Walker Crips' Market Commentary

The UK ended last week with uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) policy direction following a “hawkish” 0.25% cut to the interest rate, bringing it to 4%. The decision was narrowly split (5 votes to 4) and accompanied by higher near-term inflation forecasts and cautious guidance, leaving only a 50% chance of another rate cut this year. In September, the BoE may slow gilt sales, as quantitative tightening appears to have restricted conditions more than expected. Economic data pointed to underlying fragility, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) readings revised upward but still signalling a slowdown. Construction activity contracted sharply, retail footfall slipped and elevated borrowing costs continued to restrain investment. Economists expect multiple rate cuts in 2026 as the BoE balances growth support with inflation control...

Stocks featured:

Fresnillo, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Smith & Nephew

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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The Bank of England (“BoE”) is reportedly considering slowing the pace of quantitative tightening amid rising gilt yields, with Deutsche Bank suggesting this could save the Treasury up to £5 billion next year. Meanwhile, economic signals remain mixed. EY upgraded its UK 2025 growth forecast to 1%, though momentum is expected to remain subdued. Retail sales remain weak, and business distress is rising, with nearly 50,000 firms in critical condition. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) expects two more BoE rate cuts this year, supporting growth prospects, while Lloyds’ business confidence hit a 10-year-high. However, consumer caution persists, with savings surging and food inflation posing risks ahead of Christmas...

Stocks featured:

Mondi, Rolls-Royce and St James's Place

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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UK economic sentiment remains subdued as Deloitte reported their UK consumer confidence index fell by 2.6 points to -10.4 by the end of last quarter and is now at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2024. The steepest declines were seen in perceptions of job security, which fell by 4.8%, and concerns over debt, down 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) came in at 3.6% from 3.4% the month before. We see concerns of inflation acceleration as retailers warned that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ proposed business rate hike from 2026 could push up food prices. Other economic indicators also pointed to weakness, with the July flash Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) signalling a loss of momentum as the composite reading declined. Retail sales posted a modest 0.9% month-on-month recovery in June, but underlying volumes remained weak. However, the job market showed tentative improvement, with London leading a modest rise in vacancies. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) also flagged softer industrial orders but improving optimism. Markets now expect two Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts by year-end, despite inflation likely remaining above target through the third quarter...

Stocks featured:

BT Group, Melrose Industries and Reckitt Benckiser Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week UK economic data painted a mixed picture, with inflation and labour market dynamics pulling in opposite directions. Headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, driven by higher food and wage costs, prompting criticism of Labour’s tax policy. However, unemployment climbed to a four-year high of 4.7%, while job hiring fell sharply and wage growth moderated - bolstering expectations for a potential Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut in August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signalled a willingness to ease policy if labour weakness persists, although policymaker Catherine Mann warned inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Bailey voiced concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff plans, citing risks to global economic stability, and stressed the International Monetary Fund’s (“IMF”) role in addressing imbalances...

Stocks featured:

Barrett Redrow, Experian and Intermediate Capital Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economic data reinforced expectations for an August Bank of England ("BoE") rate cut despite near-term inflation risks. Gross domestic product (“GDP”) unexpectedly contracted 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive monthly decline, while first-quarter growth was revised up to 0.4%. Services grew modestly but falls in production and construction dragged overall output. Updated Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) data revealed higher-than-reported producer inflation, with input prices rising 0.6% in January. Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Alan Taylor warned of downside risks and urged faster easing. Business sentiment remained fragile, with BDO’s hiring index at a 13-year low and Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”) confidence at a three-year low. Yet, Royal Bank of Scotland reported a pick-up in services-driven private sector activity. Firms also flagged price hikes to offset payroll tax rises, highlighting persistent cost pressures...

