Intro: Midwest Winter Storm Ingredients (00:00:01)

Chicago's Record November Snowfall (00:01:14)

Lake Effect Snow & Chicago's Uniqueness (00:02:15)

Southern Stream Storms: An Unusual Setup (00:04:26)

Synoptic Analysis: Moisture & Impact (00:06:29)

Snowfall Totals: A Solid 8 Inches (00:07:32)

Contrasting 2021 Data with NWS Info (00:11:47)

Upcoming Storm System #1: Gulf Coast (00:12:52)

System #2: Potential Missouri/Illinois Snow (00:15:00)

System #3: Cold Front Snow Event (00:19:11)

Extended Outlook: Polar Vortex Watch (00:20:20)

Concluding Thoughts & This Winter's Pattern (00:21:25)

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Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Imagery shows polar vortex right over Illinois tonight 11/9/2025. 500mb temps to -42°F. This is coldest in planet and will help energize lake effect snow and will help with its unique placement over Chicago. This episode was episode 1 which many times tends to be most accurate.

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Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Arctic Front and First Snowfall

The Chicago area is under a Winter Storm Watch for late Sunday night into Monday due to an Arctic front and lake-effect snow potential. Rain is expected Saturday evening, transitioning to snow overnight, with the heaviest snow likely from midnight to 8 a.m. Monday. (Or 10am). 

Temperatures will drop sharply, with highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday, and wind chills in the teens Monday morning.

Snowfall Amounts

Official forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) indicate 2–8 inches for Cook County, but localized totals could be higher (possibly double-digit amounts where intense bands set up). Some models suggest up to 15 inches in certain spots, though placement is uncertain.

Snowfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour are possible in the most intense bands. 

Lake Michigan Water Temperature

Lake Michigan surface water temperatures in early November typically range 45–52°F. But currently they are in low to mid 50s which is warm for this time of year.


Lake-Effect Snow Dynamics

Strong temperature contrasts between the lake and the 850 mb level (around 5,000 ft) are necessary for Lake-effect snow. It requires a difference of roughly 23°F or more. 

Northeast winds usually occur at the start of a storm for Chicago. This creates  enhanced lake-effect snow for Chicago. However for winds to be off the lake as a storm departs and Arctic air arrives is uncommon for Chicago. This is what causes lake effect snow. It's also uncommon for this to happen in November due to warm Lake changing precipitation to rain.


Buffalo 2022 Comparison

The Buffalo storm in November 2022 produced over 80 inches of snow in some areas, with snowfall rates up to 6 inches per hour and thundersnow. Comparing this event to that event is reasonable in terms of dynamics, though Chicago’s totals will be far lower.

Timing: Heaviest snow expected overnight Sunday into Monday morning, tapering by late morning Monday.
Wind Gusts: Up to 35 mph, causing blowing snow and reduced visibility.


Chicago: 8.6-9.8 inches
Cicero: 9.8 inches
Oak Lawn: 5.4 inches
Harvey: 6.4 inches
Tinley Park: 5.8 inches
Oswego: 0.3 inches
Plainfield: 0.8 inches
Wheaton: 1.5 inches
Schaumburg: 1.8 inches
Palatine:1.9 inches
Evanston 8.2

These totals are for 12 hour period from 10 pm Sunday night 11/9 to 10am Monday 11/10/25.
They assume a 10 to 1 snow to water ratio and follows the High resolution rapid refresh model as advertised on Windy.com
I used this computer model because it is high resolution which is essential for lake effect snow and seems to be better than the NAM model regarding lake effect snow events from. What I've seen.
It should be noted that while at times the snow to water ratio will be 10 to 1 due to warm Lake, but lake effect often takes on a powdery snow. Should snow to water ratio be double, then amounts could potentially be double whatever listed here in some spots.

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Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Summer heat overtakes the Midwest despite the fact that it's October. This wave of heat will last several days and will be followed by a cooler area of high pressure. Following the high pressure will be a return to another summer heat wave for much of the Midwest, but some of the Midwest may be right along the front seeing well above normal temperatures but not quite a heatwave. Either way rain will be limited during this holiday of succos, but there is a chance for rain Monday night and again Thursday night with minimal impacts. Temperature should remain within room temperature throughout most of the holiday but briefly dropping into the middle 50s for a couple nights in the mid part of the week. If temperatures do exceed 86° during the holiday it would occur towards the end. Until then - 86° heat or higher could be expected until the holiday starts.. this episode covers the most recent Midwest heatwave and covers some of the cities which received temperatures in the 90s for three consecutive days. Some say that this heat is connected to a marine Heat Wave taking place in the North Pacific.

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Alaskan hurricane, Summer heat in the midwest flooding in the desert Southwest, periods of rain and thunderstorms across the southeast and so much more is covered in this episode. This episode also covers the Succos holiday weather.

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.

Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.
New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. 
Contact: [email protected]

Historical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email [email protected] so we can look into it and correct it. 

Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.

Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha