Unexpected Points

Unexpected Points

By Kevin ColeSportsFootballFantasy Sports
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Unexpected Points episodes

  • WEEK 1 RECAP: BUY, SELL OR HOLD

    Find Josh’s Buy Low model on his substack



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
    1 hr 6 min
  • WEEK 1 NFL QUARTERBACK RANKINGS

    See the Week 1 NFL quarterback rankings based on Bayesian updating and adjusted EPA efficiency.



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
    1 hr 17 min
  • SOLO POD: WATSON RESTRUCTURE & NFL CAP ALCHEMY

    The latest Deshaun Watson restructure gives us an opportunity to talk about the emerging financial alchemy teams are employing, especially with quarterback contracts.

    I talk through how the Watson deal and general restructures allow teams to roster slightly better teams overall, due to the compounding rise of cap cost and shifting burdens into the future.



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
    37 min
  • SHOULD DRAKE MAYE START? CEEDEE LAMB EXTENSION

    Josh Hermsmeyer joins the pod for the weekly livestream to talk:

    * If Drake Maye should start, and generally what we learn from the preseason

    * How the Cowboys played the last few drafts so poorly at WR and lost all leverage with CeeDee Lamb

    * A bet on the kick-return rate for the 2024: Herms takes under 40%, Kevin takes the over

    * Strong analysis from the NFL’s Michael Lopez and Tom Bliss on the minimal benefit of bye weeks during the regular season



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
    1 hr 11 min
  • PRESEASON WEEK 2 ANALYTICAL QB REVIEW

    Kevin digs into the advanced stats, worries and hopes for

    * The Steelers QB “battle” between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields

    * All the top QB picks in 2024

    * Is Caleb Williams playing as well as his social media highlights?

    * Jayden Daniels adjusted to a very different Kliff Kingsbury scheme

    * Drake Maye showing a lot of promise with big throws

    * Bo Nix continuing to lead the most efficiency offense of the preseason



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
    41 min
  • ETR'S MIKE LEONE TALKS JJ MCCARTHY INJURY & 2024 FANTASY PROJECTIONS
    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com

    Projections guru Mike Leone of Establish the Run joins the pod to talk through

    * The JJ McCarthy injury, what it means for his future and the more immediate implications for his teammates

    * We also discuss Mike's process forming seasonal and weekly projections

    * What are the most common mistakes making mental projections

    * How often he uses intuition or his gut to …

    27 min
  • DIGESTING THE PRESEASON: SHOULD ROOKIE QBs START WEEK 1?

    Kevin discusses the (little) meaningful information from Week 1 of the NFL preseason Plus, he explain how to best decide on Week 1 starters with competing veterans of less caliber, or when a top-12 rookie is in the mix.



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
    1 hr 8 min

About Unexpected Points

From the publisher's feed

Unexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a uniquely analytical lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues…