Unfiltered Media

Justin Lebbon talks to Shane Skillen, CEO of Hotspex, an AI specialist working with Fortune 100 brands, about what AI is really changing in branding, media and the creator economy — and what it isn't.

• LLMs as the new "zero moment of truth": answer engines scan everything known about a brand to make personalised recommendations. Hotspex research found 71% of consumers overrode an LLM's recommendation when they had a strong emotional connection to a brand — weaker brands are left "at the mercy" of the model.
• The platform flywheel: Skillen argues Google and Meta benefit from weak brands, citing Meta's move to pull product catalogs onto-platform to capture sales and boost ROAS, and Meta's AI assistant Muse as a shopping gateway.
• AI bias in media planning: 63% of media buyers now use AI to plan media (Futuri study). Unprompted, a test plan pushed ~57% of a $10m QSR budget into Google, Meta and Amazon; adding IPA econometric and MMM instructions dropped that to 20% and lifted TV and traditional to 38%. Gemini recommended just 6% TV while heavily favouring YouTube.
• Why the skew exists: roughly 100x more marketing-effectiveness data exists for digital in training sets than for TV, radio and out-of-home — and closed models can be tuned to favour owner properties.
• Human in the loop: Skillen pushes back on the "no human will touch a media plan" prediction, warning of model bias and "AI psychosis."
• Creators vs TV: Unilever's shift toward creators (from 30,000 to 300,000) raises consistency risks — if creators give different "reasons to believe," LLMs training on that content get confused. Justin counters that creator environments are low-attention and platform-dependent.
• The consistency imperative: brands need "singularity" across touchpoints so AI assistants form a coherent view at the moment of purchase.

• Hotspex research found 71% of consumers overrode an LLM's recommendation when they had a strong emotional brand connection — strong brands matter more, not less, in an agentic shopping world.
• 63% of media buyers now use AI to plan media (Futuri), and left unprompted those tools default heavily to digital — about 57% of a test budget into Google, Meta and Amazon.
• Adding IPA econometric models and MMM data to the prompt shifted the mix to 20% digital and 38% TV/traditional; Gemini allocated just 6% to TV while favouring YouTube.
• The skew exists because training data holds roughly 100x more effectiveness evidence for digital than for TV, radio and out-of-home.
• Skillen argues Google and Meta benefit commercially from weaker brands and will push to go brand-direct via their own AI.
• Creators are growing (~28% globally) but risk brand fragmentation; without consistent 'reasons to believe', AI assistants won't confidently recommend a product.

In her first interview since taking over from a fourteen-year predecessor, Barb CEO Caroline Davey — joined by head of partnerships and comms Luca Vannini — sets out how the JIC intends to stay relevant as linear budgets tighten and viewing fragments across devices.

The conversation is candid about the pressures on joint industry committees, the economics of running panels, and the diplomacy required to bring streamers and Google to the table.

• A faster, team-led Barb: Davey signals a shift from "statesman" leadership to an agile, fast-paced team delivering an ambitious multi-year roadmap.
• Comprehensive measurement first: The priority is consistent reporting of content and ads across any device, on schedule or on demand — with second-level granularity a step in that direction.
• Cost discipline: New developments are being kept within existing budgets; the move to second-level tech is framed as cost-neutral because it replaces another technology.
• Streamer integration: Barb is running proof-of-concepts with streaming services under "joint industry terms," setting a dataset acceptance framework rather than a universal spec.
• The panel isn't going away: Vannini argues that the more device-based data you integrate, the more important the panel becomes for real behaviour and demographics.
• Origin: Davey says the story "isn't over" following 55 Blue's acquisition of part of the service, and both leave the door open to future collaboration — cross-media measurement in the UK is "not dead."
• Google/YouTube: A "fresh," practical approach to Google after last year's cease-and-desist episode; Davey plays "Switzerland" on whether YouTube is TV, prioritising getting it measured (Barb data puts YouTube's viewing share above 15%, over half on the TV set).
• Future of JICs: With less money flowing through joint industry committees (per a Tony Regan graph), both argue survival depends on robust, independent, trusted data and moving at pace.

