: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/research

In the debut episode of the CryptoQuant Unbiased podcast, host Ben Sizelove brings together Julio Moreno (Head of Research, CryptoQuant) and Jamie Coutts (Chief Crypto Analyst, Real Vision) for a wide-ranging macro and on-chain breakdown of where Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand today.

Topics include why global liquidity is expanding but Bitcoin has still underperformed, how the transmission mechanism has shifted from central banks to the Treasury, and what drove the depth and speed of the Q4 2024 drawdown. Jamie and Julio break down why the M2/Bitcoin correlation broke down, whether the February 2025 low was a genuine capitulation, and what on-chain metrics like MVRV Z-score and SOPR say about current positioning. They also get into ETF and MicroStrategy demand as structural market changes, the four-year cycle, weekly RSI divergences, the altcoin landscape, and practical advice for sizing a crypto portfolio.

Follow the guests: 

Jamie Coutts — x.com/Jamie1Coutts | realvision.com 

Julio Moreno — x.com/jjcmoreno 

Ben Sizelove — x.com/BenSizelove

CryptoQuant: cryptoquant.com 

Research & Reports: cryptoquant.com/research 

CryptoQuant MCP: mcp.cryptoquant.com