Briefly in the news in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Wednesday, November 4:

* Labour force data due later today is expected to show a slight rise in the unemployment rate to a nine-year-high of 5.3%, with a 0.1% rise in jobs not enough to soak up extra people entering the labour force.

* But the small rise disguises an emerging jobs and health catastrophe for young people who have entered the workforce in the last decade since the start of mass usage of smart phones, the Covid pandemic and heavy job losses since late 2023.

* Stuff’s Bridie Witton reports from official data this morning that almost 90,000 people are now on a jobseeker or supported living benefits because of mental health issues, up by 35,000 over the last decade, including 9,000 during the 2020 and 2021 Covid lockdown periods, and a total of 23,000 since March 2020.

* The damage to a generation’s health and work prospects for life has been compounded by a collapse in employment of young people since early-2023, including the loss of over 80,000 jobs in the 15 to 35 age groups.

* In housing news, Kāinga Ora has sold 171 sections in South Auckland to a developer for a profit, David Fisher reports for The NZ Herald-$, while the Government is waiting for house prices to rise to sell 35 built-but-unoccupied townhouses it had to buy off a Kapiti developer because of an underwrite from 2023, Amy Ridout reports for Stuff.

* Meanwhile, less than a year after the beginning of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals regime, RMA Reform, Infrastructure and Housing Minister Chris Bishop and Resources Minister Shane Jones have gone back to Parliament with rewrites of the law to accelerate the approvals process by another six months.

* The changes give more powers to the two ministers to set national standards and over-rule the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), along with removing the need to consult more widely and curtailing appeal rights.

* The Environmental Defence Society said the changes, which will themselves be fast-tracked through Parliament, were a further assault on the environment and democracy.

* BusinessDesk-$’s Pattrick Smellie and Dileepa Fonseka reported this morning EPA CEO Allan Freeth resigned abruptly yesterday after 10 years in the job in connection with the fast track accleration, quoting Jones as saying Freeth had “definitely missed the memo” about speeding up approvals, and: “I have no doubt that the EPA will improve now that the CEO is going.”

* In climate news, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts last night announced changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and a raft of fast rewrites of the Climate Change Response Act, with details late last night in this MoE release, including stripping the Climate Commission of the right to advise the Government on Emissions Reduction Plans (ERPs).

* Climate Change and ETS consultant Christina Hood wrote on LinkedIn the changes were ‘short-sighted, terrible and making a mockery of the ERP process.’

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The even-deeper scarring of a generation

Economists often refer coldly to the ‘scarring’ effect of recessions on those who happen to be unlucky enough to be coming into the workforce at the same time as jobs are being shed and output is contracting. Without jobs and income, this ‘unlucky’ generation will experience lower incomes, worse wellbeing and more social problems over their entire lifetimes, than those who arrived into the jobs market before and after them.

We are seeing this again with the loss of at least 150,000 net jobs overall since mid-2023, including the loss of 80,000 jobs in the 15-35 age groups. Perhaps ironically, those aged over 35 have gained around 110,000 jobs over that same period, including around 30,000 over 65s who got new jobs and started receiving NZ Superannuation at the same time those under 35 started living on a benefit. (See the charts below)

But the generation coming into the labour market since 2015 have had it doubly or even triply tough because they have had to deal with a worsening of mental health in their generation since the advent of widespread and hours-per-day use of smart phones, which initial studies show damaged the mental health of the youngest and heaviest users the most. This generation were also hit hard during Covid.

Bridie Witton has written an excellent deep-dive this morning on Stuff, titled: Why nearly 90,000 Kiwis aren’t working and subtitled: ‘A growing number of Kiwis are on welfare because of mental health issues, marking a major shift for a system once designed for and focused on physical illness and unemployment.’

She makes the point this generation also faces a Government determined to hit its own target of kicking 50,000 off benefits, starting with making 18 and 19 year olds stay at home and be supported by their parents, if those parents earn over $65,000 per year.

Bridie has gotten hold of MSD data via the Official Information Act showing there were almost 23,000 more people on health-related benefits as of June this year who cited psychological or psychiatric conditions than in March 2020.

The change has been years in the making. But what began as a slow climb through the 2010s was accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, then supercharged by the cost-of-living crisis.

Lockdowns, isolation and economic uncertainty helped push thousands out of work. Now, as the economic shocks linger and everyday costs grow, a larger number of New Zealanders have dropped out of the workforce than during the pandemic. As many as 86,232 New Zealanders now receive Jobseeker Support and Supported Living Payments because mental health conditions prevent them from working. That’s up from 51,345 in 2015 — a 68% increase in a decade.

The sharpest increase came in the year to June, when another 6500 people were added to the Jobseeker–Health mental health category. The Supported Living Payment, designed for people with long-term or permanent incapacity, has also continued to grow steadily, up by more than 4300 since 2022. Bridie Witton for Stuff

Unemployment amoung teenagers has averaged around 25% over the last 15 years, about ten percentage points higher than in the first decade of the century.

Chart of the Day: A jobspocalypse for the young

My Pick n’ Mix of links elsewhere

A few subscribers asked for me to continue the Picks n’ Mixes, even in limited form.

Politics and the Economy

* Thomas Manch for The Post-$: Finance Minister Nicola Willis has doubled local government lender liquidity facility, in anticipation of rising council debt levels.

* Henry Cooke for The Post-$: Rawiri Waititi says kicking out ‘rogue’ MPs not yet considered

* Tova O’Brien for Stuff: Where to from here in the great Te Pāti Māori cluster fudge?

* Deep-dive by Mary Argue & Paris Ibell for RNZ: Retirement village residents descend on Parliament

* Deep-dive by Emma Gleason for The Spinoff: Unpacking the ‘hostile takeover’ bid for Kelston Boys’ High SchoolCan you really just take over a school?

* Column by Joel Maxwell for Stuff: I was asked if I had a SuperGold card. It was funny - then it wasn’t. Joel Maxwell argues that given Māori people die on average seven to eight years earlier than non-Māori, the SuperGold card should lower the age of eligibility for them.

Housing, Climate & Poverty

* Deep-dive by Alexia Russell for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: Behind the $54 billion bill for nicer highways

* RNZ: Another $32 million to be spent fixing Transmission Gully ‘NZTA’s Mark Owen told Morning Report the builder never applied the final chip seal layer so it was not as waterproof as it should be.’

* Greg Ninness for Interest: Barfoot & Thompson’s sales volumes dipped in October with price signals mixed

* Deep-dive by Joel MacManus for The Spinoff: What new population data reveals about why some cities are growing and others aren’t.

* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Emergency housing grants fall by $20m in a year

* OneRoof: NZ bank offers ‘crazy’ home loan rates of 3.99% - lowest in four years

Cartoon: Riding for a fall

Timeline-cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

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