US Housing Market: A Mid-2025 Snapshot

The US housing market in June 2025 shows striking regional diversity, with some areas experiencing continued price growth while others cool off after years of heated activity. According to the latest data released this week, national home price growth has slowed to just 2.0% year-over-year as of April 2025, marking a significant moderation from previous years.

In the hottest markets, limited inventory continues driving price increases despite elevated mortgage rates. Miami leads with a remarkable 9.4% year-over-year price growth, followed by Austin at 7.2% and Charlotte at 6.8%. San Diego and Tampa round out the top five appreciating markets with 6.3% and 5.7% gains respectively. These regions maintain seller-friendly conditions, with multiple offers still common on desirable properties.

Conversely, several formerly red-hot markets are experiencing price corrections. Boise has seen the steepest decline at -3.1%, while Phoenix (-2.4%), Salt Lake City (-1.8%), and Las Vegas (-1.2%) also show falling prices. These areas, which saw dramatic pandemic-era growth, are now adjusting as inventory increases and investor activity cools.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun remains optimistic, projecting modest national price gains of 3% for 2025 and emphasizing that the market is "not on the verge of a nuclear crash." Yun anticipates increased sales activity in the second half of this year.

A key development is the growing supply of housing, which is helping stabilize prices and bring them more in line with pre-pandemic trends. This improved balance between supply and demand represents a normalization after years of extreme seller advantage.

The current landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for buyers and sellers, with outcomes heavily dependent on location. As summer 2025 unfolds, market participants must navigate this increasingly regionalized housing environment with careful attention to local conditions.

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US HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 2025

The US housing market continues to navigate challenging conditions as we move into June 2025, according to recent data from industry experts. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun described the current housing market as "very difficult" during the NAR 2025 REALTORS Legislative Meetings held on June 3[1].

Despite present challenges, Yun forecasted positive growth, projecting existing home sales to increase by 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026. New-home sales are expected to rise by 10% this year and 5% in 2026, with median home prices climbing 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026[1].

A key factor influencing market recovery is Federal Reserve policy. The Fed has adjusted its economic outlook, appearing to maintain interest rates for a longer period than previously anticipated. This comes after downgrading GDP growth forecasts from 2.1% to 1.7% and raising inflation projections to 2.7% in March 2025[1].

Mortgage rates remain a critical concern for buyers, with Yun predicting rates will average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 before dropping slightly to 6.1% in 2026[1].

Recent housing supply increases have helped stabilize prices, which are now more aligned with pre-pandemic trends according to market insights released yesterday, June 5[3]. The construction sector shows mixed signals, with single-family home construction expected to grow by 3% in 2025, while multifamily starts may decline by 4% before eventually rebounding[2].

Market analysis from June 4 identifies several emerging trends, including cooling market conditions creating new opportunities for buyers, increasing demand for energy-efficient homes, and growing interest in co-living arrangements[4].

As industry stakeholders respond to these developments, the housing market continues its gradual adjustment toward more sustainable growth patterns, though significant challenges remain for both buyers and sellers in the current economic environment.

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US HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: JUNE 2025

The US housing market is experiencing a notable slowdown as we enter June 2025, with year-over-year price growth decelerating to just 2.0% in April, according to the latest Cotality data released yesterday. This marks a significant cooling compared to previous months, with external pressures continuing to weigh on growth nationwide.

Single-family detached homes are still showing modest growth at 2.46% annually, while single-family attached homes have posted their first annual decline since 2012, falling by 0.08%. This divergence indicates a shifting preference among buyers in the current economic climate.

Regional variations are becoming more pronounced, with Wyoming recently joining the top five states for highest year-over-year home price growth. The Northeast and Midwest continue to see the largest gains, particularly in affordable areas surrounding expensive metropolitan centers. Meanwhile, Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and Washington D.C. are now reporting negative home price growth.

The national median existing home price stands at $403,700, representing a 2.7% increase compared to this time last year. Mortgage rates averaged 6.71% in April, continuing to challenge affordability for many potential buyers.

