Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm system in the Gulf of Alaska on Friday 1/5/24 and gathered information about this storm to improve the forecasting accuracy. This storm reached the Pacific coast Saturday night. It moved South along the California coast on Sunday 1/7/24 as mentioned in this episode. This storm in combination with the trailing Alberta Clipper behind it will be responsible for a major weather pattern change bringing winter from Montana into the Plains and the Midwest. The storm system crosses the Rockies and redevelops on Monday over the Texas panhandle into a stronger low-pressure system of 29.4. The storm becomes negatively tilted as it undergoes rapid intensification. The storm intensifies to category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday morning of 28.9 as it moves into the Eastern Great Lakes. The track of the storm heads to Interstate 44 in Missouri from Texas and then Interstate 70 in Illinois. The system then moves Northeast passing south and east of Lake Michigan. Summer heat and humidity develop in south Texas along with an enhanced severe weather risk. At the time of this episode, the risk was a 3 but as of early Monday morning, the risk has increased to a 4 out of 5, especially for areas near southeast Louisiana. This means there is a 40% chance for severe weather within a 25-mile radius in this area or more accurately 40% coverage. This risk includes tornadoes, damaging (58+mph) wind gusts, and damaging hail (1+ inch in diameter). This storm system and especially its abundant moisture is the result of the El Nino weather pattern. As is typical in El Nino years there is minimal phasing between the subtropical and polar jet stream. As a result, the air will not be that cold behind the system. Nonetheless, the combination of evaporative cooling and dynamic cooling along with it being the coldest time of year will help the precipitation fall as snow, especially during the heavier precipitation rates. In addition, thundersnow is likely to develop in parts of Northern Missouri and nearby areas. Chicago lies in the most difficult part of this storm to forecast. In this episode, we speak all about this storm along with the Chicago forecast which will likely see 3 to 6 inches. The official amounts will likely be closer to 6 but unofficially the amount on the ground might be closer to 3 or 4 due to possible melting along with the witness of the snow. This El Nino weather pattern will take upon a new twist starting Thursday the first day of the Lunar month Shvat as an Arctic air mass finally makes its into the midwest behind an Alberta clipper. This will be the 1st of 3punches of Arctic Air. Snow will likely fall with each Arctic front. Gulf moisture will likely be ingested into system number 2. This episode contains more information about this active weather pattern.
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