The National Weather Service has thought about changing or adjusting it's system of Watch, Warning, and Advisory (WWA) products for the last few years. A series of social science research studies have examined what possible changes could be made, how easy it would be to implement the changes, and whether other organizations could easily adapt to changes. The generalizable public survey was a long-anticipated study of the public to examine how well they truly understand the current WWA system, and whether they might seek more safety actions under a modified or overhauled product system. I examine the report and respond to the recommendations of the report in this episode.

This episode is much longer than the others, but for those interested in the subject, I hope it's well worth it! Thanks for listening.

Continuing a series of podcasts where the date a named tropical cyclone forms (first becomes at least a tropical depression) is examined through the lens of climatological statistics. Ultimately, a prediction is made for how many named tropical storms will occur in 2019 based on the date of formation. 

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- Images obtained from Pixabay.

The Jacksonville forecast office of the National Weather Service (NWS) held an Integrated Warning Team (IWT) meeting for the core media, emergency management, first responder, military, and academic partners. This meeting focused primarily on tropical activity, with the afternoon focusing in on the impacts of Hurricane Irma to Jacksonville and Hurricane Michael to the Florida Panhandle area. Several stories from the perspectives of the NWS, county-level Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs), those who stayed and lived, and those who stayed and perished are told. 

My live-tweeting of this event can be found on Twitter at @srmullens.

Tweets of specific talks can be found at:

• EM Decision Making Process During Tropical Events - Jonathan Lord, Director, Flagler County EM
• WFO Jacksonville Briefings During Tropical Weather Impacts - Angie Enyedi, Senior Meteorologist, NWS Jacksonville
• St. John's River during Hurricane Irma - Al Sandrik, WCM, NWS Jacksonville
• Hurricane Michael - Jessica Fieux, Senior Meteorologist, NWS Tallahassee
• Hurricane Michael Stories - Mike Buresh, Chief Meteorologist, WJAX-TV, Jacksonville
  • Mike Buresh's blog post about his trip to Michael's impacted area. Has pictures to go along with the stories I relay in the podcast. The post (scroll down past the polar vortex content) also includes links to further blog posts, FB live recordings, and podcasts he has done on the event.

- Images obtained from Pixabay.

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed in the Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda on May 20. Although it only lasted three-quarters of a day, it still counts as a named storm. How unusual is it for a named storm to occur this early? What does this early formation tell us about how many named storms will occur in the Atlantic this year? I have some statistics for you.

I actually did some work myself! While attempting to satisfy my curiosity about when 2019's Tropical Storm Andrea will most likely form (May 28 to Aug 4), I stumbled onto something a little bigger than that. You can actually use the dates of when each of the first five tropical storms formed to predict how many named storms will eventually occur during that year. I detail the method, compare to to the Colorado State's Tropical Meterorology Program estimates, and give my thoughts on how a prediction like this can be interpreted and used.

- Images obtained from Pixabay.

Six papers covering hurricanes, convection, and satellite products are discussed in rapid succession. Then, a literature review of sting jets gets the full discussion treatment. 

Quick Hitting Section

Start with three papers on hurricanes.

1:14 - The Extremely Active 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

5:50 - Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Maintaining Intensity during High Vertical Wind Shear and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle

15:05 - Lifetime Evolution of Outer Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure as Diagnosed from Reanalysis and Climate Model Data

Next, issues related to spring and summer storm.

20:43 - Ensemble Spread Grows More Rapidly in Higher-Resolution Simulations of Deep Convection

25:35 - Using the GOES-16 Split Window Difference to Detect a Boundary prior to Cloud Formation

Finally, some quick tips on how models handle atmospheric rivers.

27:53 - Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America

Full Discussion Section - Sting Jets

30:58 - Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: a review

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- Images obtained from Pixabay.

- Sound effects obtained from Zapsplat.

- Intro drums obtained from Looperman.

With Hurricane Florence recently departing, I look at a paper that shows how having our service to the public as an outlet for expressing the outcome of our forecasting efforts may actually be saving us from even more mental health issues that we already see from the rigors of shiftwork.

0:42 - Exploring the Human Side of Meteorology: A Brief Report on the Psychology of Meteorologists

After taking this internal look at meteorologists, I turn to some emergency management journals. First, how do EMs interpret our forecasts?

15:37 - How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Second, what demographic factors determine who evacuates and who leaves from hurricanes. One focuses on the general population of Taiwan, and the other focuses on the language and poverty barriers present in the Rio Grande Valley.

35:20 - Social determinants in choice of shelter: an evidence-based analysis

47:39 - Who will stay, who will leave: Decision-making of residents living in potential hurricane impact areas during a hypothetical hurricane event in the Rio Grande Valley

Meteorologists and Mental Health Resources

• DePodwin, B., 2018: She looks so happy, how can she be depressed?
• Milrad, S., 2016: The mental price of graduate school.
• Zee, G., 2017: Natural Disaster: I cover them. I am one. Kingswell.
• The Weather Junkies, 2018: Mental health in meteorology – Part 1.

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- Images obtained from Pixabay.

- Sound effects obtained from Zapsplat.

- Intro drums obtained from Looperman.

With five hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific, I had to start by talking about hurricanes. And sure enough, there was a paper with an important point to be made about where people have moved to and how it will affect future recovery efforts.

Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfall Frequency and Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks

Next, I covered a controversy over whether a new force has been discovered that creates wind.

Is Condensation-Induced Atmospheric Dynamics a New Theory of the Origin of the Winds?

Finally, in the Great Plains, does soil moisture in the spring lead to more humid days in the summer?

The Relationship between Cool and Warm Season Moisture over the Central United States, 1685–2015

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- Images obtained from Pixabay.

- Sound effects obtained from Zapsplat.

- Intro drums obtained from Looperman.