• Barb's near-term roadmap centres on blending panel and streamer first-party data and aligning linear and on-demand ad measurement across devices.
• The move to second-level (second-by-second) measurement is being handled as cost-neutral by replacing existing technology, as Barb insists it has no 'never-ending budget'.
• Barb is working with streaming services on proof-of-concepts under joint industry terms, using a dataset acceptance framework rather than forcing a universal specification.
• The panel becomes more, not less, important as device data is integrated, providing behaviour and demographic detail first-party data can't.
• Following Kantar's acquisition of part of Origin, Barb says cross-media measurement in the UK is 'not dead' and future collaboration is on the table.
• On Google/YouTube, Barb is taking a fresh, practical approach and stays neutral on whether YouTube is TV, prioritising independent measurement — its data shows YouTube's viewing share above 15%, over half on the TV set.

Two big names just dropped out of the index they'd long called home — and both stories say something uncomfortable about the ecosystems they operate in. Justin Lebbon and Ian Whittaker dig into The Trade Desk's fall out of the S&P 500 and Nike's exit from the S&P 100, and what each reveals about ad tech consolidation and the recurring failures of marketing strategy.

• The DSP squeeze: Ian frames Trade Desk as the classic "third player" in a three-horse race, now being squeezed as Google and Amazon take share with a "why use a middleman?" pitch on scale and price.
• Cuts as a signal: A 15% workforce reduction and the surrounding commentary send a self-fulfilling signal to the market about long-term viability — the one arena where boards can't fully "massage the messaging."
• M&A math: With Trade Desk still holding roughly 29–30% share, Google and Amazon can keep squeezing without paying an acquisition premium — and US regulatory scrutiny complicates any bid in the near term.
• A systemic ad-tech problem: Justin argues Google going direct, AI removing intermediaries, and CTV/broadcasters and agencies questioning fees and opacity all point to structural issues beyond Trade Desk itself.
• Nike's self-inflicted wound: The hosts tie Nike's decline to an aggressive DTC push and a reallocation away from brand toward performance — "fads" the industry pushed and then moved on from, leaving Nike to pick up the pieces.
• Altitude and the doom loop: Brands sit at altitude like an airplane — expensive to reach, efficient to maintain, slow to climb back after a drop. Constant discounting (Nike, Adidas, Lululemon) trains consumers to only buy on sale.
• Making the case to the CFO: Justin's counter-example — building awareness to bring down a rising CPA — as the kind of number that gets the C-suite to invest in brand.
• Coming up: The new CEO of Barb joins for an interview next week. And, as always, none of this is investment advice.

• Trade Desk is being squeezed as the weakest of three big DSP players, with Google and Amazon pitching scale and price to cut out the middleman.
• A 15% headcount cut reads as a 'managed decline' signal that can become self-fulfilling by pushing buyers toward rivals.
• With ~29–30% market share still held by Trade Desk, Google/Amazon can keep taking share without paying an M&A premium; US regulatory scrutiny also complicates a near-term bid.
• Nike's troubles stem heavily from marketing decisions — an aggressive DTC strategy and a shift from brand to performance — that were industry fads at the time.
• Brands work like altitude: costly to build, efficient to maintain, and slow and expensive to rebuild after a drop into a discounting 'doom loop'.
• Rising CPAs can be brought down by investing in awareness/brand — a metric that resonates with CFOs and the C-suite.

Ian Whittaker joins Justin Lebbon to discuss his report "A Risk Too Far", commissioned by Arqiva, which argues the UK's digital terrestrial television switch-off — technically possible in 2034 — should be delayed to at least 2044. The two spar over whether switching TV entirely to IP delivery would erode the medium's premium, and what it means for households that still rely on terrestrial.

