Unexpected Points

Ted Knutson, CEO and founder of StatsBomb, joins me to talk about his journey through being a professional bettor, bookmaker and creating innovative data and insights for professional soccer and American football.

Follow Ted on Twitter: @mixedknuts

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* Weekly Adjusted Scores and Advanced Reviews

* Weekly updated Power Ratings

* Proprietary Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency

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Follow me on Twitter: @KevinCole___

This week Ed Feng of the The Power Rank joins me to talk about the process of ranking teams and what it means for Week 16. We also talk a little soccer in the wake of the World Cup.

You can find Ed on twitter, or his great site for betting info and predictions.

If watching on YouTube is your thing.

Subscribe to my substack for daily written content and twice a week podcasts.

For this week’s solo wrap-up pod, I discuss the significance of Mike Leach, and how his thoughtful and intentional way of understanding the game was analytics without numbers.

Plus, I introduce the first selection in what will hopefully be an ongoing thing: The Unexpected Points Book Club. We’re going to start with The Perfect Pass by S.C. Gwynne. It’s a fantastic story of the Air Raid’s founding and ascendance, with Hal Mumme and Mike Leach prominently featured. Lots of lessons from this book to apply to any endeavor, especially when looking to challenge the establishment order.

I lastly have some Q&A from the livestream and detail this weeks research on Joe Burrow’s declining sack rate and Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE).

Leave comments about “The Perfect Pass” here if you’ve already read the book, or are now motivated to start, and I’ll discuss them in the next episode. I’m planning on reviewing the first half of the book (Chapters 1-10) in next Friday’s pod.

Take care.

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Chase Stuart wrote a daily blog at Football Perspective for a decade, and before that helped craft early analytical measures like ANY/A at Pro Football Reference. Chase brings a longer-term perspective to the NFL and how the league has changed over the past couple decades.

Chase joins Kevin to discuss his history, what the current discourse is missing, and which teams he believes are better or worse than their records. Plus, talk on his beloved Jets.

Follow Chase on twitter.

I’m back on the podcasting streets. You can watch this replay on YouTube to see the video clips of the Mahomes interview, or perhaps my animated talking.

I discuss my takes and research (research in links):

* The injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and what it means for the 49ers.

* Baker’s magical evening, McDaniels blowing it and if McVay can turn him around.

* Jon Robinson’s firing and how billion-dollar NFL franchises aren’t run like stable businesses.

* YouTube Live Watchers Q&A: Patriots playoff chances? Is Justin Field legit? What should the Jets do at QB?

You support the pod and my research by subscribing to the Unexpected Points Substack.

As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/

The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review.

Thanks so much and I'll be back later this week (hopefully).

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far.

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12.

Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets.

Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama.