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By JPK
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The podcast currently has 50 episodes available.
For over five decades, Azim Hashim Premji has been one of the trailblazers of India Inc. Taking over his family business of vegetable oils at the young age of twenty-one after the untimely demise of his father, he built one of India's most successful software companies along with a multi-billion-dollar conglomerate. As of 2019, he was the tenth richest person in India, with an estimated net worth of $7.2 billion. Yet, the one facet of the man which has overshadowed even his business achievements is his altruism. He’s given away most of his wealth!
In this episode, we’re joined by Sundeep Khanna, veteran journalist, and author of the book “Azim Premji: The Man Beyond the Billions”. Sundeep peels the layers off Premji's life while chronicling his professional and charitable work in the context of his many strengths and shortcomings. The episode is sponsored by Gaja Capital as part of the Gaja Capital Business Book Prize 2021.
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Few brands inspire the kind of devotion that an Enfield does. Its distinctive look and feel, the sound of its engine and the image that it creates of its rider have all contributed to putting the brand on the kind of pedestal that others could only dream of. But the story of how Royal Enfield became the brand it did today is filled with ups and downs, from its robust origins in the early 1950s to the rock bottom that was the 1980s to the lifestyle bike it is today trying to make a presence internationally. Enfield has truly come to epitomise successful business turnarounds and a case study in branding.
In today’s episode we’re joined by Amrit Raj, the author of the best selling book “Indian Icon: A Cult Called Royal Enfield” for which he’s been nominated for the prestigious Gaja Capital Business Book prize 2021.
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In 1956 at the Dartmouth workshop, the idea we’ve now come to know of as artificial intelligence was sown. John McCarthy of Dartmouth college named the field, Artificial Intelligence. After the initial excitement, the artificial intelligence winter set in. With the availability of large amounts of data and computing power, we’re seeing a revival in AI. Several fields are being transformed by artificial intelligence now. And that includes writing.
A few months ago, I’d interviewed Paul Yacoubian, the founder of Copy.ai. He is easily one of the most interesting entrepreneurs to watch out for. In just four months, his startup, Copy.ai had gone from $0 to $50,000 in monthly recurring revenue. The company uses the language model GPT3 to write marketing copy. And the traction it is seeing is proof that thousands of people are using it.
It’s not just writing that’s being transformed by AI. It has found applications in several fields, including healthcare, manufacturing, banking, and finance. We figured it is about time we had someone on the show to talk about AI.
In this episode of the Use Case podcast, we talk to Manish Singhal, the founder of Pi Ventures on investing in AI and deep tech companies. Pi Ventures is a Bangalore-based fund that only backs companies that uses deep technologies like AI to solve real-world problems.
Timestamps
3:01: Why did Pi Ventures choose to invest in deep tech and its thesis.
6:36: On cancer screening tech from Niramai and mental health company Wysa.
10:50: On Pi Ventures fund II.
13:02: What has changed in deep tech for it to become investible now?
14:52: How Pi Ventures invests.
17:08: Understanding Demand & Supply Resonance Maps
24:24: India’s place in deep tech
28:33: Incremental innovation and 10x innovation
29:34: Domestica capital in deep tech
32:03: Pi Ventures has 42% women-founded deep tech companies
Link to Pi Ventures blog.
There is a saying that debt is often cheaper than equity.
Our topic for today is venture debt, which has become mainstream in the Indian start-up ecosystem of late. In 2019-20, the total amounts raised by venture debt funds was about $62 million which jumped to about $85 million in 2020-21.
As the pool of growth stage start-ups increase, it is fast becoming an attractive non-dilutive alternative to equity financing. Not just that. In many cases, it is a great additive to equity financing as a bridge round. Say you are at a Series B stage company and you know you have to raise the next round in the coming year, but if you were to go out to the market today and raise capital you will get a lesser valuation than what you would if you improve your numbers over the next 10-12 months and then raise. To get that extra 10-12 months runway, Venture Debt can be an alternative to bridge rounds.
Our guest on the podcast today is Ishpreet Singh Gandhi, the Managing Partner and Co-founder of Stride Ventures, one of India's leading venture debt funds. You could listen to the episode on the browser above or on Spotify/ Apple Podcast/ Google Podcast by clicking the play button below:
Here are parts of the transcript (edited slightly for better readability):
Ravish: A good point to start off with might be to understand what venture debt is. Traditionally, we've looked upon debt as a bad thing. Now, venture debt comes in at the stage where a lot of companies do not have the traditional cash flows or even assets (which has been the traditional way for underwriting term loans by banks). You've worked with multinationals as well as start-ups. I know that Lendingkart and Rivigo were some of the first start-ups that you lent to while you were at IDFC. Two questions – what is venture debt and at what stage of a start-up’s life cycle should one explore raising venture debt?
Ishpreet: So venture debt becomes available in eligibility once you've raised your first institutional capital. So moment you raise a venture capital round with an equity infusion of around $4-5 million, you become eligible for venture debt for a very early stage company. And it can go to later stages as well because you remain backed by some of the institutional investors by then.
In terms of standard offering, a traditional venture debt product is typically coming on top of venture capital round. So the moment you have a venture capital infusion, you can club your financing with venture debt. Say hypothetically you're a company that is planning to raise ₹50 crores, and you believe that ₹40 crores are getting committed from the VC. The remaining ₹10 crores, you say, okay I do not want to dilute for this capital and that 10 crores can be replaced with the venture debt option, which ends up getting repaid over a period of next 2 to 3 years.
And while doing that you pay a certain interest rate plus you give a certain portion of warrants in the company, which can be 10-15% of the debt amount. And that typically ensures that you do not dilute your stake in the company for those ₹10 crore rupees.
It's been a very widely used tool in the US and the mature economies. It came in existence in the 70s-80s in the US when Venture Capital started coming in and today constitutes a very large portion of the US equity market. Its size ranges anywhere from 13-15% of the Venture Capital market in the US. And some of the other economies like Europe, it will be 8-10%. It's gaining steam in India – it will be around 3-4% of the Indian Venture Capital market today. We think it can be a billion-dollar market in the next one and half years because it is closely correlated with the Venture Capital market and we have seen that grow exponentially over the years.
Our whole purpose remains - how it can be used by founders. Because a lot of founders realize while raising rounds that they end up diluting a lot, which could have been replaced by debt.
The other point, which you have to understand is that this debt can be replaced by equity because this has to be repaid. It's a loan ultimately. A founder must understand that this should be done at a time when you can afford to repay. So it can backfire if you have not timed it well or have not done it in an educated manner. And that's where it's very important for the founders to realise the importance in terms of creating non-dilutive structures which can be repaid.
Another benefit is that the turnaround time is faster than the typical equity venture capital fundraise.
Ravish: What are some of the other pros and cons to taking venture debt? When receivables aren’t coming in or if you’re using it just as a way to prevent dilution and not using the money - then effectively you might just end up paying interest on undeployed capital! When is the right time to take it? And also at what point should you not take debt?
It's a very valid question. When you raising the capital round, you have to be very sure of how much capital you're looking for. And I'm sure generally founders are aware of that. So of the 40- 50 crores of capital being required upfront, it's very important for a founder to understand and forecast the revenues and losses. And then back-calculate that this is the type kind of runway I want for my company for the next couple of years. to check if they should take venture debt.
When I started Stride in 2019 and went to the Venture Cap ecosystem and founders, there were mixed reviews. People are clear of the fact if they’d be pre-revenue or very minimal in revenues - so revenues are not very clear. That's where the traditional venture debt of long-term loan comes in. And, and more importantly, this is an instrument that works beautifully where you're sure that this is a fix-six year story.
That's why I said it's very critical for the founder to time it, well, they should be on top of their business.
Ravish: How do incoming venture capital investors (ex: a Series B investor coming in) look at companies or start-ups that have already some amount of debt on their balance (say debt taken while/ after raising Series A)?
Ishpreet: So venture capital investors have started realizing the importance. We work very closely with all the top funds in the country. Our portfolio has a lot of companies funded by Sequoia, Accel, Elevation, Chiratae, and others. The whole purpose is that they also don't want to dilute in good companies and they would want debt funds to contribute, to grow their portfolio companies.
Ravish: But this is for existing investors, what about incoming ones?
Ishpreet: In both the cases we have seen it is complimentary. And that's where your first aspect of the question comes in handy - asking what the use case is and how do they intend to repay debt- do they repay when they raise equity capital or do they immediately repay or do they keep on holding onto it. We have, I think in our portfolio, already seen more than 15 companies raising or about to complete the follow on equity rounds. In fact, they were talking about augmentation of further debt!