Looking ahead, construction trends show single-family home building is expected to outpace multifamily development in 2025, with analysts predicting a 3% growth in single-family starts while multifamily starts may decline by 4%. This shift reflects ongoing adjustments to market demands and builder incentives designed to attract buyers.

Fannie Mae forecasts home prices rising 4.1% year over year in 2025, suggesting the current slowdown may be temporary. However, market uncertainty remains high, with experts closely monitoring how economic factors, including potential policy changes under the Trump administration, might affect both housing demand and supply in the coming months.

The spring homebuying season appears to be fading earlier than expected, setting the stage for what could be a challenging summer for both buyers and sellers in the US housing market.

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Over the past 48 hours, the US housing industry has continued to face a period of uneven improvement, with new data confirming both persistent challenges and emerging shifts. Home prices nationwide climbed 1.4 percent year over year to an average of 367,711 dollars, according to Zillow, though this rate of growth is notably slower than in previous years. Zillow’s most recent forecast now anticipates home prices will rise only about 0.9 percent over the next 12 months, marking a clear cooling from the rapid appreciation seen earlier in the decade.

Single-family home construction is showing modest growth. Analysts predict a 3 percent increase in single-family housing starts in 2025, driven by builder incentives that are attracting more buyers as the traditionally active spring season progresses. However, the multifamily segment is lagging, with starts expected to decline by 4 percent this year before rebounding in 2026. Industry observers attribute the multifamily slowdown to lingering affordability issues and tighter financing conditions, but they expect improved interest rates and ongoing shortages of affordable homes to eventually fuel renewed demand for rentals and new supply.

The Mortgage Bankers Association and other major forecasters expect price growth will further slow to around 2 percent through the year. Would-be homeowners remain discouraged by elevated mortgage rates and high prices. Although inventory has increased recently, it is still below historical norms and short of what would be required for a balanced market. This limited supply continues to prop up prices and reduce affordability for many buyers.

Regulatory and political uncertainty is also creating unease. Potential policy shifts under the new presidential administration could impact both demand and supply, especially if changes to immigration or tariffs alter construction labor availability and material costs. Recent reporting notes that fewer immigrants could reduce both the need for multifamily housing and the construction workforce, influencing market dynamics for years to come.

In response, top industry players are accelerating incentives for buyers, exploring modular and prefab construction to cut costs, and investing in technology to streamline operations. Compared to the same period last year, the market is less overheated but remains stubbornly out of reach for many, with price gains slowing but not reversing and affordability a primary concern for households and investors alike.

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In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry continues to show signs of cautious transition but remains fundamentally constrained by affordability and limited inventory. The average home value in the country is now 367,711 dollars, representing a 1.4 percent increase over the past year. However, median home prices as of last month hit 403,700 dollars, up 2.7 percent year over year. Mortgage rates are holding steady at historically high levels, with the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.71 percent. This sustained pressure has left many would-be buyers on the sidelines, and sellers have been reluctant to list properties, contributing to a market that experts describe as largely frozen.

Housing inventory is making a slow comeback. Single-family homes for sale are up about 20 percent year over year, but the total number of listings remains 20 to 30 percent below previous lows. Notably, new homes for sale have surged, reaching their highest levels since 2007, while speculative home inventory is also at a multi-year high. Builders are responding with more aggressive sales incentives and are increasing single-family construction starts even as multifamily starts dip, with a 3 percent expected growth in single-family starts for 2025.

On the regulatory front, shifts under the current presidential administration and ongoing tariff debates are injecting uncertainty into the market, particularly around construction material costs and the availability of labor. Any changes in immigration policy could impact both construction labor supply and multifamily housing demand.

Emerging competitors and proptech innovations are creating efficiencies in digital home buying and streamlining mortgage applications, but significant new product launches or major M and A deals have not dominated headlines this week. Major industry players, including national homebuilders, are leveraging incentives to clear existing inventory and pivoting to meet persistent demand for affordable homes.

Compared to past months, there is a modest improvement in supply and some stabilization in price growth, but the affordability crunch endures. While price appreciation is cooling—expected to average between 2 and 3 percent this year versus 4 to 4.5 percent last year—high rates continue to weigh heavily on buyers. The market remains in a delicate balance, awaiting clearer signals on rates, policy, and consumer sentiment before any broad-based recovery can take hold.

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US Housing Market Update: May 2025

The US housing market continues to show signs of stagnation as we approach mid-2025. According to recent data released this week, the market remains largely frozen with subdued growth expected to continue throughout the year. Home price growth is projected to decelerate to approximately 3% or less in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in affordability and demand.

The spring housing market initially showed promising signs of growth, but these were short-lived according to Cotality's May 2025 insights published on May 6th. Further market improvements this year may prove challenging as mortgage rates remain a significant barrier for potential buyers.

In construction trends, single-family home building is expected to grow by a modest 3% in 2025, while multifamily starts are projected to decline by 4% before eventually rebounding, according to Morningstar's report from May 19th. This mixed construction outlook highlights the complex dynamics at play in different housing sectors.

Supply conditions present a nuanced picture. While existing home inventory remains historically low nationwide despite a 20% year-over-year increase, new home inventory has reached 481,000 units - the highest level since 2007. Speculative homes for sale have hit 385,000, a peak not seen since 2008, with both metrics significantly above their long-term averages.

The rental market is bracing for significant changes with over half a million apartment units expected to be delivered across the country in 2025 - one of the highest figures recorded since 2008. New York and Los Angeles will lead with approximately 35,000 and 19,400 new units respectively, while fourteen US markets are projected to receive more than 10,000 new apartment units each.

This substantial increase in multifamily supply, particularly in Sun Belt cities like Dallas, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, and Orlando, is anticipated to stabilize rents in many areas, potentially providing some relief in the rental market amid ongoing challenges in home buying affordability.

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US HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: MAY 2025

The US housing market continues to face headwinds as we approach mid-2025, with recent data showing mixed signals for both buyers and sellers.

According to Zillow's forecast released just yesterday, home values are projected to fall by 1.4% in 2025, an improvement from their previous prediction of a 1.9% decrease. This decline comes as rising inventory puts downward pressure on home values across the country.

Existing home sales are now expected to reach 4.12 million in 2025, representing a modest 1.4% increase from 2024, though this projection has been revised downward from last month's forecast of 4.2 million.

The rental market shows diverging trends, with single-family rents projected to rise by 3.2% while multifamily rents will see a smaller increase of 2.1%.

J.P. Morgan's analysis indicates the housing market will remain "largely frozen" throughout 2025, with growth expected at a subdued pace of 3% or less. Supply conditions are shifting, with Michael Rehaut, head of U.S. Homebuilding Research at J.P. Morgan, noting that "new homes for sale are at 481K, the highest level since 2007."

For consumers, affordability remains challenging. The median existing home price stands at $403,700, up 2.7% year over year. April's mortgage rates averaged 6.71%, continuing to pressure potential buyers.

Construction trends show single-family home building expected to grow by 3% this year, while multifamily starts may decline by 4%.

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae predicts home prices will rise 4.1% year over year in 2025 before slowing to 2% in 2026, suggesting longer-term stabilization.

The combination of higher housing supply, moderating policy uncertainty, and small improvements in affordability should provide some relief to homebuyers in the coming months, though economic uncertainty continues to make the market's trajectory difficult to predict.

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In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry continues to face significant shifts in both market activity and sentiment. According to Zillow’s latest May 2025 report, existing home sales are now projected at 4.12 million for the year, a modest 1.4 percent increase compared to 2024. However, this figure is a downward revision from last month’s estimate, reflecting ongoing market hesitation as buyers remain cautious amid economic uncertainties. Home values are expected to decline by 1.4 percent in 2025, with earlier forecasts predicting a steeper drop. The main causes are a soft start to spring sales and rising inventory, which has provided buyers with more options and put slight downward pressure on prices[1].

Nationally, supply is increasing, especially in new home construction. The inventory of new homes for sale has reached its highest level since 2007, with speculative homes for sale up 40 percent above long-term averages. Single-family existing homes for sale are up about 20 percent year over year but still sit well below historical lows[4]. The construction sector itself is seeing single-family starts expected to grow 3 percent in 2025, while multifamily starts are projected to decline 4 percent before a later rebound[3].