Stocks featured:

BP, Glencore and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economic data last week painted a mixed picture. Retail sales remained subdued, with BDO’s High Street Sales Tracker rising just 0.6% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of in-store sales growth trailing inflation. The construction sector continued to contract, although the Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) improved to 48.8, its highest level since January. Encouragingly, first-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth was confirmed at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter - the fastest in the Group of Seven (“G7”) - yet this momentum is unlikely to be sustained amid falling living standards. The services sector experienced its fastest expansion in 10 months, with a PMI of 52.8, but job losses persisted. The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained a cautious stance, with Governor Andrew Bailey reinforcing hopes for rate cuts in light of a softening labour market and mixed inflation signals...

Stocks featured:

British American Tobacco, Berkeley Group Holdings and Pershing Square Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK economy presented a mixed picture last week. Retail sales fell for the ninth consecutive month, with the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) survey revealing a sharper decline in June and pointing to further weakness in July. Although the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) rose slightly to 50.7, signalling marginal growth, manufacturing output remained subdued, and consumer sentiment held flat, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty. Long-term inflation expectations ticked higher, raising concerns over future price stability, while food inflation accelerated to 4.7%, underscoring persistent cost pressures. The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained a cautious stance: Governor Andrew Bailey defended quantitative easing, while Monetary Policy Committee members Megan Greene and Dave Ramsden expressed diverging views on the direction of interest rates. Adding to the subdued outlook, the Resolution Foundation projected stagnant household incomes until 2030, highlighting sustained challenges to living standards. Overall, despite signs of resilience in certain areas, underlying pressures continue to weigh on the UK’s growth outlook...

Stocks featured:

Babcock International, JD Sports Fashion and Rolls-Royce Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK economy is showing mixed signals amid ongoing inflationary pressures and signs of slowing growth. Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene highlighted that inflation remains sticky, driven by persistent wage growth and weaker supply conditions that could keep prices elevated over the medium term. Despite a recent rise in the minimum wage, wage growth has eased slightly, and retail sales have slowed sharply to their weakest pace in over a year. Consumer confidence remained fragile amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns, while April’s gross domestic product (“GDP”) contracted by 0.3%, exceeding expectations for a mild decline. Employment indicators showed softer hiring activity and retail footfall fell despite seasonal factors, reflecting cautious household spending. The BoE also warned banks to prepare for tighter liquidity conditions as reserves approach lower thresholds and noted that households have increased cash hoarding amid global uncertainties...

Stocks featured:

BT Group, easyJet and Melrose Industries

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK economy is showing mixed signals amid ongoing inflationary pressures and signs of slowing growth. Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene highlighted that inflation remains sticky, driven by persistent wage growth and weaker supply conditions that could keep prices elevated over the medium term. Despite a recent rise in the minimum wage, wage growth has eased slightly, and retail sales have slowed sharply to their weakest pace in over a year. Consumer confidence remained fragile amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns, while April’s gross domestic product (“GDP”) contracted by 0.3%, exceeding expectations for a mild decline. Employment indicators showed softer hiring activity and retail footfall fell despite seasonal factors, reflecting cautious household spending. The BoE also warned banks to prepare for tighter liquidity conditions as reserves approach lower thresholds and noted that households have increased cash hoarding amid global uncertainties...

Stocks featured:

BP, easyJet and Persimmon

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economic indicators pointed to persistent disinflation trends last week, even as uncertainty remained elevated. Bank of England ("BoE") Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, reinforced the case for policy easing, noting inflationary pressures are fading and labour market risks warrant caution. Several Monetary Policy Committee members echoed this sentiment in parliamentary appearances, with Swati Dhingra flagging downside risks to growth and Catherine Mann warning of tensions between rate cuts and quantitative tightening. The final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) in May improved to 50.3, led by a rebound in services, but backlogs declined and cost pressures persisted. The Confederation of British Industry’s (“CBI”) private sector growth indicator slipped to a two-year low, and BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey saw little movement in inflation expectations...

Stocks featured:

Antofagasta, Fresnillo and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.