Because the genuine capital requirements cases can be replaced by debt.
Most would not want to raise large equity rounds if that capital requirement can be complemented with debt. Especially where the marketing spends are high and that additional capital can generate the delta revenue for you.
Ravish: Is that the same as Accounts Receivable financing?
Ishpreet: No. AR financing is more of receivable financing for corporates. That is typically like capital provided for you for a marketing spend. So it's more prevalent in the B2C companies where you say, okay, I have to increase my Google spends and my marketing spends by 10% - on that I can generate 20% more winnings, but I do not have that source of capital to do it from equity investor. In AR financing the repayment happens as a share of revenue every month. In Venture Debt the repayment also happens monthly but it is secured lending done on the assets of the company. AR financing is unsecured and it is done as a share of the revenue. There the return for the lender can be as high as 25-26% because they are taking a larger risk because if a company is unable to pay you back, you practically can’t do anything.
Why this topic for this season’s first episode - A few days ago, one of my best friends from college got an offer from a Thrassio like set up to buy X% stake in her D2C company. Now she had bootstrapped and built this business from absolute zero to a multi-crore turnover company with ~30% margins on each sale! Yet she felt absolutely lost and helpless during the negotiations because she had no clue how pre-money and post-money valuations worked. As a builder and an operator, her primary skill set was building stuff. On the other side of the table were multiple ex- PE guys whose only job was to do these calculations and negotiations inside out.
At that stage, I realised how important it is to understand how valuations, dilution and investor rights in term sheets work. I figured, if ever I want to start up myself - THEN would NOT be the right time to know about these basics.
Moreover, working at start ups mean you’re working for ESOPs and to know what the value of ESOPs could be at various stages, one must understand how dilution and liquidation preferences work.
So, in this episode of the Use Case podcast, I’m thrilled that Kushal Bhagia, who is the founder and CEO of First Cheque, could join us to explain these important concepts. He’s a super founder friendly investor who has been trying to educate the market on these concepts with his Youtube series called “Know your termsheet”.
These are some of the things we cover in this episode. They’ll help you make sure you’re getting a fair deal.
* 04:00 - Context setting
* 07:50 - Your company has a value only because an investor is putting money in it - fir that new shares are created -> dilution happens; pre-money and post-money explained with an example
* 13:20 - Key items agreed in a term sheet; terms and conditions that come with this collateral free money that you get; tag along rights, pre-emptive rights.
* 26:00 - If an exit happens, in what order and how much will people get money; preferential shares, participating and non-participating shares
* 35:00 - Special case of accelerators, pre-seed rounds, convertible debt (YC specific - SAFEs)
* 44:00 - What bets do VCs like to make? Honestly, expect a no.
Listen to this episode in your favourite podcasting app:
One of the most common things you hear in the world of startups is “We weren’t able to monetise.”
The theme that often plays out is this - the team gets excited about an idea - they start working on it - they talk to customers and if everything works out, they build a great product with an obvious demand in the market. However, in this entire journey as engineers and product enthusiasts we first build the full product and then, almost as an afterthought, decide what to price it at and how to sell it!
Pricing strategy is an important concept that must be incorporated into the plan from Day 1 - even before execution because if you know what your potential customers are willing to pay for, you will automatically prioritise features to fit the price (a.k.a cost based pricing).
In this episode with Dr Sreelata Jonnalagedda, Associate Professor at IIM Bangalore - we discuss how startups can adopt a pricing strategy that is right for them. In the short 30 minutes, I think Dr Sreelata managed to squeeze at least 6 case studies and examples discussing everything from decoy pricing to predatory pricing.
Here are 3 of my favourite examples from the episode:
Framing - Make it difficult to compare competitors’ features! Especially for SaaS.
Prof Sreelata gives a very interesting example comparing Dropbox and Google Drive. Now, there is not a lot of difference in cloud storage, right? Whether you store your files in A or in B, ultimately as a consumer you are deriving similar value from both. So what would you do? You would go with whatever is the cheapest!