Mortgage rates have stabilized somewhat, and March saw pending sales activity jump by roughly 12 percent year over year, indicating some resilience as buyers adjust to the higher rate environment. Home price growth has slowed, dipping to 2.5 percent year over year in March, with Fannie Mae now forecasting a 4.1 percent increase for 2025[2][5].

On the rental side, Zillow projects single-family rental prices will rise by 3.2 percent and multifamily by 2.1 percent, mainly because the supply of rental listings has risen yet demand for single-family rentals remains strong[1].

Major housing industry leaders are responding by increasing new home incentives and focusing on affordable designs to capture hesitant buyers. Builders are also partnering with lenders to offer rate buydowns and flexible financing, while investors shift attention to single-family rentals.

Compared to a year ago, the US housing market is more balanced, with supply less constrained but demand still muted by affordability challenges, persistent inflation, and limited wage growth. There have been no major regulatory disruptions this week, but the industry remains watchful for policy changes ahead.

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US Housing Market Update: May 2025

The US housing market continues to face challenges in May 2025, with recent data showing mixed signals for both buyers and sellers. According to Zillow's latest forecast released on May 21, home values are projected to fall by 1.4% this year, which is an improvement from their previous expectation of a 1.9% decrease[1]. This downward pressure on home values is primarily attributed to rising inventory and soft sales volume this spring.

Existing home sales are now projected to reach 4.12 million in 2025, marking a modest 1.4% increase from 2024[1]. This figure has been revised downward from last month's forecast of 4.2 million. While buyers now have more options and time to make decisions, they appear hesitant due to lingering economic uncertainty.

In the rental market, Zillow projects single-family rents will rise by 3.2% in 2025, while multifamily rents will increase by 2.1%[1]. Despite lower rent increases expected this year, strong demand for single-family rentals is likely to keep rent growth relatively stable.

Construction trends show diverging paths for different housing types. Single-family home construction is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, while multifamily starts may decline by 4%, though a rebound is anticipated by 2026[3]. Homebuilder sales incentives continue to attract buyers to new construction despite the challenging market conditions.

According to J.P. Morgan's analysis from February, the housing market is likely to remain "largely frozen" through 2025, with price growth expected at a subdued pace of 3% or less[4]. Supply conditions vary across the country, with new homes becoming fairly plentiful while existing home inventory, though improving, remains below historical averages.

Recent data from March showed year-over-year price growth dipping to 2.5%, with lower mortgage rates boosting pending sales activity by approximately 12% compared to the same period last year[2]. Experts predict home-price appreciation will slow to an average growth of 2 percent for 2025, compared to 4.5 percent growth in 2024[5].

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US Housing Market Analysis: May 2025 Update

The US housing market continues to evolve with notable shifts in inventory and pricing. As of May 2025, housing inventory has increased significantly, showing nearly 20% growth year-over-year. This marks the highest level of available homes since before the pandemic began, with April 2025 recording a remarkable 30.6% increase in listings compared to the previous year.

The national median home price reached $403,700 in March 2025, representing a 2.7% increase from last year and setting a new record for the month. Industry leaders are forecasting continued price appreciation throughout 2025, with 21 out of 23 major organizations predicting an average increase of 2.7%.

Regional variations are becoming more pronounced, with the South and West experiencing the largest inventory growth at 31.1% and 40.3% respectively. The Midwest and Northeast are also seeing increased inventory, though at more modest levels of 17.7% and 11.3%.

Mortgage rates are currently averaging around 6.86%, slightly decreased from earlier highs but still elevated compared to pre-2022 levels. This continues to impact buyer sentiment, with pending home sales declining by 3.2% despite the surge in available homes.

The rental market is also seeing changes, with the national average rent now approximately $2,005, marking a 3.5% year-over-year increase.

Affordability remains a significant challenge, with a recent survey indicating only 36% of Americans are satisfied with local housing conditions, a notable decline from previous years.

In Texas, the market reflects broader national trends with a projected median home price of around $350,000 by year-end.

The growing inventory may create improved opportunities for first-time homebuyers, potentially giving them more negotiation leverage as the market continues to adjust to these evolving conditions.

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