• Why the report now: A consultation is underway; Whittaker argues the debate has focused too narrowly on cost, ignoring national resilience (terrestrial as a "sovereign asset") and household access.
• The commercial risk: Once a switch-off is announced and all spend runs over IP, Whittaker predicts boards will treat TV, YouTube and TikTok as "one bucket" of video spend, eroding the AVOD/BVOD premium.
• The numbers: PSB combined ad revenues estimated at ~£3.65bn under a 2044 scenario vs ~£3.1bn if switched off in 2034 — a 16% gap. ITV hit ~12%, Channel 4 potentially ~20%.
• Justin's counter: Addressable, data-driven, second-by-second BARB-measured IP TV could attract audience-based buyers and command higher CPMs — quality still matters to marketers.
• The board argument: With marketing treated as a cost under accounting standards, boards under earnings pressure raid the marketing line and favour the cheapest medium.
• Access divide: ~5.4m primary sets still expected in use in 2034 (per MediaTek), concentrated among older, poorer and rural viewers; gigabit passes ~89% of premises but only ~47% take full fibre. Terrestrial is "egalitarian" — IPTV quality depends on household income and broadband tier.
• Agencies: Their media profit increasingly comes from proprietary businesses and buying margins, giving them an incentive to push product cost down, not support price inflation.
• Politics: New PM Andy Burnham's northern working-class seat may shift the calculus; the abolition of DSIT (a stronger backer of the digital move) may help the case for a later switch-off — but the Treasury will weigh in.

• Whittaker's report 'A Risk Too Far' argues the UK DTT switch-off should be delayed from 2034 to at least 2044.
• He estimates PSB combined ad revenues of ~£3.65bn (2044 scenario) vs ~£3.1bn (2034 switch-off) — a 16% reduction, hitting Channel 4 (~20%) harder than ITV (~12%).
• His core thesis: once all spend runs over IP, boards will lump TV in with YouTube and TikTok, eroding the BVOD premium faster than expected.
• Justin Lebbon counters that addressable, data-driven, BARB-measured IP TV can attract audience-based buyers and justify higher CPMs.
• Access is a key concern: ~5.4m primary sets still in use by 2034, and only ~47% of premises take full fibre — leaving older, poorer and rural viewers exposed.
• The decision sits in a consultation period, shaped by national resilience, Treasury views, and shifting political priorities.

Back from a summer break, Justin Lebbon and Ian Whittaker dig into the tangle of politics, regulation and media/tech law reshaping the industry. They weigh whether legal pressure will dent Meta's ad business, why Disney's lawsuit against the FCC is more about signal than outcome, and what the state AG opposition means for Paramount's pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery.

• Four state AGs sue Meta: The case echoes the Big Tobacco playbook — alleging the company knew of harms and hid the truth. Whittaker argues it's largely a revenue-extraction play with little short-to-medium-term impact on advertising spend.
• Why Meta is exposed: With online advertising essentially its single product, Meta lacks the diversification of other tech platforms, leaving it more vulnerable to investor doubts if fines mount.
• The federal wildcard: US tech giants were named in the administration's national security strategy, complicating any regulatory crackdown.
• Data centres as the real backlash: A growing local voter revolt over power, water and resources could become a major midterm issue.
• Disney v. FCC: The FCC is reviewing eight ABC broadcast licenses earlier than their expected 2028 renewal. Disney calls the action an "existential threat" — an unusually aggressive pushback that matters most as a signal to other broadcasters.
• Paramount/WBD: State AGs (all Democratic) oppose the deal, but a possible split between California's governor and its attorney general could give Paramount leverage. Paramount has asked opponents to post a $1.8bn bond. Whittaker still leans toward the deal going through.
• Coming up: Analysis on Fifty-five Blue's stake in Origin, an interview with new Barb CEO Caroline Baxter, and YouTube's change to how it counts a view.

• The Meta suits mirror Big Tobacco litigation, but Whittaker sees them primarily as revenue extraction with limited short-to-medium-term impact on ad spend.
• Meta is seen as the most structurally vulnerable big tech platform because it effectively relies on a single product: online advertising.
• US tech giants being named in the national security strategy complicates federal willingness to crack down.
• Disney's FCC lawsuit — targeting an early review of eight ABC broadcast licenses due in 2028 — matters more as a signal to other broadcasters than for its own outcome.
• A potential rift between California's governor Gavin Newsom and AG Rob Bonta could be leverage for Paramount; Whittaker still expects the WBD deal to go through.
• Paramount has asked state AGs and unions to post a $1.8bn bond, signalling the Ellisons are ready to fight for the deal.

