2023 NFL Week 17

Our leans for week 17. Our contests are not looking good, but we are not giving up. Fingers crossed.

Buffalo Bills: -12

LA Rams: -4.5/-5.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -3

Seattle Seahawks: -3.5

Green Bay Packers: +2

Good luck to everyone and their teams

-WA DAWGS

WAD 016 - 2023 NFL Week 16 

Can We Make Up Some Ground This Week? Please! 

Have to keep this short and sweet.

Our Mean Leans Week 16: This is a tough week.

Circa and Westgate:

Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em: (local Washington casino)

Okay, gotta run and shop and get ready for Christmas. 

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays, and Happy Football to you all.

Love, WA DAWGS

WAD 015 - 2023 NFL Week 15

Welcome back to WA DAWGS! Its week 15 and this week looks Brutal with a capitol B.

Leans For Week 15:

Las Vegas Raiders:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Detroit Lions:

Chicago Bears:

Dallas Cowboys:

Good luck to you all!

WA DAWGS

2023 NFL Week 14: Hanging In There

Leans for Week 14 NFL: Our picks for the Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest

New York Jets: +3.5 at Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest

New York Giants: -6.5 at Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest

Baltimore Ravens: -7 at Circa Millions, and -7.5 at Westgate SuperContest

Miami Dolphins: -13 at Circa Millions, and -13 at Westgate SuperContest

Indianapolis Colts: -1 at Circa Millions, and PK at Westgate SuperContest

Side Note: we are also playing the Beat the Point Spread Pigckin Pick Em’ at our local Snoqualmie casino. And they have different spreads than the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. So we ended up changing our 5 ATS games from what we picked at Circa and Westgate. We got Seattle Seahawks at a +12.5, as opposed to 10.5 at the other books. Love the extra 2points of value there. And we got Cleveland at a +3 instead of the -3.0, -3.5. Which is 6 points of value, so we had to take Cleveland. Hope it works out to our advantage.

Snoqualmie Casino:

Fingers crossed for week 14. Best of luck to you all

2023 NFL Week 13: All Busted Up

Last week was brutal—no need to rehash our fails. But needless to say, we are not quitting our day jobs anytime soon. Who knows where we are on Circa Millions? We spiraled and lost our way down on the list of contestants in the Westgate SuperContest. But we are #3 in our local casino, the Snoqualmie Casino, Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘em. We are not quitters, so we will not give up and hope for a good bounce back. 

Leans for Week 13 NFL:

Tennesee Titans:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Washington Commanders:

Houston Texans:

Green Bay Packers:

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Fran 49ers:

Good luck to all of you and your bets and games! WA DAWGS

2203 NFL Week 12 Season

Heads STILL Hangin Low: 

Talk about getting kicked while we are down! Week 11 was not good. We went 1 and 4 at both the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. And 2 and 3 at our local Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em. 

At this point, we are really questioning our sanity. These contests cause so many emotional ups and downs. I know, I know, you are thinking, ‘Journal it or see a therapist, just get on with the leans!’ 

BUT by the grace of some higher power, we are still in second place at our local casino Snoqualmie. So, never give up hope!

Week 12 Leans: as of now, we are using the Circa lines, but we have not gotten the actual spreads for the contests yet.

Detroit Lions -7.5 (over Green bay)

Seattle Seahawks +7 (over 49er’s)

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (over Pittsburgh)

Tennessee Titans -3.5 (over Carolina)

NY Giants +3.5 (over NE)

Cleveland Browns +1.5 (over Denver)

LA Rams +1 (over Arizona)

Okay, tomorrow is November 23rd, 2024, Thanksgiving. Looking forward to hanging with family, stuffing our guts with good food, and watching football. What more could a gal ask for? 

WADAWGS

2023 NFL Week 11 - Heads Hangin Low

Oh man, we are feeling beat up and humbled from week 10! We tanked, sank, and got destroyed last week. This week, we are picking ourselves up, spitting the dirt out, and ready to get back in the saddle for week 11.

But we did so poorly. We only got a push and all losses at the Circa and Westgate. We fell fast and hard in that competition. Can we get back on top? Well, it really comes down to this week. We must get back on top this week to salvage any possible winnings and our pride. And to add salt to the wound, we got kicked out of Survivor at the Circa. Those darn Bengals lost, which stopped us in our tracks for the Survivor game. But it was so much fun, and can’t wait to get spanked next year when we sign right back up.

There is a little silver lining, though. We won the first half of the Snoqualmie Casino’s contest called Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em and walked away with $3750.

