Real estate in China constitutes a fifth of GDP and is weighed down by a combination of untenable debt and scant demand. It is now clear that the trajectory of growth, over the course of the last two decades in China, can now no longer be sustained. A combination of debt, price deflation and demographic debility has begun to express itself in economic trends.

In the early 1980s, China’s GDP per person was about the same as that of India; now it is ~13,000 USD. However, there are reasons to suggest that it is unlikely to break out of the middle-income trap in a hurry, something that very few countries have managed to achieve. One could therefore argue that the Chinese marvel is over. This podcast provides a perspective on these issues.