Justin sits down with James Rooke, president of Comcast Advertising — the group behind FreeWheel, Universal Ads and Comcast's media sales business — to tackle the question dominating TV: can the industry realistically compete with the dominance of the major platforms?

Rooke's core case is that premium video is "performative" across the whole funnel, and that TV can win dollars back if it fixes two things — making inventory easy to buy and easy to prove. The conversation ranges across the "curse of incumbency," the bloated programmatic value chain, and Universal Ads' fresh UK launch with ITV, Sky and Channel 4.

Highlights:

• Why 90% of new media spend flowing to a handful of players is bad for brands, effectiveness and a balanced ecosystem.
• The twofold problem with premium video TV: it's too hard to buy and too hard to prove.
• Why the industry should not compromise on transparency — and why expecting "black box" players to become transparent is a fool's errand.
• Incrementality as the level playing field: when four players share a $10 lift, only $10 of credit exists — and premium video is outperforming on that basis.
• The "curse of incumbency": stitching scaled linear onto growing streaming across different tech stacks and measurement standards, and why AI could be a tailwind rather than a headwind.
• FreeWheel's open-API approach so media companies build differentiation on top of shared "core plumbing" rather than re-solving solved problems — plus the case for collaboration and consolidation.
• Universal Ads: 22+ publishers in the US, a zero-fee-to-marketer model built on FreeWheel, and a formal UK launch (test campaigns done, "the pipes are working") with ITV, Sky and Channel 4.
• Getting root demand to root supply "as the crow flies" — fewer intermediaries, less latency, more working media.

• Rooke frames premium video as inherently performative across all funnel stages — the basis for winning share back from the platforms.
• TV's twin problems: it's too difficult to buy and too difficult to prove, both of which the big media companies can out-execute on a level playing field.
• Incrementality is pitched as the apples-to-apples metric; with a fixed pool of credit, premium video is said to outperform social players.
• The 'curse of incumbency' means stitching scaled linear onto streaming across different infrastructures, tech stacks and measurement standards.
• FreeWheel's strategy is to provide open-API 'core plumbing' so companies focus scarce engineering on differentiation, enabled by collaboration and consolidation.
• Universal Ads has 22+ US publishers and a zero-fee-to-marketer model, and is now live in the UK with ITV, Sky and Channel 4.

In the "politics episode", Justin Lebbon and Ian Whittaker unpack the collision of politics and dealmaking across US and UK media — from the court-halted Paramount/Warner Bros Discovery merger to the AI charm offensive from Silicon Valley and a change of prime minister in Britain.

• Paramount/WBD on pause: A Northern District of California judge granted a temporary restraining order; Paramount agreed not to close until the court rules on the states' claims or 06/01/2027, whichever comes first.
• A political fight: 12 Democrat attorneys general, led by California and New York, plus the Writers' Guild, are lined up against the deal — even as the US administration and European Commission have cleared it.
• Follow the spread: With a $31 bid and WBD trading around $25.60, the market is pricing in a real chance the deal collapses; one commentator put it at 60%. Paramount's own shares are down ~20% in a month.
• The Ellison tech angle: Whittaker argues the deal's most interesting dimension is technological — the Ellisons potentially reshaping the combined content library into something more Netflix-like.
• AI as a vote issue: Why Musk and Zuckerberg are publicly championing AI — jobs fears and data-centre backlash are turning big tech into a political liability ahead of the US midterms.
• UK under Burnham: DSIT abolished and its responsibilities split; a cabinet-level AI minister (Kanishka Devayan) installed; expect more skepticism of Silicon Valley but subtler moves than Starmer's proposed social ban.
• ITV/Sky and Paramount at the CMA: Whittaker expects the ITV/Sky deal to proceed, wary of a "Project Kangaroo mark two", and doubts the UK would move to block Paramount without political cover from elsewhere.