But here is something successful startups do - they make it difficult for users to compare features against their competitors’ products. This works where there is not a lot of scope for differentiation in product offering. Dropbox has a loooong list of features across its plans and even if I open the website from India, it still prices the storage in US $. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Most users hate doing complicated maths and making detailed price to value comparisons for every purchase. Framing your pricing with the offering in a way that makes it harder to compare your product is a smart option.
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Predatory Pricing: Uber, Ola, Swiggy, Jio, Delhivery, Bounce
Many times market disruption involves new habit creation. Think about the early days of e-commerce when products were priced at massive discounts to incentivise first time online shoppers to buy goods online. Or when as Indians we first learnt to ditch the then omnipresent autos for cabs because they cost the same as taking an auto anyway.
Predatory pricing is a technique where you price your product (say, P1) lower than the equilibrium price in the market (P0 in graph 1) for same or similar products. This allows you to capture a significant market share. Once you’ve built enough customer loyalty to your platform/ product, you change the demand curve altogether.
Now if you increase the price from P1 to P2 (i.e., P2>P1), some customers will stop buying your product but some will stay back because there is an exit cost/ switching cost to leaving your product.
It’s a very aggressive pricing strategy that only those startups that are heavily funded by big growth stage investors are able to follow. It is not something that you can do for a short duration as an experiment and hope to build enough customer loyalty to achieve customer loyalty.
Building loyalty at scale takes both time and big coffers! So do it only if you can afford both.
Bundling - Get Amazon/ Times Prime for ₹999!
Perhaps one of the best example for bundling implemented in the Indian context is Times Prime. For just ₹999 you get subscriptions from Gaana, Sony Liv, ET Prime, TOI, Google One apart from several other benefits from other partners.
I’m not a Times Prime user, but when I looked at the list of offerings under the subscription, I felt like purchasing it just for the sake of perceived benefits it offers.
From the bundled meals at McDonald's to Zoho’s bundled list of enterprise offerings, bundling is everywhere.
Say you are an Ed-Tech platform offering government exam test preparation services. Now the content tested in most of these exams is the same. While making your course pricing catalogue you could offer an SSC exam preparation course for ₹599/ month or you could make a combination and offer SSC + RBI + LIC exam for ₹799/ month.
The first price is a decoy placed to make the consumer find greater perceived value in the ₹799 bundle.
These are just 3 of the many examples Prof Sreelata shared in this episode we did in collaboration with NSRCEL at IIM Bangalore. Do give the episode a listen.
By the way, NSRCEL is a great place for entrepreneurs to start up. Not only do you get support from the faculty at IIMB, but as an incubator, they support you with office space, industry connects and much more. Also, being in the beautiful green IIM-B campus has its perks. Reach out to Shloka for more information!
If you’re a data driven professional, in all likelihood this episode is for you.
There are also some interesting analysis techniques I came across this week, that I thought I’d share. Check them out at the end of this email below !!!
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On the show today JPK and I got a chance to speak with Shripati Acharya, Managing Partner at Prime Venture Partners on how to measure various SaaS Metrics and why valuations are a geometric function of growth. An astute mind, I’m just surprised how calm successful people like him are and they way they structure their thoughts so well.
Of the many cool things Shripati shares, here were my top 3 learnings from him:
A better way to measure LTV
As common as this metric is, it is also the most mistaken one.
Broadly Lifetime Value or LTV is a measure of how valuable a product is to a user. At the very basic level it can be defined as the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) divided by the churn. The numerator is a signifier of how much value the product has to the client/user over an average contract period. Shripati argues that instead of using revenue, one should use contribution margin in the numerator. Using ARPU would imply a $1000 product with 10% CM and a $1000 product with 20% CM have the same LTV. But this false sense of pegging value to revenue can lead to costly errors in customer acquisition, he argues.
Next, the denominator relates to the customer lifetime. The lower the churn, the higher the customer lifetime. As Sripathi puts it, “If monthly churn is 10%, customer lifetime is 1/0.1. = 10 months. Meaning in 10 months substantially all the customers acquired today would leave (pretty bad business).”
But there is a problem here. Shripati has written quite extensively on this before:
Startups frequently arrive at pretty attractive customer lifetime figures in their initial days. If a service launches and in the first 6 months only 5% of customers churn, it appears like the startup has achieved a 10% annual churn or a 10 year customer lifetime! Calculating customer lifetime by inverting churn can lead to sky-high customer life-times. Early data does not truthfully reflect customer behaviour over the long term and also suffers from skew due to early adopter behaviour being very different from mainstream users
This can lead to all kinds of disastrous downstream effects such as investing in expensive sales channels that soon prove to be uneconomical.
