Unexpected Points

Kevin talk through the Aaron Rodgers drama and why passing up a big contract isn't that important, how to view Darrell Henderson after the Cam Akers injury, why teams should be proactive extending QBs, and why empathy makes us bad fans and decision-makers.

(4:55) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s PFF grades leading up to his trade to the Rams (8:00) Breaking down Stafford’s 2020 Ranking (10th) to 2021 (6th) (10:20) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s lack of production despite having top tier receivers (11:40) Why Lamar Jackson should be ranked higher than Stafford headed into 2021 (13:17) Matt Stafford: Overrated?Lamar Jackson: Underrated? (14:51) Is it possible to be underrated if everyone thinks you are underrated? (18:06) Looking into the media/fans determining who is overrated/underrated/right on point (19:59) Breaking down Fantasy Running backs for your upcoming draft (20:42) Why 2nd/3rd year running backs should be your main focus when drafting for Fantasy

(23:25) Kevin highlights RBs to look out for in 2021: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary (26:45) Regret Aversion: Kevin talks about Kyle Shannahan’s biggest regret as a play caller, looks into analytics of offensive play calling/decision making (40:13) Kevin looks into mitigating regret aversion as a decision maker and the sacrifices that need to be made

The Process (2:30) Browns new front office (4:45) Turning over likelihood of success to luck (8:00) Winning Championships (9:50) Letting players go (11:50) Picking the right players (13:00) Hue Jackson discussion (16:00) Talks about interview with Paul DePodesta (20:00) Browns progress season to season (23:30) Browns letting players go (27:00) NFL ready college QBs (30:00) How trade effects wins (34:00) Unlucky losses (37:00) Bringing in talent (40:00) Dorsey clearing house (44:00) Were the 2017 draft picks mistakes (47:30)What would old front office have down differently (52:00) What the Browns did wrong (55:30)

What has Belichick been up to? (2:10) Patriots fourth down rate (9:00) Patriots trade back habits (13:30) Are the Patriots wasting draft picks (15:00) Feedback loops (28:30) How has Belichick been so good at exploiting the Feedback Loop (31:00 - 35:00) Patriots lack of comp picks (39:30) Could Belichick be on the hot seat if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out (41:30)

Kevin reviews his final QB rankings, looks at rookie QB data to see when they should start, and find that teams are getting smarter on situational aggressiveness.

David Giuliani, the Browns director and strategy and research, joins Kevin to talk about how the league is becoming more focused on data, how to best communicate with coaches and other decision-makers, and how recruiting has changed with so much good analysis in the public sphere.

Kevin quantifies the win-win nature of the Julio Jones trade to the Titans, cancels a RB-truther beat reporter, ranks the NFL quarterbacks according to analytical modeling, and challenges the notion that hard work and effort are fundamentally different from other athletic talents.

Kevin talks about the week's news, ranks the best and worst front office in the NFL, and talks about how we can apply insight from a new book on noise in expert opinions to the NFL.

Kevin breaks down the Julio Jones trade situation from a the perspective of a front office in a two-year cap crunch, tracks year-over-year changes in MVP odds that point to Russell Wilson as a big-time value, and introduces a new "Stick to Sports" segment focusing this week on the biases of hundreds of Jeopardy contestants.

Kevin tries to figure out if Urban Meyer is a donkey, cancels Dan Campbell after the head coach fails Analytics 101, and tells you why Micah Parsons is a value for Defensive Rookie of the Year, despite having the shortest odds.