On to week 11! Maybe it's because of our bad beat last week (we took way too much chalk), but I'm feeling so conflicted. The lines at the Snoqualmie Casino differ from the Circa and Westgate, and we are taking different teams. Bc Snowqualmie uses older lines, and we got some real gifts.

For example, Snoqualmie Casino (just for their contest) has Pittsburgh at a +4 over Cleveland, whereas Circa/Westgate has the spread at Pittsburgh +1. They also have Chicago at a +10 over Detroit, and Circa/Westgate has them at a +8/+7.5.

So this is what we are thinking:

Snoqualmie Casino Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em:

- Chicago Bears +10 over the Detroit Lions

- Pittsburgh Steelers +4 over the Cleveland Browns

- Miami Dolphins -10 over the Las Vegas Raiders (Circa/Westgate are -13.5)

- Carolina Panthers +11 over the Dallas Cowboys (Circa/Westgate are +10)

- Debating between Jaguars -6.5 (Circa/Westgate are -7) or Broncos -1.5 (Circa/Westgate are -2.5)

Circa and Westgate:

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Just love the points on this one. While San Francisco killed the Jaguars last week. This is a look-ahead game bc the 49ers play the Seahawks next week in a very tough division rivalry. And on my math model, I have TB at +7.5, like the value here.

- Carolina Panthers: love the points on this one, too! Yes, Dallas decimated the Giants last week. They don’t play as well at home, and it is a short week for them. Dallas has to play on Thursday, Thanksgiving, in a tough rivalry against the Commanders. Even though the coach, Frank Reich of the Panthers, is taking back offensive calls (not sure why, bc the offensive coordinator T Brown seems really good), I think it will be up to the Panther’s defense to hold tight. They don’t have to win, just cover.

- Miami: To cover, they have to win by 14. That is a lot of points to lay, and kinda feeling it but still wavering. It's a good spot for Miami after that loss to KC in Germany and a bye last week. And as much as I love that new coach for LV, Antonio Pierce, come on, it's the Raiders.

That’s all I got. It’s coming down to the 11th hour, and that is all I got. Leaning a tiny bit toward the Jets, Jacksonville (good comeback game?), Houston (I mean is Kyler Murray all that and a bag of chips?), and maybe Broncos (at home in Denver, prime time and everyone is on the Josh Dobbs bandwagon, public dawgs usually die).

Okay, I’m off to meditate, pray, and bargain with the Gods. Good luck to you all and your bets. Let’s take a line from The Hunger Games, ‘May the odds be ever in your favor.’

Xox WA DAWGS

NFL Week 10: We Made Some Money!

We made money this last week at the Snoqualmie Casino’s contest called Beat the Point Spread Pick ‘Em. Week 9 marked the halfway point in the contest, and the first-place prize was $3750.

WA DAWGS was top-dawg, and we cashed in. We came in 6th place at Westgate, so we almost got a prize, as they have the top 1-5 winners cashing in. And at Circa Millions, we are nowhere near the top of the heap in that contest. But we did survive another week in the Circa Survivor contest. 

Recap:

Westgate Supercontest 4:1 

Circa Millions 3:2

Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington State: 3 wins/1 push/ one loss

Circa Survivor contest: We survived by taking the Browns (beating the Cardinals).

On to our leans!

2023 NFL Week 10 Leans:

Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

Seattle Seahawks -6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars +3

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3

There are a few other leans, but I still dwell on them. I like ATL for the win. I know Kyler Murray is back. But it has been like 18 months since he played a game. There is going to be some serious rust.  How could you not pine for the points on the Broncos (+7.5) and the Browns (+6)? Rob is leaning toward Detroit, and I have a couple of value points on the Chargers. Also, the Jets look good as a bounce-back, and I have 1.5 points of value on them.

Circa Survivor Lean:

We have used up a lot of great teams, so our pickings are starting to slim. This week leaning toward the Bengals to win and survive to week 11. 

There are 9 weeks left. And we are looking, hoping, and praying to pull up the ranks at the Westgate, keep surviving the Circa Survivor, and stay on top of the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino. I might be an optimist at heart, but rising in the Circa Millions contest, considering where we are at now…Well, that is going to be a tough act to pull off. But hey, it’s NFL football, where anything can happen. Good Luck to everyone’s picks and teams!

Ready for a BounceBack!

With hat in hand, we are back to try and win some victories for week 9. After our stunning week 7, we collapsed in week 8.

We went a lousy 2:3 in the Circa Millions and Westgate Supercontest. Just like Frank, the original George said, ‘You’re riding high in April, shot down in May.’

We were riding high in week 7 and got totally shot down in week 8. For week 9, we will pick ourselves up and get back in the race. 

