10 years ago Bill Gross said the U.K. was in severe danger on account of its budget deficits. It didn’t work out like that. Also today I look at my favourite gilt, UKT 8% 2021.

This week we find out more about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook given recent softer jobs data, and the likely timing and size of Biden’s stimulus package. Which will bond markets care about most?

5 reasons why inflation comes back in 2021 from Morgan Stanley. Plus a musical tribute to the new Treasury Secretary.

When Smaug captured the dwarves treasure, he plunged the economy of Middle Earth into depression and deflation. Perhaps leading the rise of the far right (Sauron).

Stimulus, fallen angels, sovereign defaults, and a CDS disaster that will go down in bond market history.

Yields are rising, curves are steepening. A big Biden stimulus is expected. Will we get higher Fed rates and inflation though?

A bumper edition looking at the key issues for bond markets in 2021, and beyond.

Today I look at EMD’s default experience so far this year, and then at the forward projections for default risk. Also I preview Thursday’s ECB meeting. And Weird Left Finance Twitter gets a shout out.

Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President, died this week. He was a key player in France’s economic relationship with the US. He also invented the Giscard Bond - linked to gold.

But a good day for the US economy as the Democrats and Republicans showed that they might be able to work together around fiscal stimulus. USTs sold off heavily. Also today I discuss a new Fed paper on corporate debt overhang.