Winston Churchill famously described the Soviet Union as "A riddle wrapped in an enigma, inside a mystery.” That seems equally to apply to modern day Mexico.

On the one hand, the country is chronically beset by drug cartels, violence, femicide, corruption, poverty, and political shenanigans. The US State Department says that tourists should absolutely not travel to six of Mexico's 32 states and another seven that are almost as violent and crime ridden. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean says Mexico is the fifth poorest country in the Americas. During the past twelve months, a record 2.3 million people will have been arrested trying to cross the country’s northern border into the United States, including many Mexicans fleeing poverty and violence or simply looking for better lives.

On the other hand, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s president, commands approval ratings of around 60% which are the envy of almost every other democratically elected president. AMLO’s party—really more of a social movement he created—is far and away the dominant force in Mexican politics, well positioned to win the presidency for his successor in 2024. Almost half of all Mexicans say their country is on the right path—by comparison, in the United States, only about a quarter think the same about their country.

And more than two-thirds of Mexicans expect life to be better for them and their children five years from now. Mexicans, not known for being optimists, apparently are optimistic. Why?

Jorge Castañeda is as well positioned as anyone to solve the riddle. Castañeda is a leading Mexican academic and author, as well as a former foreign minister and an expert on foreign policy; indeed, he is one of his country’s best known, most incisive commentators on all things political. He thinks Mexico is in trouble. What do you think?