Recap:

Westgate Supercontest and Circa Millions 2:3

But we actually did a little better in the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington State. And by the hair of our chinny chin chins, we are still in first place there.

We did 3:2 at our local home casino.

Plus, we are still in the Circa Survivor contest because we took the Chargers, and they beat the Bears.  

Circa Survivor Week 9:

Week 9 ATS Leans:

Buffalo Bills:

New York Jets: 

Washington Commanders:

Cleveland Browns:

Right now, I only have four leans. I need to work on the numbers and think/talk more about the other games. Maybe LV, bc we loved the new coach, Antonio Pierce’s talk at the press conference. Maybe the LA Rams if Matty Stafford plays, or perhaps KC as a bounce-back in Germany against Miami. Not sure yet, but I can say for sure Wa Dawgs is ready to change that week 8 tune and get back on top in week 9!

Thank you for listening to the WA DAWGS podcast, and wishing you all a great week 9 of NFL football.

We are back! Last week, we pulled out some great covers to bounce back from the horrific 4-1 week six.

Week 7 Recap:

Westgate Supercontest: 5-0

- ATL +2.5

- Chicago +3

- Baltimore -3

- Philidelphia -2.5

- Seattle -8

Circa Millions: 4:1 (Val was determined to take the darn Rams!)

- LA Rams -3 (LOSS)

- Chicago +3

- Baltimore -3

- Philidelphia -2

- Seattle -7.5

Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in WA state:

We did 5-0 at our local home casino.

- ATL +2.5

- Chicago +3

- Baltimore -3

- Philidelphia -2.5

- Seattle -8

Plus, to top an orgasmic week of football covers, we SURVIVED one more week of Circa Survivor contest! We took the Seattle Seahawks.

This week, we are looking to take the LA Chargers to win against the Bears for our Survivor pick. Fingers crossed!

Let’s Get to the ATS Leans!

Jacksonville Jaguars:

This is a good spot for the Jags. The Steelers are coming off a big win over the Rams. A win that really came down to some serious luck for the Steelers and very bad luck for the Rams. Jacksonville has won some games that you would not have expected them to. Not to mention, the Jaguars are going into a bye next week. And teams do well when going into a bye.

Washington Comanders:

I love a home-dawg! While the Commanders have done me dirty in past bets, I still lean towards them covering the spread. It is a good bounce-back and it’s a good time to fade the Eagles bc I am feeling a regression here. Plus, this is a ‘sandwich-game’ for the Eagles. The Eagles played their AFC rival, Miami, last week, and in week 9, will be playing their own NFC division rival, Dallas. So this is a great let-down spot for Philidelphia as they look ahead to the Dallas challenge.

Miami Dolphins:

As mentioned, the Dolphins took a bad beat from the Eagles last week. They need this win to stay ahead of the Bills and win their division. While the New England Patriots need this win also, just to stay relevant, I think that Miami will easily cover. I actually have the math at Miami as a -11, so there is a couple points of value here. Plus, New England is a dawg-favorite and on the road. Public dog favs tend to crash.

Green Bay Packers:

Leaning toward the Packers. Not exactly sure why, bc my math doesn’t show any value. But my gut is saying, this is a short week for the Vikings and they are coming off a huge win to SanFran. So this would be a good time to fade Minnesota. Also, Green Bay is at home and they really, desperately need a win here.

Detroit Lions:

Monday night prime-time and anything can happen! But not seeing an upset here. I have the Lions at a -10.5 on my handicapping, so finding some value. Detroit is at home, Goff plays well at home and in a dome. And after that bad beat by Baltimore, I see Detroit winning and covering. While the Raiders played poorly and loss to Chicago last week, I don’t see them bouncing back.

Seattle Seahawks (Only at Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em ):

At the Snowqualmie casino, our local casino nearby, they have the Seahwks spread for their contest at -2.5. The Circa and Westgate have them at a -3.5. So I like the idea of the Seahawks winning by a field goal. Now it does worry me that the ultra-strong defense of the Browns could have Gino Smith scrambling around with nowhere to throw. But I really like the extra value at a -2.5.

Cincinnati Bengals (Only at Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em ):

Again, it seems that the Snowqualmie casino is giving us a gift. They have the Bengals at +6. As opposed to the Circa and Westgate that have them at a +3.5. Sure, I hear what you might be saying, ‘the 49er’s could not lose a 3rd game!’. They don’t need to lose, as I could easily see the Bengals covering this +6 point spread. Not to mention, my numbers show the Bengals at a +4.5. So getting the Bengals at a +6, I like that value.

Thank you for listening to the WA DAWGS podcast. Wishing you all the best of luck on your games!

Val and Rob, WA DAWGS