Accumulating snow is on tap for parts of Minnesota this weekend especially on grassy areas. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says there will be a mix of rain and wet snow on Friday night and Saturday. “In southern and central Minnesota, in the Twin Cities area for example, it’s going to probably rain a little bit in the early morning and maybe there’ll be a flake or two of snow mixed in”, says Blumenfeld, “and then it might become a pretty nice Saturday. It’s off to the north when you look at Hinckley and Brainerd and up to Duluth where that same area of precipitation in the morning has a better likelihood of snow rather than rain.” Blumenfeld doesn’t expect a significant snow event but says parts of northern Minnesota could see a few inches. Blumenfeld says we’re entering an active weather pattern with colder than normal temperatures and chances of snow during the next 10 days. Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois also discuss NOAA’s recently released winter outlook and some much needed rain that fell in most of the state earlier this week.

While much of Sunday will be unseasonably warm, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop in western Minnesota by mid-afternoon and rapidly spread eastward through the evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and there’s a small chance of an isolated tornado. “In terms of the kind of cold front-driven summer style thunderstorms, I think what we’re looking at on Sunday night might be the last of the season,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. “The most likely outcome is that none of the thunderstorms do damage of any sort but you get some lightning, some thunder, some heavy rains and maybe some gusty winds,” says Blumenfeld, “but there is a chance that these storms could knock down a few trees and a few of them could get pretty energetic.” Once the showers and thunderstorms move through, expect a big drop in temperatures and a colder weather pattern for the week ahead. Some models are even suggesting a snow event over the coming weekend. Also, a look at an unusually active hurricane season and why some of us caught a whiff of manure in the air recently.

High Temperatures in the Twin Cities will rebound into the 70s starting today and 80 degree readings are not out of the question later in the week for southern Minnesota. All in all, some great fall weather is on tap for most of the state. “There’s a lot of signs that October is going to be a fantastic month,” says climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld. And although many of us may not realize it, this past summer was one of the warmest on record, according to Blumenfeld. “There really weren’t any blockbuster events that people are going to remember from the summer in terms of warmth,” says Blumenfeld. “It wasn’t particularly hot. We didn’t have an unusual number of days above 90 or nights even above 70 degrees. What we really lacked, though, once we got out of June, were those really cool nights.” Blumenfeld says September was cooler and drier throughout the state and lacked the big rainfall events that have happened during the month in recent years. Also, a look at the impact wildfires in the west had on our weather this past month and why the September cold snap helped kick fall colors into high gear.

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will prevail for much of this week with the best chance of precipitation coming on Friday night and Saturday. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says precipitation has lagged statewide so far this month. “It’s not an urgent drought yet,” says Blumenfeld, “and the reason is because there’s not as much sunlight, it’s not as hot, we’re not evaporating the water that’s in the system and we’re not losing it through evaporation and evapotranspiration. And so, you can withstand a September dry spell a little longer than in July before you get into urgent drought conditions.” Despite the pleasant temperatures this week, tomorrow is the Autumnal Equinox and seasonal change is underway, says Blumenfeld. “The sunlight gets weaker. The days get shorter. Those forces conspire to (eventually) bring us winter.”

Minnesota got an early taste of fall last week as unseasonably cold weather brought frost to parts of the state. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says some of the temperatures broke records. “The Twin Cities area had two back-to-back record low maximum temperatures; basically, the high temperature of the day was as low as it had ever been on record two days in a row.” Blumenfeld says the week ahead looks glorious with “a good, strong return to warm, almost hot conditions” especially on Tuesday. Also, a look at the unprecedented wildfires in California, Washington state and Oregon and a record number of simultaneous tropical storms.

There’s a taste of fall in the air, but expect some potentially severe thunderstorms in parts of southern Minnesota late Saturday into early Sunday bringing hail and damaging winds. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld says the weather pattern is set to dramatically shift due to “a powerful cold front that is going to swing through basically covering the whole state falling in from the northwest first late Saturday and then crossing the rest of the state either Sunday or at least by Sunday evening in southeast Minnesota. And once that happens, it’s like switching seasons.” Blumenfeld says below normal temperatures are in store for the coming week, and frost in northern Minnesota can’t be ruled out. But don’t give up on summer as weather models are indicating a warmup coming by mid-month. Also in this episode, a look back at meteorological summer (June-August) and how weather conditions can sometimes impact health.

The storms that impacted parts of Minnesota last night and early this morning are setting up the conditions that may spark more severe weather later this afternoon and evening. “And when that outbreak begins,” says Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld, “it’s probably going to be driven by where the overnight storms kind of terminated.” Blumenfeld says he believes the next round of storms will likely originate “within 75 miles of the Twin Cities and then move eastward to southeastward from there, possibly across the Twin Cities.” The biggest threat from these storms, according to Blumenfeld, will be heavy rain and large hail but there’s also some risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. The heat and humidity will continue through the week, and Blumenfeld says two tropical weather systems may “throw some extra moisture our way later this week,” possibly setting the stage for heavy rains. Also in this episode, a recap of the severe weather event of August 14th-15th that spawned numerous tornadoes, a look at why we’ve seen such vivid lightning displays this summer, and how the dwindling hours of daylight help drive the transition from summer to fall weather conditions.

There’s an enhanced risk of severe weather in parts of Minnesota from this afternoon through Friday night. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois discuss the arrival of a potent storm system that may bring damaging winds, hail and heavy rains to northwestern Minnesota tonight. Tomorrow, the threat expands to the south and east, including the Twin Cities, bringing with it a better chance for tornadoes and wind-driven hail. “We’re going into a seasonal transition, like it or not, and the kind of doldrums of summer are going to be exchanging for the more active and faster moving air patterns that you get in the fall”, says Blumenfeld. After the storms pass, we’ll get a taste of fall for the next several days with low temperatures in northern Minnesota falling into the 40s. Also in this episode, Blumenfeld looks back on this past weekend’s storms that struck the Twin Cities late Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday. “They were all prolific lightning and thunder producers',” says Blumenfeld, and widespread large hail damaged vehicles, roofs and siding in parts of Minnesota.

If you’ve enjoyed the past few glorious days of mild temperatures and low humidities, prepare for a change starting today and continuing through Sunday as much of Minnesota is under the threat of severe weather. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois discuss the weather pattern that will bring higher dew points and the possibility of large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. Blumenfeld says that “a pretty potent batch of thunderstorms” will develop in the northern two-thirds of Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. The storms “could be quite intense” according to Blumenfeld and will build southward towards the Twin Cities and possibly beyond. Blumenfeld says “Saturday looks a little calmer but by Saturday night we’ve got risks for thunderstorms again, and Sunday looks quite active also” with possible severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Also, a look at the “mega rains” of July 25-26 and the possible return of hot weather towards mid-August.

During the evening of July 23rd, 1987 and continuing into the early morning hours of the 24th, more than 10” of rain fell at the Twin Cities International Airport. The so-called “Superstorm” kicked off with a destructive tornado in Maple Grove and Brooklyn Park and morphed into a high-intensity precipitation event that caused massive flash flooding. Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld and Jim du Bois recall the “Superstorm” and the weather conditions that preceded it. Blumenfeld says “the ingredients were not tremendously different from what we’re looking at on Saturday,” but he cautions that a similar storm cannot be predicted, particularly for one particular place, “unless a lot of things come together.” In any event, look for dangerous heat today and Saturday as well as the possibility of severe weather and very heavy rains. Also, we may break what Blumenfeld calls “a nerdy record” if a meteorological value called precipitable water (PWAT) reaches a historic high tomorrow.