His advice:
Early-stage startups should focus more on customer payback, ie the time period for recovering customer acquisitions cost (CAC), than calculated LTV. In the absence of customer data, using a sub-24-month payback to inform the choice of sales and marketing strategies is prudent.
Companies A & B have same revenue today, A’s revenue growth rate is 2x of B’s. Why should B be valued 4x/8x/ possibly16x of B?
The chart below from a paper by Morgan Stanley, ‘The Math of Value and Growth’ (link here) shows that the relationship between growth and the P/E is convex. Small changes in growth expectations can lead to large changes in the P/E, especially when growth rates are high.
The key point is that a company growing faster should enjoy a multiple that grows geometrically with the growth rate, not linearly.
This is why SaaS companies that make the same revenue can have very different valuations - and as Shripati notes founders need to recognise this before asking “Why is that company valued so much and not mine?”
How much is 20% NDR worth in the long run?
In a similar context, JPK also made an important observation of how important Net Dollar Retention or NDR is to SaaS companies.
Imagine three companies: one at 120% NDR, one at 140% NDR and the last at 160% NDR. In five years, assuming all else is equal, how much bigger is the last company than the first?
The answer is 4.2x - four times bigger! Each marginal 20% of NDR is a doubling of company ARR in 5 years!
Some interesting links/ readings to help you do better data analysis:
* Using RFM analysis to derive customer insights: RFM analysis is a customer behavior segmentation technique. Based on customers’ historical transactions, RFM analysis focuses on 3 main aspects of customers’ transactions: recency, frequency and purchase amount. These 3 key behaviors can do wonders to analyse the business. Check out this post for how it works: https://towardsdatascience.com/simple-customer-segmentation-using-rfm-analysis-1ccee2b6d8b9
* Two Methods of estimating LTV with a spreadsheet: A nice summary of how you can go about modelling complex scenarios to come up with a measure of LTV using simple excel. Linked to within the presentation is a spreadsheet that showcases examples of the models discussed, each built on a data set of 100,000 rows of fake user profiles. Check it out: https://www.slideshare.net/EricSeufert/ltv-spreadsheet-models-eric-seufert
The importance of thinking in outcomes
When Gaurav Munjal, the founder and CEO of Unacademy was pitching to Nexus, he was asked - how could a company offering video test prep solutions scale in a country with such poor internet bandwidth (this was the pre Jio era)?
He simply pointed the committee to the fact that the lessons were not a video - they were instead a slide deck with a pointer made to look like a video! He could have switched on mumbo jumbo mode and talked about fancy compression algorithms for running videos on low bandwidth that would give Pied Pipper a run for its money, but instead he was thinking not about features, but about the outcome - which at the end of the day was to help people crack UPSC and not stream high quality videos.
As founders and PMs it’s often that we get lost in a complexity of our own design and forget to think about the problem that the company/ product is trying to solve. We get obsessed by features.
When I asked Pratik Poddar of Nexus Venture Partners, our guest on this episode of the podcast about his thesis for evaluating companies, his answer was quick - Is the company/product outcome oriented? And that got me thinking, just as for a company (for a founder) it is important to think about outcomes, for us as PMs it becomes imperative to ask ourselves - will this feature/ product solve something or is positioned in a way that the user feels an intrinsic need to use the product?
If so, then the outcome of using the product will automatically be clear to the user - enticing a willingness to pay/ try out the product. Not only that, it would also lengthen the average time spent by the customer on your product.
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Personally, I’ve seen the massive difference this approach brings. When we started indiagold, we set out to build a Gold backed Open Credit Enablement Network (GOCEN) offering gold loans. But in order to increase our topmost acqui-funnel and encourage word of mouth, we offered a product called Digital Gold. Now, digital gold is something you can find on almost all major apps like Paytm, Google Pay, etc. People buy and sell gold - mostly with a trader mindset. But that is not something we wanted. We asked ourselves, what is the intrinsic motivation for Indians to buy gold and how do we replicate that virtually? We found the answer in the fact that deep down in the our minds, gold is a form of savings for an Indian household. We immediately changed the positioning of the same product designed for a trader mind to that for a savers mind. We pictorially depicted a user’s progress in saving gold in grams which encouraged them to keep buying again and again in an amount of their choice like ₹50,₹100, ₹200 (rather than trading in a one of instance). We also gave the option to a user to convert this digital gold into physical gold (again, the emotional satisfaction of holding physical gold in your hand bought out of your own savings).
