UK economic signals painted a mixed picture last week. Retail sales beat expectations in July, though sharp backward revisions tempered optimism, while Halifax data showed house prices at record highs despite affordability concerns. Yet headwinds remain, as employment contracted at its fastest pace in four years following the payroll tax raid and borrowing costs climbed, heightening the risks of a housing slowdown. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) growth offered resilience, but manufacturing and construction remained weak, with cement production at 1950s lows. Bank of England (“BoE”) officials struck a cautious tone, signalling slower rate cuts and bond sales, as inflation expectations ticked higher, underscoring persistent structural fragility...

Stocks featured:

Admiral Group, Babcock International and Fresnillo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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The UK economy presented a mixed picture last week as inflationary pressures persisted alongside signs of a weakening labour market. Food price inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-on-year, driven by higher global supply costs and seasonal pressures, while energy bills are set to rise by more than expected this winter, adding to household strains. Labour market data showed vacancies at a five-year low and analysts warned unemployment could soon reach 5%. Retail sales volumes also weakened for an 11th consecutive month in August. Meanwhile, shops have raised prices by the most since the end of 2023, according to the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) distributive trades survey. Meanwhile, Bank of England (“BoE”) officials struck contrasting tones: Governor Andrew Bailey flagged weak growth challenges, while Catherine Mann cautioned that inflation risks remain elevated, reinforcing the fragile balance the BoE faces between growth and inflation...

Stocks featured:

Bunzl, Fresnillo and Kingfisher

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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The S&P 500 index rallied on Friday to close 0.29% higher, recovering some ground after four consecutive days of losses. The technology sector led the decline earlier in the week as the artificial intelligence (“AI”) sector came under pressure, with the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks suffering a three-day sell-off. Concerns over future profitability combined with stretched valuations acted as the trigger, following research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology indicating that 95% of organisations are achieving no returns from AI. Sentiment was further weighed by comments from OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, who cautioned that an AI bubble may be forming...

Stocks featured:

JD Sports Fashion, Rolls-Royce and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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This week the UK economy continued to present a conflicting picture, marked by both resilience and fragility. London bore the brunt of tax-driven job losses, shedding 45,000 roles since October, as payroll tax hikes and a higher minimum wage hit private employers hardest. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (“AI”) is beginning to reshape the labour market, with technology and finance job postings down 38% over the past two years. The Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) posted a gross domestic product (“GDP”) figure which surprised to the upside, expanding 0.3% over the previous quarter, with services, industry and construction delivering broad-based gains. However, exports to the US plunged to a three-year low under tariff pressure, underscoring trade vulnerabilities. Policymakers remain cautious as the Bank of England (“BoE”) warned inflation risks could limit scope for rate cuts, a view reinforced by wage growth holding at 5%...

Stocks featured:

Admiral Group, Beazley and Spirax-Sarco Engineering

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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The UK ended last week with uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) policy direction following a “hawkish” 0.25% cut to the interest rate, bringing it to 4%. The decision was narrowly split (5 votes to 4) and accompanied by higher near-term inflation forecasts and cautious guidance, leaving only a 50% chance of another rate cut this year. In September, the BoE may slow gilt sales, as quantitative tightening appears to have restricted conditions more than expected. Economic data pointed to underlying fragility, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) readings revised upward but still signalling a slowdown. Construction activity contracted sharply, retail footfall slipped and elevated borrowing costs continued to restrain investment. Economists expect multiple rate cuts in 2026 as the BoE balances growth support with inflation control...

Stocks featured:

Fresnillo, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Smith & Nephew

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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The Bank of England (“BoE”) is reportedly considering slowing the pace of quantitative tightening amid rising gilt yields, with Deutsche Bank suggesting this could save the Treasury up to £5 billion next year. Meanwhile, economic signals remain mixed. EY upgraded its UK 2025 growth forecast to 1%, though momentum is expected to remain subdued. Retail sales remain weak, and business distress is rising, with nearly 50,000 firms in critical condition. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) expects two more BoE rate cuts this year, supporting growth prospects, while Lloyds’ business confidence hit a 10-year-high. However, consumer caution persists, with savings surging and food inflation posing risks ahead of Christmas...

Stocks featured:

Mondi, Rolls-Royce and St James's Place

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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UK economic sentiment remains subdued as Deloitte reported their UK consumer confidence index fell by 2.6 points to -10.4 by the end of last quarter and is now at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2024. The steepest declines were seen in perceptions of job security, which fell by 4.8%, and concerns over debt, down 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) came in at 3.6% from 3.4% the month before. We see concerns of inflation acceleration as retailers warned that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ proposed business rate hike from 2026 could push up food prices. Other economic indicators also pointed to weakness, with the July flash Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) signalling a loss of momentum as the composite reading declined. Retail sales posted a modest 0.9% month-on-month recovery in June, but underlying volumes remained weak. However, the job market showed tentative improvement, with London leading a modest rise in vacancies. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) also flagged softer industrial orders but improving optimism. Markets now expect two Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts by year-end, despite inflation likely remaining above target through the third quarter...

Stocks featured:

BT Group, Melrose Industries and Reckitt Benckiser Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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Last week UK economic data painted a mixed picture, with inflation and labour market dynamics pulling in opposite directions. Headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, driven by higher food and wage costs, prompting criticism of Labour’s tax policy. However, unemployment climbed to a four-year high of 4.7%, while job hiring fell sharply and wage growth moderated - bolstering expectations for a potential Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut in August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signalled a willingness to ease policy if labour weakness persists, although policymaker Catherine Mann warned inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Bailey voiced concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff plans, citing risks to global economic stability, and stressed the International Monetary Fund’s (“IMF”) role in addressing imbalances...

Stocks featured:

Barrett Redrow, Experian and Intermediate Capital Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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UK economic data reinforced expectations for an August Bank of England ("BoE") rate cut despite near-term inflation risks. Gross domestic product (“GDP”) unexpectedly contracted 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive monthly decline, while first-quarter growth was revised up to 0.4%. Services grew modestly but falls in production and construction dragged overall output. Updated Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) data revealed higher-than-reported producer inflation, with input prices rising 0.6% in January. Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Alan Taylor warned of downside risks and urged faster easing. Business sentiment remained fragile, with BDO’s hiring index at a 13-year low and Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”) confidence at a three-year low. Yet, Royal Bank of Scotland reported a pick-up in services-driven private sector activity. Firms also flagged price hikes to offset payroll tax rises, highlighting persistent cost pressures...

Stocks featured:

BP, Glencore and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economic data last week painted a mixed picture. Retail sales remained subdued, with BDO’s High Street Sales Tracker rising just 0.6% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of in-store sales growth trailing inflation. The construction sector continued to contract, although the Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) improved to 48.8, its highest level since January. Encouragingly, first-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth was confirmed at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter - the fastest in the Group of Seven (“G7”) - yet this momentum is unlikely to be sustained amid falling living standards. The services sector experienced its fastest expansion in 10 months, with a PMI of 52.8, but job losses persisted. The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained a cautious stance, with Governor Andrew Bailey reinforcing hopes for rate cuts in light of a softening labour market and mixed inflation signals...

Stocks featured:

British American Tobacco, Berkeley Group Holdings and Pershing Square Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.