• Paramount has agreed to pause its WBD takeover until courts rule on the states' claims or 06/01/2027; a trial date hasn't been set for this year.
• The opposition is heavily political — 12 Democrat AGs led by California and New York, plus the Writers' Guild — despite US and EU clearance.
• The gap between the $31 bid and WBD's ~$25.60 share price signals the market sees a meaningful chance the deal fails; Paramount stock is down ~20% in a month.
• Whittaker sees the deal's real prize as technological: the Ellisons using their tech background to transform the combined content library.
• Musk and Zuckerberg's pro-AI messaging is a bid to get ahead of AI becoming a genuine political liability over jobs and data centres ahead of the midterms.
• A Burnham UK government is expected to be more skeptical of big tech but subtler than Starmer, with DSIT abolished and a new cabinet-level AI minister; the ITV/Sky deal is still expected to clear the CMA.

A short summer catch-up as the hosts sift through Q2 earnings across the media and tech landscape and ask a sharper question: with AI CapEx climbing quarter after quarter, when do investors start demanding proof of delivery?

• Alphabet's strong numbers, weaker shares: Cloud revenue up over 60%, search up 17%, YouTube ad revenue up 13% — yet the stock fell as CapEx guidance was raised again (to $195–205bn for 2026), pushing quarterly free cash flow negative.
• CapEx now looks like a telco: At roughly 40–42% of annualised revenue, tech-platform spend increasingly resembles a utility, not a software business.
• China as the wildcard: New Chinese AI models are prompting investors to ask who really has the better AI investment strategy.
• Comcast and Peacock: Peacock profitable for the first time since launch, ad revenue up ~70%, subscribers up 17% to 48m — and now accounting for ~33% of NBCU ad revenue (up from ~25%), partly reflecting a ~10% drop in traditional pay-TV subscribers.
• The strategic question for Peacock: Profitability achieved — so what's next? Just another streamer, or a super-aggregator play?
• Agencies: Publicis (~5%) outpacing Havas (~3%) and the ~2% HoldCo average, with growth still concentrated in the US while Europe stays broadly flat.
• Macro backdrop: War and oil back above $100 create uncertainty, but limited impact on Western ad spend so far; China's structural GDP slowdown is the bigger concern.

• Alphabet delivered strong Q2 numbers but shares fell as raised AI CapEx guidance ($195–205bn for 2026) turned quarterly free cash flow negative.
• Tech-platform CapEx at ~40–42% of revenue now resembles a telco or utility rather than a software business, and investors want proof of delivery.
• Comcast's Peacock hit profitability for the first time since launch, with ad revenue up ~70% and now ~33% of NBCU ad revenue.
• Peacock is capturing cord-cutters but not fully recovering lost linear revenue — and its long-term strategic role remains unclear.
• Agency growth stays concentrated in the US; Publicis (~5%) is outperforming Havas (~3%) and the ~2% holding-company average, while Europe is broadly flat.
• War and $100 oil have had limited effect on Western ad spend; China's structural slowdown is the more meaningful worry for advertisers.

A flurry of media M&A gives Justin Lebbon and Ian Whittaker plenty to chew on: the agreed (but not yet regulator-approved) Sky–ITV deal, the strategic Comcast/NBCUniversal split, and the wider European wave of broadcaster consolidation. The pair argue that scale matters — but that collaboration and smarter positioning matter more, using Norway and the out-of-home sector as evidence.

