Theoretical and empirical work on export dynamics has generally assumed constant
marginal production cost and therefore ignored domestic product market conditions.
However, recent studies have documented a negative correlation between firms' do-
mestic and export sales growth, suggesting that firms can be capacity constrained in
the short run and face increasing marginal production cost. This paper develops and
estimates a dynamic model of export behavior incorporating short-term capacity con-
straints and endogenous capital investment. Consistent with the empirical evidence,
the model features firms' sales substitutions across markets in the short term, and
generates time-varying transition paths of firm responses through firms' capital adjust-
ments over time.
The model is fit to a panel of plant-level data for Colombian manufacturing indus-
tries and used to simulate how firm responses transition following an exchange-rate
devaluation. The results indicate that incorporating capital adjustment costs is quan-
titatively important, as shown by the length of the transition period, and the difference
between the short-run and long-run exchange rate elasticity of exports. Firms' expeca-
tion on the permanence of the policy changes also matters.