After Trump’s disastrous Tulsa rally this weekend, it’s time to look at the latest betting odds for November’s election, and also to look at some of the policies that might get enacted in either a Democrat or Republican White House.

U.K. debt to GDP just passed the 100% level, and with yesterday’s slightly disappointing Bank Of England policy announcement, there’s going to be a lot of new gilts for the bond market to absorb.

Huge rally in credit today on the back of the Fed’s corporate bond buying announcement. Also I look at a couple of academic papers on the lockdown inflation experience.

Sports bettors have discovered stocks (or stonks in the vernacular), and defaulting companies might just have found a saviour. For bond holders anyway.

Frank Partnoy wrote an article with that title in The Atlantic, and it’s getting a lot of attention. Partnoy says that CLO defaults are coming and they’ll bring down the US banking sector. Is that plausible?

GDP linked bonds have long been discussed as a good option for governments. Italy is now issuing one, aimed at retail investors initially, but could this catch on?

A huge and unexpected boost to hiring in the US last month saw 2.5 new jobs created, sending the unemployment rate down from nearly 15% to 13%. Credit is rallying hard, and US Treasury bond yields are rising sharply.

It’s all about positive surprises at the moment. The economic data is coming in slightly better than expected and the central banks are ramping up the policy response. As a result, risk assets are flying, but government bonds are underperforming.

#blacklivesmatter. Economic slowdowns hit black families hard. On one estimate the economic impact of a downturn is 1.9 times more severe for a black family than a white one. Has the Fed got a responsibility here?

Something for everyone in today’s bond podcast...