• Sky–ITV: terms agreed, regulators next. The deal covers ITV's distribution arm, not the studios business. Whittaker expects clearance, possibly with conditions such as Sky divesting third-party ad-sales agreements.
• Defining the market is the fight. Sky will argue the combined entity is only ~7% of total UK ad spend; the regulatory debate hinges on whether online players count as competitors.
• Regulators think differently now. With Project Kangaroo cited as a cautionary tale, and broadcasters increasingly framed as national infrastructure, Whittaker suspects deals blocked years ago (e.g. TF1/M6) might fare better today.
• UK ad market concentration. Lebbon notes Amazon, Meta and Google take around 75% of UK media spend — higher than the US or the global ~50% average — underlining the structural pressure driving consolidation.
• Europe is consolidating into duopolies: RTL/ProSiebenSat.1 in Germany, Mediaset/Atresmedia in Spain, plus DPG and RTL/Sky Deutschland moves.
• ITV Studios' future. With Sky sitting inside NBCUniversal post-split, an eventual studios acquisition becomes a "possibility, not a probability." As a listed content asset, how investors rate it will be a bellwether for the whole content space.
• Why Comcast split. Largely share-price driven: markets dislike unwieldy conglomerates and prefer laser-focused entities. Sky's relative importance rises within NBCU, and Europe becomes a bigger focus.
• Diversification and local scale. NBCU leaning on brand assets (e.g. BravoCon) beyond "spots and dots"; TV players buying into out-of-home and radio; Seven in Australia combining sales forces; the "SuperJiks" local tie-ups.
• The Norway lesson. Broadcasters aligned strategically, ditched the victim narrative and sold the positives of TV — collaborating on data, measurement and messaging to take share back from social.
• What's next on the pod: a rebranded site and newsletter, more Cannes interviews (Rita Ferro, Mark Marshall, James Rooke), and deep dives on radio and on the "Wild West" of unmeasured creator marketing.

• The Sky–ITV terms are agreed but not yet cleared; Whittaker expects approval, possibly with conditions around Sky's third-party ad-sales agreements.
• The regulatory battle turns on market definition — Sky will argue the combined business is only ~7% of total UK ad spend once online players are counted.
• Amazon, Meta and Google take roughly 75% of UK media spend, higher than the US or the ~50% global average, driving broadcaster consolidation.
• European TV is coalescing into duopolies (Germany, Spain, Italy, France), with regulators now weighing structural decline and national-interest arguments.
• Comcast's NBCU split is largely share-price driven: markets reward focused entities over sprawling conglomerates, and Sky becomes more central within NBCU.
• Norway's turnaround came from collaborating on data and messaging and selling the positives of TV rather than playing the victim.

Justin Lebbon sits down with Rita Ferro, president of global advertising for the Walt Disney Company, for a candid conversation about the most competitive ad landscape she's seen in nearly three decades at the company.

• Compete on value, not price. Ferro argues Disney doesn't have to chase the platforms diving on price because its inventory is largely sold out, anchored in premium storytelling, live events and a privacy-compliant ID graph.
• The "messy middle." She frames the mid-market — advertisers ranked roughly 101 to 1,000, worth about half the market — as Disney's big growth engine, served by some 1,200 agencies and hungry for self-service and automation tools.
• HoldCo dependence is shrinking. Disney's holding-company business is up 10–12% this year and roughly 25% off its level five years ago, as automation, direct brand deals and mid-market grow.
• Live and fandom drive revenue, not just audiences. From College GameDay to the Super Bowl and Grammys, Ferro details in-content integrations, social extensions and a Santa Monica takeover week around Super Bowl weekend.
• Super Bowl pricing up again. Prices are rising another 20% next year, with demand far outstripping a finite supply of units.
• AI in the ad stack. Ferro sees AI cutting the "hands on keyboard" burden of impression-level trading, powering real-time optimisation, and a forthcoming creative tool for mid-market marketers — while human oversight stays central to IP and storytelling.
• International reality. Europe is 14 different Disney+ markets, not one; new markets need automated tools because sales teams can't be staffed at launch.

• Disney says it competes on value rather than price, and is largely sold out across platforms thanks to premium content, live events and its first-party ID graph.
• The mid-market tier (advertisers ~101–1,000, ~50% of the market) is Disney's key growth engine, requiring self-service tools and new ways to service ~1,200 agencies.
• Holding-company business is declining — however it's 10–12% up this year BUT about 25% below its level five years ago — as automation, direct deals and mid-market rise.
• Live drives revenue as much as audience, via in-content integrations and social/fandom extensions across TV, TikTok and Disney's own platforms.
• Super Bowl ad prices are rising again, with demand far exceeding a finite unit supply; Disney is building incremental inventory across its ecosystem.
• AI is being applied to system automation, real-time campaign optimisation, algorithms and a new creative tool for mid-market advertisers, with humans still verifying content and IP.