This encouraged stickiness.
And it’s abundantly clear that VCs like Pratik value that. Which is something he also talked about on the podcast on the 2 kinds of business models that he looks out for.
Now, to listen to the 2 kind of models, you will have to listen to the show. It’s a ~30 odd minutes episode and very insightful. You could listen on the audio file above or on your favourite podcasting app. Let us know what you think! Share it with your friends if you like it - you could forward this email/ share it on Twitter/ do you thing buddy - get those bragging rights!
Byrne Hobart called it “the Vegas Wedding Chapel of liquidity events” - quick and easy.
One of the hottest trends of 2020 among late stage tech companies was to go public via a SPAC or Special Purpose Acquisition Company. SPACs are essentially blank cheque companies set up and listed with the sole purpose of merging and taking another company public in the next 2 years or so.
This episode however is much more than just about SPACs. For anyone interested in Venture Capital, growth investing and tech - it is a must listen!
Our guest on the show, Gopal Jain co-founded Gaja Capital, one of India’s leading Private Equity firms, in 2004 and is a managing partner at the firm. He has led several of the firm’s investments in sectors including education and financial services. He is one of the more experienced private equity investors in India having led or co-led over 25 private equity investments since 1995.
This episode is part of a 4 episode series on the best Indian business books nominated for the prestigious Gaja Capital Business Book Prize 2020.
Don’t miss out Gopal’s 1 key tip at the end of the show on how to break into Private Equity. Hope you enjoy the show!
Why are Amazon, Reliance, Walmart backed Flipkart, and several others competing for a piece of the action in online grocery retailing? Consider some numbers from Redseer:
⚡️Grocery is expected to be a $790 billion market by 2024. Of this, online grocery is expected to be around $18.2 billion.
⚡️ The market, currently around $603 billion in size, is dominated by traditional retail (95.7%).
⚡️Only 0.3 % of the market is served by online retail and 4% is served by modern retail. The remaining is still catered to by traditional stores.
What do these numbers tell us?
The headroom for growth is massive! At the risk of sounding cliched, I’ll say this: even if you end up with a modest 1% of the market, you’d have a business that sells goods worth over $7.9 billion a year.
What will help drive this growth?
* Improvement in supply chain infrastructure
* Expansion to smaller cities
* Government policy that allows 100% FDI in food and retail
Did the lockdown slow them down? Not at all. On the contrary, after a slowdown in the months of March and April, they grew faster.
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Since I started tracking the sector in 2012, dozens of startups have come and gone. But one company has been constantly on my radar: BigBasket. The company, which mostly focused on heads down execution, was valued at $1.2 billion in their previous round of funding (2019). As per reports, their valuation is likely trending upwards of $2 billion now.
BigBasket is not our typical startup with young founders, snazzy tech, and headline-grabbing public relations machinery. Its founders are older, it works in a business with razor-thin margins, yet is inching closer to profitability, and it has held its own even when hyper funded startups unleashed deep discounting blitzkrieg.
How does the company win? What makes it tick? In the book ‘Saying No to Jugaad: The Making of BigBasket’, authors T N Hari and Subramanian MS tell you how. The book gives us an insider’s view of what helps the company succeed. It talks about culture, strategic decisions, and focused execution. In this episode of the podcast, we discuss the book. This episode is brought to you by the Gaja Capital Book Prize which was instituted to celebrate the best books on contemporary Indian business.
Listen in!
JPK & Ravish
PS: Also check out this episode on getting startup hiring right on The Orbit Shift Podcast. It is a podcast that I’ve been working and brings you practical insights from founders, investors, and experts.
★ Giveaway alert ★
We’re giving away five copies of the book ‘Saying No to Jugaad: The Making of BigBasket’ to our listeners. All you have to do is to say something (be nice 😊) about this episode on Twitter or LinkedIn with the hashtag #UseCasePodcast. Tag me and Hari.
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